中國在中東歐戰略棋局遇阻

Just three months ago, China was in diplomatic overdrive to establish a grand plan for economic and political cooperation with central and eastern Europe (CEE) at a summit with 16 regional leaders in Bucharest.

三個月前，在羅馬尼亞首都布加勒斯特舉行的中國-中東歐國家領導人會晤上，中國大施外交手段，極力促成與該地區進行經濟和政治合作的宏偉計劃。

Since then, more than $19bn in Chinese investment and loan pledges have flowed to the region, outstripping in scale any previous phase of bilateral economic engagement, according to research by Grison’s Peak, a London-based merchant bank. The $19bn plus in pledges since November accounted for the lion’s share of a total of $22.2bn in signed loan and investment deals between China and the region for all of 2013, the Grison’s Peak figures show.

總部在倫敦的商業銀行Grison’s Peak研究發現，此次會晤之後，中國向中東歐國家承諾的投資和貸款總額已超過190億美元，規模大於以往雙邊經濟合作中的任何一個時期。Grison's Peak的數據顯示，2013年全年，中國與中東歐國家總共簽署了222億美元的貸款和投資協議，而11月份之後這批超過190億美元的承諾資金佔了絕大多數。

But “plans cannot keep pace with changes” as a Chinese phrase puts it. The revolution in Ukraine has thrown up a series of delicate questions for Beijing, which had a “strategic partnership” with the government of ousted president Viktor ine was a key plank in Beijing’s CEE strategy. Of the estimated $19bn in investments and loans announced since November, $8bn was destined for Ukraine. In addition, most of a further $10.9bn for Romania, $783m for Macedonia, $507m for Hungary and $306m for Serbia was in the form of Chinese investment and loan pledges, according to data collected by Grison’s Peak.

但正如一句中國俗話所說，“計劃趕不上變化”。烏克蘭革命給中國政府提出了一系列難題，因爲北京方面與被罷免總統維克多•亞努科維奇(Viktor Yanukovich)的政府擁有“戰略伙伴關係”。

Ukraine has several key attributes from Beijing’s point of view. Logistically, it is a gateway to China’s big markets in western Europe as Beijing ramps up rail freight exports along the “iron silk road”. Its farmland, already the object of ambitious leasing schemes with China, could help secure Chinese imports of grain. Strong military ties include Kiev helping to build engines for Chinese fighter jets and co-operating on other projects as part of the strategic partnership.

在中國的中東歐戰略中，烏克蘭是一個關鍵部分。去年11月以來公佈的約190億美元投資和貸款協議中，有80億美元是和烏克蘭簽署的。此外，Grison’s Peak獲得的數據顯示，在向羅馬尼亞提供的109億美元、向馬其頓提供的7.83億美元、向匈牙利提供的5.07億美元和向塞爾維亞提供的3.06億美元中，大部分都是以中方承諾投資和放貸的形式提供的。

For these reasons and others, Beijing had extended about $10bn in loans to Ukraine even before the $8bn in Chinese investments promised at the end of last year. A key question now is how much of an impact the revolution may have on these commercial arrangements and on Beijing’s broader plans for engagement.

從中國的角度來看，烏克蘭有幾大價值。物流上，烏克蘭是西歐一道通往中國巨大市場的大門，而中國正希望通過“鋼鐵絲綢之路”擴大鐵路貨運出口。烏克蘭的農田有助於保障中國的糧食進口，中烏已制定了龐大農田租賃計劃。兩國軍事關係密切，烏克蘭幫助中國製造戰鬥機發動機，此外雙方還根據戰略伙伴協議在其他項目上合作。

“I don’t see that this development is likely to change China’s investment policy very much,” said Rana Mitter, professor of history and politics of modern China at Oxford University. “It seems to me that China does not have the ideological commitment that Russia has to a particular view of Ukraine.”

出於諸如此類的原因，早在去年底承諾投資80億美元之前，中國就已經向烏克蘭提供了約100億美元的貸款。目前的關鍵問題是，烏克蘭革命會對這些商業安排以及中國加強與中東歐聯繫的全面計劃造成多大影響？

“China’s major issue these days is to encourage other countries to serve its security and trade interests, not to pay much attention to the form of those governments per se,” Mitter added.

牛津大學(Oxford University)當代中國歷史與政治教授拉納•米特(Rana Mitter)表示：“我認爲烏克蘭局勢的變化不太可能顯著影響中國的投資政策。在我看來，中國不像俄羅斯那樣，對烏克蘭的看法存在着意識形態因素。”

This type of pragmatic approach would be broadly consistent with Beijing’s nuanced diplomatic stance during the protests against Yanukovich’s government. The foreign ministry hedged its bets, supporting Kiev’s efforts to “preserve stability” but expressing respect for the “people’s choice”.

