中國重工業意外大幅下滑

HONG KONG — As demand dwindles, steel prices in China have fallen 12 percent in the first five weeks of this year, almost as much as in all of 2014.

香港——隨着需求的減少，中國鋼材價格在今年的頭五週下降了12%，幾乎相當於2014年全年的降幅。

The tonnage of China’s imports of rubber, oil, iron ore and other industrial materials also fell sharply in January. And the global market for bulk freighter charters is in free fall, already below levels in the worst days of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009.

今年1月，中國橡膠、石油、鐵礦石及其他工業材料的進口量也急劇下降。全球散貨船包租市場一落千丈，已經跌至2008年底2009年初全球金融危機期間，最糟糕的水平之下。

”In the past two months, it has been more or less a vertical correction, and this is a proxy for China,” said Basil M. Karatzas, a Manhattan ship broker.

曼哈頓的船舶經紀人巴西勒·M·卡拉察斯(Basil M. Karatzas)說，“過去兩個月有些像是直線下降，這反映了中國的情況。”

Heavy industry in the country, the world’s second-largest economy, is experiencing a much sharper downturn than was apparent or expected even several weeks ago. That slowdown seems to be mirrored to a lesser extent in other sectors. But the full scope of China’s economic weakness is obscured by limited data, as the country prepares for a nationwide, weeklong holiday beginning Feb. 18, in observance of the Lunar New Year.

中國是世界第二大經濟體，中國重工業的下滑程度，比幾周前顯示的情況或預期的情況都要糟糕。這種放緩似乎在其他領域也有較小程度的體現。但由於中國正在準備迎接從2月18日開始的長達一週的全國假日，以慶祝春節，因而數據有限，中國經濟走軟的總體情況並不明確。

”It’s too early to be saying we’re moving toward disaster, but there’s nothing in this data to be cheery about,” said Louis Kuijs, the chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)首席中國經濟師高路易(Louis Kuijs)說，“現在說我們正在走向災難還爲時過早，但這些數據不怎麼令人高興。”

Following its standard practice, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will not release a wide range of monthly economic statistics for January — a month in which the timing of the Lunar New Year, from late January to mid-February, can distort figures. So investors, business executives and others will get only limited, partial figures on industrial production, real estate investment, retail sales and other crucial barometers until mid-March, when figures for all of January and February are scheduled to be released.

按照慣例，中國國家統計局不會全面公佈1月份的各項經濟數據。1月時春節即將到來，這種情況會對數據產生扭曲。因此，投資者、企業高管及其他人在3月中旬之前，只能看到有關工業生產、房地產投資、零售銷售和其他關鍵指標的有限的部分數據。1月和2月的全部數據將於3月中旬發佈。

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, signaled its concern last week when it unexpectedly cut the proportion of assets that banks must Hold as reserves, freeing them to lend about $100 billion to businesses and consumers. The reserve requirement had not been cut since 2012.

中國的央行中國人民銀行上週發出了擔憂的信號，出人意料地降低了銀行必須作爲儲備而持有資產的比例，釋放了1000億美元（約6000億元人民幣）的資金，爲銀行向企業和消費者發放貸款提供了空間。這是自2012年以來，央行首次下調存款準備金率。

China’s General Administration of Customs released trade data on Sunday that showed a slight dip in exports. Imports plunged, although that was partly because the effect of falling tonnages of key commodities was compounded considerably by lower commodity prices.

中國海關總署週日公佈的數據顯示，出口額略有下降，進口額大幅下降。進口額降幅巨大的部分原因在於，關鍵大宗商品進口量下降的同時，這些商品價格也顯著降低了。

The statistics agency plans to release inflation data Tuesday morning in Beijing. Producer prices have been falling faster and faster since last July, partly because of lower commodity prices, and are expected to be down close to 4 percent in January compared with a year earlier. Consumer prices have nearly stopped rising.

