布拉特別拿完美風暴作遁詞

I blame Sebastian Junger. The success of The Perfect Storm, the journalist’s 1997 book about a doomed fishing boat gave embattled corporate titans the perfect metaphor for what went wrong on their watch.

我要責怪塞巴斯蒂安•容格(Sebastian Junger)。這名記者撰寫了一本關於一艘漁船沉沒的小說。這本1997年出版的《完美風暴》(The Perfect Storm)的成功給陷入困境的企業巨頭提供了一個完美比喻，用來描述發生在他們眼皮底下的變故。

So here is Dick Fuld, former head of Lehman Brothers, in his first voluntary public appearance since its collapse, explaining last week why the bank went down in 2008: “It isn’t just one single thing, it’s all these things taken together: I refer to it as a perfect storm.” And here is Sepp Blatter, Fifa president, as he prepared the way for his re-election at football’s governing body in Switzerland. Last week’s arrests of Fifa officials, he told delegates, “unleashed a real storm”.

於是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)前掌門人迪克•富爾德(Dick Fuld)上週（自2008年雷曼破產以來首次自願公開露面）解釋該行爲什麼破產時就有了這樣的說法：“這不是單一事件造成的，是所有事件疊加在一起造成的：我把它稱作一場完美風暴。”還有前些時候在瑞士爲自己連任國際足聯(Fifa)主席鋪路的塞普•布拉特(Sepp Blatter)。他對與會代表稱，上週國際足聯官員遭逮捕事件“引發了一場真正的風暴”。（（布拉特已在本週二宣佈辭去國際足聯主席一職——編者注））

Blaming extreme weather is popular with controversial leaders, for good reason. The image of navigating through a tempest conveys personal authority and bravery but also lets them plead helpless innocence of the causes and consequences of what is happening. It is the false-heroic middle way between having to admit you are a fool, who had no idea what was going on, or a knave, who fostered the scandal. Instead, they can look like hard-bitten captains on the bridge, braced against the monstrous waves and wrestling with the wheel, while the elements conspire against them.

受爭議的領導者喜歡指責極端天氣，而且還有充分的理由。駕船穿越暴風雨的形象可以表現出他們個人的權威與勇氣，也可以讓他們對所發生之事的原因與後果辯稱自己無助且無辜。正是這種介於虛僞和英勇之間的東西，讓你不得不承認自己是一個不知道發生了什麼的傻瓜，或是一個鬧出醜聞的不誠實的人。相反，他們可以像站在船橋上的頑強船長一樣，經受巨浪衝擊，牢牢握緊船舵，雖然狂風暴雨在密謀反對他們。

These are great days for collectors of leadership brass neck. In China, Li Hejun, chairman of Hanergy, the solar-panel maker, declared last week that talk of an investigation into the company was “purely rumour, there is no such possibility” and said he would be “the first to know if the authorities were really planning a probe”. Hours after Xinhua, China’s official news agency, aired the interview, the Hong Kong watchdog confirmed it was investigating the affairs of Hanergy Thin Film Power, the group’s listed entity, whose soaring share price crashed last month.

如今是收藏家收集領導者“厚臉皮”的大好時期。在中國，太陽能電池板製造商漢能(Hanergy)董事局主席李河君上週宣稱，有關該公司受到調查的傳言“純粹是謠言，絕對不可能”，並稱，“如果有措施”，他將“第一時間知道”。就在中國官方新聞通訊社——新華社播發這一採訪幾小時後，香港監管機構證實正在調查漢能集團旗下上市公司漢能薄膜發電(Hanergy Thin Film Power)的事務。該公司飆升的股價上月遭遇了斷崖式暴跌。

These are not necessarily lies. In Hanergy’s case, the Hong Kong investigation may have been covert, and it is not clear exactly when Mr Li recorded his interview. As for Lehman, it is true that no “one single thing” did for the bank. Mr Blatter’s earlier protest that he “cannot monitor everyone all of the time” is a statement of the obvious, familiar to anyone who has ever run a large organisation.