“中國目前的主要問題是鼓勵別國照顧它的安全和貿易利益，而不是高度關注這些國家的政府形式本身，”米特補充道。

China’s main preoccupation now will be protecting its economic interests in Ukraine, said Bill Bishop, author of the Sinocism China Newsletter. But it will tread carefully so as to avoid antagonising Russia, which views Ukraine as within its sphere of influence.

這種實用主義的態度與中國政府在亞努科維奇政府遭遇抗議期間的微妙外交立場是相吻合的。中國外交部兩面下注，一方面支持烏克蘭當局“維護穩定”的努力，但另一方面又表示尊重“人民的選擇”。

“I assume Beijing does not want to be at odds with Russia and [Russian president Vladimir] Putin over this, nor does it want a ‘victory’ for the west [US and EU] in a colour revolution,” Bishop said.

Sinocism China Newsletter新聞簡訊的作者利明璋(Bill Bishop)表示，中國的當務之急是保護自身在烏克蘭的經濟利益，但中國會小心行事，避免對抗俄羅斯。俄羅斯認爲烏克蘭在其勢力範圍之內。

“Yes, Beijing will want to protect their economic interests but is there even a new government with whom they can negotiate?” he added. “Ukraine clearly needs cash and Beijing could play a role in a bailout, but I doubt they would do that given the uncertainty and Russia’s concerns.”

利明璋稱：“我認爲北京方面不願意在此事上與俄羅斯和總統普京(Vladimir Putin)起衝突，也不希望西方（美國和歐盟）在顏色革命中獲勝。”

The deals struck during Yanukovich’s visit to China in December were for investments in energy, infrastructure, ports, airlines and food. The largest was with Wang Jing, a Chinese entrepreneur, who signed a $3bn agreement for the first phase of a deep water port construction project in the Crimean peninsula.

“不錯，北京方面希望保護自身經濟利益，但是有沒有新政府跟他們談判都是個問題，”他補充道，“烏克蘭無疑需要資金，中國可以參與救助它，但我懷疑，考慮到局勢的不確定性和俄羅斯的顧慮，中國會不會這麼做。”

The port would be designed to redistribute rail freight flows from the east to Europe by cutting 6,000km off the current shipping routes. A second phase in this envisaged project, costing $7bn, would be focused on grain elevators, crude oil reserves and natural gas production bases, according to Grison’s Peak.

去年12月亞努科維奇訪華，與中方達成能源、基建、港口、航空、糧食等領域的投資合作協議。最大的一筆交易與中國企業家王靖有關，他簽署了價值30億美元的協議，投資克里米亞半島一個深水港建設項目的一期。

However, with armed men seizing Crimea’s regional parliament and government buildings on Thursday amid fears that separatists could split the region from Ukraine, the outlook for Wang’s Crimean port investment looks bleaker.

這個港口項目旨在重新佈局東方至歐洲的鐵路貨流，它可將目前航運路線縮短6000公里。Grison's Peak表示，項目二期預計投資70億美元，將建設配備有升降機的糧食儲備區、原油儲備區和天然氣生產基地。

Some doubt may also attend the closeness of the strategic ties that Kiev under Yanukovich had built up with Beijing, analysts said. Much in this regard depends not on Beijing but on the attitude of Ukraine’s new leaders.

然而，武裝人員週四（2月27日）佔領克里米亞地區議會和政府大樓，外界擔心分離主義分子會將該地區從烏克蘭分離出去。在此背景下，王靖的港口投資前景似乎變得黯淡起來。

Nevertheless, in other areas of its CEE strategy, China is showing no sign yet of scaling back the momentum. In one example this month, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, met with Li Keqiang, his Chinese counterpart, and announced that they had agreed on the financing of a Budapest to Belgrade rail project which they had proposed at the China-CEE summit in Bucharest last November.

分析人士表示，亞努科維奇政府與中國建立的戰略關係的緊密性也存在疑問。這方面主要取決於烏克蘭新領導人的態度，而不是中國政府。

Orban appeared to be keen on seeing further Chinese investment in infrastructure in CEE countries. “Highways and high-speed railways in the North-South direction are still not completed… and central European countries lack resources. We believe we have cooperation opportunities with China in this respect,” Orban was quoted in China’s official media as saying in Beijing.

但在其中東歐戰略的其它領域，中國沒有表現出放慢腳步的跡象。例如本月，匈牙利總理歐爾班•維克托(Viktor Orban)與中國總理李克強會晤，宣佈就布達佩斯至貝爾格萊德鐵路項目的融資問題達成一致，該項目是他們在去年11月的布加勒斯特中國-中東歐領導人會晤上提議的。

James Kynge is the FT's Emerging Markets Editor and an Associate Editor.

歐爾班似乎盼望中國進一步投資中東歐國家基礎設施。據中國官方媒體報道，歐爾班在北京表示：“南北方向的高速公路和高速鐵路還沒有建完……中歐國家缺乏資源。我們相信在這方面與中國有合作機會。”