國家統計局計劃週二上午在北京公佈通脹數據。去年7月以來，生產物價的下降也越來越快，其部分原因是大宗商品價格下降，根據預期1月的生產物價同比將下降近4%。消費物價幾乎已經停止上漲。

Some businesses selling consumer products are complaining of weak sales this winter. “Our business has slowed down in recent months; I think it has to do with the overall economic slowdown in China, as well as internationally,” said Fred Zhang, the sales manager at the Qingdao Oulang Hair Product Company, a small maker of wigs in Qingdao.

有些出售消費品的企業抱怨，今年冬季銷售情況不景氣。青島小型假髮製造商青島歐朗發製品有限公司的銷售經理弗雷德·張說，“最近幾個月，我們的業務已經放緩了，我認爲這與中國經濟的整體走軟有關。”

China has many tools to halt a slowdown, although all of them have potentially undesirable side effects. The banking system is still under tight central government control and can be told to step up lending further. Overall credit, though, has already grown faster as a share of economic output since 2009 than practically anywhere except Ireland. Some restrictions on housing market speculation have been lifted, at the risk of making homes more expensive.

中國有許多可以阻止經濟放緩的工具，不過都有潛在的副作用。銀行系統仍然被中央政府嚴格控制，政府可能會命令銀行進一步擴大貸款規模。然而，2009年以來，中國總信貸在經濟產出中所佔比例的增長速度，其實已經超過了除愛爾蘭之外的所有經濟體。一些旨在遏制房地產市場投機的限制政策已經取消，儘管這樣有擡高房價的風險。

A slowdown in home construction and car sales has contributed to trouble in the steel and iron ore sectors and in the energy sector. The tonnage of iron ore imports is down 9.3 percent in January from a year ago, while the tonnage of imports of refined products like gasoline and diesel was down 37.6 percent.

房屋建設和汽車銷售的放緩，給鍊鋼和鐵礦石行業，以及能源領域帶來了困難。1月，鐵礦石進口總量同比下降9.3%，而汽油和柴油等精煉石油產品的進口總量也下降了37.6%。

Some of the slowdown in industrial commodity imports last month may reflect that many Chinese companies built above-average stockpiles last autumn as prices were falling, and now find themselves with scant room to store more. They also face losses on their earlier purchases, as prices have continued to drop.

上個月，工業用大宗商品進口的某些放緩跡象或許反映出，去年秋天價格下跌時，許多中國企業都積累了高於平均水平的庫存，現在已經沒有多少空間儲存更多了。由於價格持續下降，它們過去採購的商品也可能會造成損失。

In the iron ore sector last autumn, “they bought every single cargo, and they were able to buy at lower and lower prices,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, a commodity analyst and managing director of Commodore Research & Consultancy in New York.

大宗商品分析師、紐約Commodore研究與諮詢公司的董事總經理傑弗裏·蘭茲伯格(Jeffrey Landsberg)說，去年秋季，在鐵礦石部門，“它們買下了每一批貨，而且還能以越來越低的價格買進。”

With the purchases slowing, ship charters have slowed to a crawl. Large freighters that cost $8,000 to $9,000 a day to operate, plus $20,000 or more a day in interest payments and other ownership costs, are now leasing for about $4,000.

隨着採購的步調放緩，包租船隻的業務也幾近停滯。大型貨船每天的運營成本在8000到9000美元，再加上超過2萬美元的利息以及其他成本，但現在的租金只有大約4000美元。

The daily cost to charter a so-called capesize freighter, a large ship particularly used to supply China, has fallen fastest of all, down 75 percent since mid-November.

在所有船型中，包租海岬型船每天所需的花費降得最快，自11月中旬以來降了75%。這種大型貨船經常被用來給中國運貨。

“It’s pretty grim at the moment,” said Tim Huxley, the chief executive of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport, a large Hong Kong shipping line. “The bulk carrier market is at the lowest it has been in 30 years.”

“目前的情況非常糟糕，”香港大型航運公司華光海運控股有限公司(Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings)的首席執行官蒂莫西·赫胥黎(Timothy Huxley)說。“散裝貨輪市場目前處在30年來的最低點。”