香港奢侈品市場風光不再
Wander around Hong Kong’s Harbour City on any given weekend, and among the crowds thronging the shopping mall, talk of a downturn might appear overdone. But it is quieter than in 2014, when queues of mainland Chinese formed just to get into luxury boutiques, driving sales that made the mall responsible for almost a tenth of the city’s entire retail spend.
找一個週末在香港的海港城(Harbour City)逛一逛，在商場擁擠的人羣中，談論衰退似乎有點小題大做。但這裏的確比2014年安靜多了，那時候從中國內地來的遊客排成長隊，只爲進入這裏的奢侈品專賣店，帶來的銷售額讓這家商場幾乎佔了全港零售消費額的十分之一。
Recent retail news in Hong Kong has been disappointing. Year-on-year sales were down 21 per cent in February, according to government figures, as Chinese tourists sought new experiences in cities such as Seoul, Tokyo and Paris. After stripping out price changes, this was the biggest fall in Hong Kong retail sales since September 1998. Chow Tai Fook, the largest Chinese jewellery chain, said this month that it expects profits to be down 40-50 per cent on “weaker consumer sentiment in [the] Greater China region”.
香港零售業的近期新聞一直讓人失望。隨着內地遊客到首爾、東京和巴黎等城市尋求新體驗，根據政府數據，香港2月零售銷售額同比下降21%。在剔除價格變化後，這是香港零售銷售額自1998年9月以來的最大跌幅。中國最大的珠寶連鎖店周大福(Chow Tai Fook)本月表示，預計利潤將因爲“大中華區消費者意願減弱”而下滑40%到50%。
While Hong Kong’s swift change of fortune — as recently as 2014 Harbour City boasted the world’s highest sales per square foot — is unlikely to be exactly replicated elsewhere, it contains lessons for luxury watchers on how quickly China’s appetite for upscale goods and experiences can shift.
就在2014年，海港城還自豪地宣稱其每平方英尺銷售額爲世界最高。香港零售業的風雲變幻不太可能在別的地方完全重現，同時也給奢侈品行業的觀察人士帶來一個教訓：中國人對高端商品和體驗的興趣轉移得有多快。
Analysts attribute China’s changing habits to several factors, including exchange rate moves, but more importantly to evolving habits and tastes.
分析人士將中國人消費習慣的變化歸因於幾種因素，包括匯率變動，但更重要的是習慣和品味的不斷變化。
“The luxury experience is not just about shopping. In Hong Kong, all the luxury brands are here and some of the fast fashion brands too — but there is not much diversity at mid-price points and there are a limited number of museums or cultural activities,” says Aaron Fischer, head of consumer and gaming research at brokerage CLSA. “But go to Tokyo, Seoul, Paris or Milan and you have a much wider number of options.”
“奢侈體驗並非只包含購物。在香港，奢侈品牌應有盡有，還有一些快時尚品牌——但中端商品不太豐富，博物館或者文化活動的數量也有限，”里昂證券(CLSA)主管消費品和博彩行業研究的艾倫•費舍爾(Aaron Fischer)說，“但如果去東京、首爾、巴黎或者米蘭，你的選擇要多得多。”
Japan and South Korea have become particularly hot, helped by favourable exchange rates. According to CLSA’s luxury price checks, goods in Tokyo 12 months ago were about 20 per cent cheaper than in Hong Kong — far from their long-run average of being about 20 per cent more expensive. But more recently, the yen’s rise against the US dollar — to which Hong Kong’s dollar is pegged — means that Japanese prices have again become more expensive, with a premium of roughly 10 per cent.
受到有利的匯率的助推，日本和韓國變得尤爲熱門。根據里昂證券的奢侈品價格調查，12個月前在東京售賣的商品要比在香港便宜20%——與長期以來東京比香港貴20%的情況相去甚遠。但最近，日元相對於美元升值，而港幣和美元掛鉤，這意味着日本的商品價格再次變得更加昂貴，大約比香港貴10%。
More important for the luxury sector is the fact that last year marked a sea-change in habits: for the first time since it began its research in 2013, FT Confidential Research found Chinese tourists spent more on accommodation, food and entertainment combined abroad than on shopping. Year on year, shopping fell on average 6.9 per cent, and 10 per cent among wealthier travellers.
對於奢侈品行業而言，更重要的是，去年標誌着消費者習慣出現了重大變化：英國《金融時報》旗下研究部門“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)自2013年開始這項研究以來，發現在海外旅遊的過程中，去年中國遊客花在住宿、食物和娛樂上的總支出首次超過了購物支出。購物支出同比平均下降6.9%，較富裕遊客的購物支出更是下降了10%。
Analysts put this down to well-travelled Chinese becoming more discerning. “The first time I went to Paris I bought a Hugo Boss suit because I could and it was my first trip. Now I buy coffees, I don’t buy more suits,” says Spencer Leung, a consumer industry specialist at UBS.
