時事新聞:中國令歐元前景雪上加霜

The euro is more than just on a knife edge.

歐元正命懸一線，但麻煩還不止於此。

Not only are European leaders very publicly failing to produce even a blueprint for saving the single currency in the near term but now China, which has long been one of the currency's greatest champions, might just have to pull the plug.

AFP/Getty Images不僅歐洲國家的領導人未能在衆目睽睽之下拿出在短期內拯救歐元這一單一貨幣的方案，現在中國這個歐元的長期支持者可能也要放棄對歐元的支持了。

More on what will now be a highly disappointing European summit later.

歐盟峯會的負擔更重了。從目前來看，此次峯會的成果將令人大失所望。

A report in The New York Times this week that Chinese officials may be falsifying data to mask the rate of the economic slowdown lends credence to what many have feared - that China could be facing a hard landing after all.

《紐約時報》(New York Times)本週刊登的一篇報道說，中國官員爲掩蓋經濟下行趨勢而發佈虛假數據。該報道印證了許多人一直以來的一種擔憂：中國仍然面臨着硬着陸的風險。

For Beijing, the slowdown will have important implications for the growth of foreign reserves.

對於中國政府來說，經濟增速放緩將對外匯儲備的增長產生重要影響。

And for the euro, this is bad news.

對於歐元來說，這是個壞消息。

For years, as China's dollar-based reserves have grown, the People's Bank of China has pursued a policy of diversification in which the dollars have been sold for euros.

多年以來，由於中國的美元儲備不斷增加，中國央行實施了外儲多樣化的政策，在售出美元的同時增持歐元。

If the Chinese economy is slowing even more than acknowledged, all this support for the euro could come to an end.

如果中國經濟放緩程度比中國政府承認還要嚴重，這種對歐元提供支持的做法就會結束。

Neil Mellor, a senior strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London, suggests that Beijing will now accelerate the pace of reform towards capital account liberalization.

紐約梅隆銀行(Bank of New York Mellon)駐倫敦的高級策略師梅勒(Neil Mellor)表示，中國政府正在加快資本賬戶自由化的改革步伐。

In other words, it will reduce intervention to cap any rise in the Chinese yuan.

換句話說，中國政府將減少對匯率市場的干預，不再限制人民幣升值。

Inflows into the currency should also decline because foreign direct investment will fall, as the economy loses its sheen, and imports should rise, as Beijing looks to domestic consumption to ease its dependence on exports.

隨着經濟增速放緩，外國直接投資水平下降，流入中國的資金也會減少。由於中國尋求通過刺激國內消費，降低對出口的依賴，中國的進口將會增加。

For the euro, the timing of this shift in Chinese policy could prove particularly nasty.

對歐元來說，此次中國政策轉向的時機糟透了。

This week's summit of European leaders, starting in Brussels on Thursday, is seen by many as a last chance to save the euro.

許多人認爲，本週四在布魯塞爾召開的歐洲領導人峯會將是拯救歐元的最後機會。

Without some convincing plan for moving the euro zone toward a sustainable fiscal union, the cost of funding the debts of weak economies like Spain and Italy will continue to rise.

如果沒有讓歐元區成爲可持續的財政聯盟的令人信服的計劃，爲西班牙和意大利等脆弱經濟體注資的成本將繼續上升。

What makes this summit different from the many others is that the debtors at risk are much larger than before and that the European Central Bank may not be able to help calm financial markets this time around.

此次峯會的不同尋常之處在於，承受風險的債務人的規模比以往大得多，而且歐洲央行(European Central Bank)這次可能也無法讓金融市場恢復平靜。

An attempt two weeks ago to prop up Spanish banks with fresh capital funding has yet to be fully implemented and now Italian banks are starting to face funding pressures too.

兩週之前擬定的以新資本爲西班牙銀行注資的計劃還沒有完全落實，如今意大利銀行也開始面臨融資壓力。

In the past, the ECB has thrown money at the problem in the form of cheap funding for European banks.

過去，歐洲央行以向歐洲銀行提供廉價貸款的方式解決問題，這種做法實際上是在燒錢。

But evidence is rising that this isn't working and that the ECB is not only stoking problems for the future but ruining its reputation for monetary probity.

但是，越來越多的證據表明，這次採取同樣的做法於事無補，歐洲央行不僅是在爲未來埋下隱患，而且還會毀掉自己財政自律方面的聲譽。

The problem for the euro is that even with these pressures building in financial markets there is little sign that European leaders are any closer to resolving key issues that would help secure the future of the single currency.

歐元的問題是，就算金融市場的壓力與日俱增，幾乎沒有任何跡象顯示出歐洲的領導人有望解決關鍵問題，爲這個單一貨幣的未來提供保障。

Reports early in the week that key European Union leaders were producing a plan for keeping member countries in line by vetoing national budgets lifted hopes briefly that the region could be moving closer to some form of jointly guaranteed bonds that would help cut funding costs for struggling governments.

本週早些時候有報道說，主要的歐盟領導人正在制定方案，目的是讓成員國保持一致立場，否決國家預算，這個消息給了人們短暫的希望，讓人們以爲歐元區朝着某種形式的聯合擔保債券越走越近，從而能夠幫助舉步維艱的政府削減融資成本。

With German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly stating that this is not going to happen “as long as I live,” chances are that the summit will end with little more than the usual anodyne promises for action.

有報道稱，德國總理默克爾表示：只要我還活着，就不會有這種事情發生。可能的結果是，此次峯會將如同往常一樣，除了一些安慰性的行動承諾外什麼也達不成。

For the euro, this could prove very much a case of too little too late.

對於歐元來說，這就是幫助來得太晚而且也嫌太少的典型例子。

And with support from China likely to ebb at the same time, the outlook for the single currency is looking even bleaker than it has for some time.

由於來自中國支持很可能同時減少，歐元的前景與之前的一段時間相比更加暗淡。