中國人口老齡化蘊含巨大商機

In Confucian philosophy it is taken for granted that children will look after their parents. In 21st-century China, things are proving to be very different. With most adults working full time, plus the demographic issues resulting from the one-child policy, the country presents a fascinating case for those interested in the social and economic challenges of ageing populations, not to mention the business opportunities.

按照儒學觀點，子女照顧年老父母是天經地義的。但在21世紀的中國，情況已經變得大爲不同。由於大多數成年人都有全職工作，加上獨生子女政策引發的人口問題，中國不僅給研究人口老齡化所引發社會與經濟挑戰的人提供了一個極有吸引力的例子，而且因爲老齡化而蘊含着巨大商機。

For just this reason Florian Kohlbacher moved to China in August after 11 years studying demographic change in Japan — almost 50 per cent of the population of Japan is aged 50 or older.

正因如此，弗洛裏安•科爾巴赫(Florian Kohlbacher，見上圖)去年8月來到了中國。此前，他花了11年研究日本人口變化——該國50歲以上人口已經佔到總人口的近50%。

Now he is associate professor of marketing and innovation at the International Business School Suzhou, part of Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, where he will head up the Research Institute on Ageing and Society.

科爾巴赫現爲蘇州西交利物浦大學國際商學院的營銷與創新學副教授，並將領導老齡化與社會研究所(Research Institute on Ageing and Society)。

The business school will take the lead in the institute to focus on the business implications of population ageing, though at least 10 other departments, including public health, architecture and industrial design, will be involved,

該商學院將牽頭組建該研究所，重點研究人口老齡化蘊含的商業意義，而包括公共衛生、建築和工業設計在內的至少10個其他院系也將參與研究。

Nationwide problems

全國性問題

With a population of 1.4bn, part of the issue in China is its scale, says Prof Kohlbacher, although the one-child policy has exaggerated the demographic trend. On top of this is China’s economic status. Japan was rich before the rise in its ageing population; China is not there yet. “The whole social system is not ready for this,” warns Prof Kohlbacher.

科爾巴赫表示，由於擁有14億人口，中國的部分問題與其規模有關，但獨生子女政策又放大了這種人口老齡化趨勢。還有一個問題是中國的經濟狀況。日本在出現人口老齡化問題之前已經是個富國，而中國目前還不是富國。“整個社會體系並未準備好迎接人口老齡化，”科爾巴赫教授警告稱。

A Chinese government report published in September pointed out that 8 per cent of China’s consumption related to products and services for older people, a market worth Rmb4tn.

去年9月中國政府公佈的一份報告指出，與老年人相關的商品和服務佔中國國內生產總值(GDP)的8%，老年市場潛力達4萬億人民幣。

By 2050, according to the report, that proportion of gross domestic product will rise to a third.

該報告預測，到2050年，老年人消費佔GDP的比例將提高至三分之一。

“This is a real business opportunity,” says Prof Kohlbacher. “Though 2050 might be far away, this is something to work on immediately. But companies are not putting much thought into it.”

“這是一個實實在在的商機，”科爾巴赫教授說，“雖然2050年還很遙遠，但現在就要採取行動，而企業界對此並未予以太多關注。”

It is an attitude he finds hard to fathom. “Managers have problems converting these trends into specific applications. Management is about uncertainty, but demographics is one area where forecasting actually works.”

他覺得這種態度令人費解。“企業管理者在具體利用這些趨勢方面存在問題。管理必然面對不確定性，但在人口問題上，預測確實有用。”

Impact on business

對商業的影響

First there is the ageing workforce. In China women usually retire at 55 and men at 60, so companies are losing people with tremendous experience and knowledge.

首先是存在老年勞動力。在中國，女性一般55歲退休，男性60歲退休，因此企業正在流失具有豐富經驗和知識的人才。

Second, life expectancy in China is now 76, which means a healthy old age is increasingly achievable, which could lead to a tremendous demand for products and services for the “silver-hair market” as it is known in China, either through the adaptation of existing products or the development of new ones.

其次，中國目前的預期壽命是76歲，這意味着健康的晚年可期，將導致對“銀髮市場”商品與服務的巨大需求，企業可以通過對現有產品進行改造和開發新產品，滿足這種需求。

The travel industry is a prime example, says Prof Kohlbacher. “It was something they [older people] couldn’t do in their youth because China was cut off.”

科爾巴赫教授說，旅遊業就是一大例子。“由於中國以前比較閉塞，他們（老年人）年輕時無法旅遊。”

Need for innovation

創新需求

Pharmaceuticals is another obvious market, as are care homes and nursing services. And in the west premium cars are popular with older people, says Prof Kohlbacher. What is more, in China, older people have money to spend. Traditionally they passed on wealth to their children and grandchildren, but the one-child policy has changed this and they are now thinking more about themselves.

製藥業是另一個顯而易見的市場，還有養老院和護理機構。科爾巴赫教授說，在西方，高端護理在老年人當中很受歡迎。此外，中國老年人手頭有錢。傳統上，他們會把財富留給子女和孫輩，但獨生子女政策改變了這種情況，他們現在會更多爲自己着想。

“This means things are special in China. It can already serve as a laboratory for us to study an ageing society,” he says. He believes this research will become more significant in future. “A lot of things here have to be built from scratch, so it is a new approach.”

他說：“這表明中國有着特殊的情況。中國已經可以成爲我們研究老齡化社會的一個實驗室。”他認爲，這種研究在今後會變得更加有意義。“中國的許多東西都要從零開始，因此這是一條新的道路。”

Alternative research

其他研究項目

In the US, Boston College has an institute for ageing and work, while MIT Sloan has its AgeLab focusing on the labour market. But given the scale of the problem, rues Prof Kohlbacher, the levels of research are woeful.

在美國，波士頓學院(Boston College)設有一個老齡化與工作研究所，麻省理工學院斯隆管理學院(MIT Sloan)設有專門研究勞動力市場的老齡實驗室(AgeLab)。但科爾巴赫教授遺憾地表示，由於老齡化問題已經相當嚴峻，當前的研究水平還很低。