分析人士將這歸結於旅遊經歷豐富的中國人正變得更有眼光。“我第一次去巴黎的時候買了一套Hugo Boss的西裝，因爲我買得起，而且那是我第一次旅行。現在我買咖啡，我不買更多的西裝了，”瑞銀(UBS)駐香港消費行業專員樑裕昌(Spencer Leung)說。
Mr Leung attributes the impressive recent rise in overseas trips and the sales growth for favoured brands to the pent-up demand within China where, for years, rising personal wealth was held back by travel restrictions.
樑裕昌將近期中國出境遊大增和受青睞品牌銷售額增長歸因於中國受到壓抑的需求。多年來，中國人日益增長的個人財富受到旅行限制的束縛。
“We haven’t had this situation anywhere else — where so much demand was held back. For Chinese, the world opened up much more quickly only after 2012 when countries started fighting for the Chinese tourist dollar and eased visa restrictions,” says Mr Leung.
“其他任何地方都沒有過這樣的情況——有如此之多的需求被抑制。對中國人來說，在2012年後世界的開放要快得多，各國開始爭奪中國遊客的美元並放鬆簽證限制，”樑裕昌說。
Changing habits among western shoppers are repeated with their Chinese counterparts, particularly in fashion. Younger consumers are increasingly interested in niche brands they discover online — and which may not even need any physical presence such as a flagship store to drive sales.
西方購物者習慣的變化也在中國消費者身上重現，尤其是在時尚方面。更年輕的消費者對他們在線上找到的小衆品牌日益感興趣——這些品牌可能甚至都不需要如旗艦店等任何線下實體來拉動銷售。
Global luxury brands have had mixed fortunes among Chinese consumers in the past year. According to FT Confidential Research’s Annual Chinese Outbound Tourism report, Chanel increased its popularity, with 26 per cent of respondents buying the brand, up from 20 per cent. Other winners include Coach, Hermès and Gucci, while Dior and Armani lost share.
過去一年中，全球奢侈品牌在中國消費者中間的人氣有升有降。根據FT“投資參考”的《中國出境遊年度報告》，香奈兒(Chanel)的人氣提高了，購買該品牌的受訪者比例從20%上升到26%。其他的贏家包括蔻馳(Coach)，愛馬仕(Hermès)和古馳(Gucci)，而迪奧(Dior)和阿瑪尼(Armani)的市場份額下降了。
For newer entrants, “to reach the level of brand awareness in China of a Chanel or a Louis Vuitton is going to take years,” says Aude Bousser, founder of LBB Asia, a luxury brand consultancy.
對於新入行者，“要在中國達到像香奈兒或者路易威登(Louis Vuitton)那樣的品牌知名度需要許多年，”奢侈品牌諮詢機構LBB Asia的創始人奧德•布塞(Aude Bousser)說。
The survey puts much of Chanel’s gains down to its bold strategy of cutting prices for some products by as much as 20 per cent in the mainland and in popular overseas destinations, including Hong Kong. This move is attributed in part to making up for the weakness of the euro against the renminbi and also to combating the grey market, where goods are sold through unauthorised retailers. Chanel increased prices in Europe at the same time so they would be “harmonised”, the company said.
該調查將香奈兒人氣上升的一大原因歸結於其大膽的策略。在中國內地以及熱門的境外目的地（包括香港），香奈兒將某些產品降價高達20%。此舉被認爲部分是爲了彌補歐元對人民幣貶值，同時也是爲了打擊灰色市場（商品通過未授權的零售商賣出）。香奈兒同時在歐洲提高了價格以達到“協調”，該公司表示。
Among the challenges of working out prices and retaining Chinese shoppers, one of the most remarkable features is the unmatched pace of change.
在定價和留住中國購物者的種種挑戰中，最顯著的一個特徵是變化快得讓人無法跟上步伐。
Businesses catering to China’s luxury appetite are catching on. Despite the lack of queueing these days in Hong Kong’s Harbour City, last year the mall’s shift in strategy towards focusing on the overall experience helped pull in higher gross revenues than in the boom years — and bigger profits, too.
致力於迎合中國人奢侈品口味的企業正在迎頭趕上。儘管近來香港海港城少有排隊的現象，去年這家商場的策略轉向更着重整體體驗，這幫助實現了比繁榮時期更高的總收入——以及更高的利潤。
