解密原朝鮮公共分配製度催生出的地下經濟

The breakdown of North Korea's public distribution system during the famine years of the mid-1990s fostered the emergence of an underground market economy as the populace were forced to find ways to try and survive.

朝鮮公共分配製度在上世紀90年代中期大饑荒年間瓦解，勞苦平民被迫尋找謀生之道，於是催生了地下市場經濟。

The growth of that economy in subsequent years has been the subject of great interest to observers of the country, particularly the question of whether it might eventually lead to the collapse of the political power structure headed by the ruling Kim family.

隨後數年這個地下經濟的發展，尤其它是否會最終導致金家王朝領導的政治權力結構傾覆，一直是關注朝鮮的人士倍感興趣的研究對象。

A new report helps to shed some light on how the underground economy has developed in one particularly worrying but potentially transformative way.

新發布的一項報告有助於外界瞭解朝鮮地下經濟是如何以一種特別令人擔憂、但或許能帶來變革的方式不斷髮展的。

'Illicit: North Korea's Evolving Operations to Earn Hard Currency,' authored by Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, details how North Korea's illicit economic activities have fostered the emergence of a 'criminal' market economy.

布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)東亞政策研究中心(Center for East Asia Policy Studies)客座高級研究員格雷滕斯(Sheena Chestnut Greitens)撰寫了名爲《朝鮮賺取硬通貨非法運作歷程》(Illicit: North Korea's Evolving Operations to Earn Hard Currency)的報告，細述了朝鮮非法經濟活動如何培育了一個“罪惡”的市場經濟。

The report, largely based on interviews with North Korean defectors, tracks three stages of development of illicit economic activities in North Korea. It starts from the 1970s, when North Korean officials trafficked a range of products such as drugs and counterfeit cigarettes, manufactured by others, at locations where North Korea had diplomatic and trade ties.

報告主要基於對脫北者的訪談，並記錄了朝鮮違法經濟活動的三個發展階段。第一階段始自上世紀70年代，當時朝鮮官員在與該國建交和有貿易往來的地區倒賣毒品和假煙等各類別國生產的產品。

In the second phase from the mid-1990s, North Korea concentrated on the production of illicit goods including counterfeit currency and outsourced distribution to criminal syndicates. Since 2005, the regime has lost its monopoly over some illicit activities such as drug production and sales as a criminal market economy has sprung up, the report says.

上世紀90年代中期朝鮮非法經濟活動進入第二階段，專注於假幣等非法產品的製造，並將分配環節“外包”給犯罪組織。報告稱，隨着非法市場經濟的迅速發展，2005年起朝鮮政權已失去了對毒品生產和銷售等一些非法活動的壟斷地位。

The findings provide 'evidence that a market economy is developing in North Korea, in this case a criminal one that is feeding off the suffering and deprivation of the population,' said Andrew Natsios, co-chair for the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, which released the report.

報告由美國朝鮮人權委員會(Committee for Human Rights in North Korea)發佈。該委員會聯席主席納齊奧斯(Andrew Natsios)稱，報告提供了表明朝鮮市場經濟正在發展的證據，但朝鮮的市場經濟是罪惡的，因爲它依靠的是對百姓的剝削和壓迫。

'No longer limited to elites, the drug trade and other illicit activities now encompass a broader swath of North Korean society than before,' the report says. 'This means that a wider array of North Koreans, elite and ordinary, have opportunities for economic activity that is not dependent on the state and benefit economically from illicit trade.'

報告稱，如今毒品交易等非法活動不再僅限於朝鮮官員，更多社會階層都參與了進來。報告說，這意味著有更多朝鮮人（包括精英和普通人）有機會參與到不依賴政府的經濟活動中，且有機會從非法交易中受益。

While the report notes one of the impacts of the growth of the drug trade in particular is increased threats to the overall health status of North Koreans, one upbeat way to look at the findings is that an expansion of the private sector increases destabilizing risks for the regime. North Korea has previously tried to limit market activity but with little success.

報告指出，毒品交易增長帶來的影響之一是使朝鮮國民整體健康狀況的風險加大，但從好的方面看，私營部門的擴張增加了朝鮮政權的不穩定因素。朝鮮曾試圖限制市場活動，但收效甚微。

It remains unclear whether growth in markets--licit and illicit--will ultimately unseat the dictatorship, but some analysts and defectors believe the growth of private economic activity is the best hope for eventual change.

朝鮮合法及非法市場的發展最終是否會動搖該國獨裁統治仍不得而知，但一些分析人士及脫北者認爲，私營經濟活動的發展是蘊育最終變革的最大希望。