這些未必都是謊言。就漢能而言，香港證監會的調查很可能是祕密進行的，而且還不清楚李河君接受採訪的確切時間。至於雷曼，的確並非“單一事件”毀了這家銀行。布拉特先前的抗議——他“不可能每時每刻監控每個人的作爲”——對於任何掌管過一個大型組織的人來說，都是一份平常而又熟悉的聲明。

But there is something more corrosive than leaders lying to the outside world and that is leaders deceiving themselves.

但是，比起領導者對外界撒謊，還有影響更壞的問題，那就是領導者自欺。

Self-belief is a vital part of being an effective leader. Admitting to weakness is taboo. But it is easy for leaders to become overconfident and to start governing just by asserting the facts as they understand them and ignoring others’ legitimate concerns: “Hanergy has never been so good in our history” (Li); “Let this be the turning point” (Blatter).

自信是成爲一名高效領導者的重要因素。承認自己的弱點是大忌。但領導者很容易變得過分自信，並開始在治理中堅持他們所理解的事實卻忽略其他人的合理關切：“漢能處於歷史上最好時期”（李河君語）；“讓此事件成爲轉折點”（布拉特語）。

Mr Fuld has had nearly seven years since the financial crisis to ponder what really happened in 2008. But he is still trying to shape the narrative.

自金融危機爆發以來，富爾德有近7年時間思考2008年究竟發生了什麼。但他仍在試圖編造敘事。

Plenty of chroniclers of the meltdown do believe, like Mr Fuld, that the US government was partly responsible for what occurred. Few would agree, however, that Lehman was a model of prudence, protected, as Mr Fuld put it last week, by “27,000 risk managers” in the form of its stockholding employees. On the contrary, as Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera wrote in All the Devils Are Here, instead of trying to limit exposure to the US housing market between 2006 and 2008, Lehman “decided to double down . . . by financing and investing in big commercial real estate deals”.

像富爾德一樣，很多此次金融崩盤的記錄者都確信，美國政府對所發生的事情負有部分責任。但很少有人會同意，雷曼是謹慎的典範，而且受到“2.7萬名風險經理”以持股員工的形式進行的保護（像富爾德上週所說的）。相反，正如貝塔尼•麥克萊恩(Bethany McLean)與喬•諾切拉(Joe Nocera)在他們合著的《羣魔亂舞》(All the Devils are Here)一書中所寫的，在2006年至2008年期間，雷曼不但沒有設法減少對美國住房市場的敞口，而是“決定通過融資和投資於大型商業地產交易……進行雙倍下注”。

Later, Hank Paulson, former US Treasury secretary, told the Lehman bankruptcy examiner that Mr Fuld was “a person who heard only what he wanted to hear”. Such self-delusion also plagues Mr Blatter. It is the signature trait of overreaching leaders and a clear signal of potential disaster ahead.

後來，美國前財長漢克•保爾森(Hank Paulson)告訴負責雷曼破產的審查員：福爾德是“一個只聽悅耳言論的人”。這樣的自欺欺人同樣表現在布拉特身上。這是權力過度延伸的領導者身上的鮮明特徵，也是未來可能發生災難的一個苗頭。

Compare the Fifa president’s attempt to brazen out the scandal with the way key players reacted in 2001 as Enron imploded. Three weeks after the energy company filed for bankruptcy, but before the extent of the saga of its corruption and self-dealing became clear, Jeff Skilling, former chief executive, talked to the Houston Chronicle. Remember that Skilling, who was later jailed for his role in the affair, had cosigned Enron’s last letter to shareholders, calling it “the right company with the right model at the right time”.

我們可以將布拉特厚顏無恥應對醜聞的做法與2001年安然(Enron)內爆後主要人物的反應方式進行對比。這家能源公司申請破產三週之後（但在其腐敗和謀私交易的各項細節浮出水面之前），前首席執行官傑夫•斯基林(Jeff Skilling)接受了《休斯頓紀事報》(Houston Chronicle)的採訪。請記住他——後來斯基林因其在安然事件中的角色而入獄——聯署了安然致股東的最後一封信，稱這是“正確的公司在正確時間擁有的正確模式”。

“What brought Enron down?” the reporter asked him. “A perfect storm,” he replied.

“什麼原因導致安然破產？”記者問他。“一場完美風暴，”他回答說。