緬甸即將簽署全國性停火協議

Myanmar rebel groups and their long-time government foes are on the verge of sealing a ceasefire deal that supporters hail as historic but critics attack for falling short of hopes kindled by protracted talks.

緬甸反政府武裝與其宿敵緬甸政府即將簽署一項停火協議，支持者稱讚該協議是歷史性的，批評者則抨擊該協議與曠日持久的談判讓人們萌生的希望有差距。

Political leaders, fighters and diplomats will gather on Thursday in Naypyidaw, the former military junta’s purpose-built capital, to ink an agreement billed as a “nationwide ceasefire” to which only eight out of 15 regional movements have signed up.

政治領導人、武裝組織和外交官週四將齊聚內比都，簽署一項被標榜爲“全國性停火”的協議。在緬甸15個地區性運動組織中，只有8個已同意簽署這項協議。

The deal’s backers say it is a crucial foundation that can be built on after landmark elections next month into a full-fledged peace process to end more than 60 years of civil conflict. But sceptics say the organisations that are signing are already in formal or de facto ceasefire agreements, while groups in active conflicts in more northern regions near the Chinese border have held back.

該協議的支持者稱，這項協議是緬甸在下月舉行里程碑式選舉後走向全面和平進程和結束60多年內戰的重要基礎。但懷疑論者稱，將簽署這項協議的組織其實已簽訂正式或事實上的停火協議，而在緬甸更靠北部的緬中邊境附近地區與政府有激烈衝突的組織已拒絕簽署這項協議。

The deal is the product of talks launched after Myanmar’s military handed power to a quasi-civilian government in 2011 after almost half a century of repressive rule. The negotiations ebbed and flowed amid decades of mistrust and fighting in some places, notably in the eastern Kokang region on the frontier with China.

2011年，在經歷了近半個世紀的專制統治後，緬甸軍方把權力移交給一個準文職政府，該停火協議就是此後展開的談判的產物。在數十年缺乏信任以及部分地區（特別是該國東部與中國接壤的果敢地區）爆發戰事的背景下，這場談判經歷了起起伏伏。

Many of the groups that are due to sign are from or linked to the Karen region near the Thai border, which was for years a haven for jungle resistance fighters battling military rule. Organisations that aren’t expected in Naypyidaw include the Kokang fighters and the Kachin Independence Army, which holds areas on the northern frontier with China where vast quantities of drugs, timber and gems are smuggled.

即將簽署這項協議的組織，很多都來自緬泰邊境的克倫地區或與其有關聯。多年來，該地區一直是與軍事統治展開鬥爭的叢林抵抗武裝的避難所。預計不會在內比都出現的組織包括果敢武裝以及克欽獨立軍(Kachin Independence Army)。克欽獨立軍佔據着與中國接壤的北部邊境地區，那裏的藥品、木材和珠寶走私活動猖獗。

Thein Sein, the former Myanmar army general who became president in 2011, has said the other groups will be able to sign later — although some fear the government may try to use the emerging split between the militias as a tool to divide and rule them.

2011年成爲緬甸總統的前緬軍將領登盛(Thein Sein)已表示，其他組織可以日後再簽署這項協議——但一些人擔心，緬甸政府可能企圖利用各武裝組織之間形成的分歧對它們分而治之。

Min Zaw Oo, a top official at the Myanmar Peace Centre, co-ordinator of the ceasefire talks, has claimed that China pressed some holdout groups not to sign the agreement, according to Reuters. He said Beijing was also unhappy with proposals to have official witnesses to the agreement include Japan and western states, which are all vying with China for economic and political sway as this country at the crossroads of south and southeast Asia opens up.

據路透社(Reuters)報道，緬甸和平中心(Myanmar Peace Centre)高級官員、此次停火談判的聯合協調員敏佐烏(Min Zaw Oo)稱，中國要求一些抵抗組織不要簽署這項協議。他表示，中國政府還對停火協議把日本和西方國家列爲官方見證人感到不滿。隨着緬甸這個處於南亞和東南亞交匯處的國家走向開放，日本和西方國家都在與中國爭奪對緬甸的經濟和政治影響力。

Beijing has denied the allegations, saying it has “consistently supported all sides” in the peace talks. Mr Min Zaw Oo later said his comments had been misinterpreted, adding that he was not accusing China of interference.

中國政府否認上述指控，表示“一貫支持緬甸各方”通過和平對話解決分歧。敏佐烏後來表示他的言論被誤讀，並稱他不是在指責中國干預緬甸和平對話。

China, Japan, the EU and India — Myanmar’s other giant neighbour — are now all scheduled to be witnesses, after intensive diplomatic choreography. These and other public backers of the deal are hoping that this symbolic pre-election step is just a start, and not as good as it gets.

在經過密集的外交安排後，中國、日本、歐盟(EU)和印度（緬甸的另一個大型鄰國）現在都將成爲停火協議的見證人。這些國家以及該停火協議的其他公開支持者希望，這一具有象徵意義的選舉前舉措只是一個開始、未來會進一步完善。