歐美投行今年首季交易業務大幅下滑56%
Global investment banks suffered declines of as much as 56 per cent in their trading businesses in the first three months of the year, analysts believe, stoking fears of further lay-offs for staff and lower dividends for shareholders.
分析師們認爲，全球投資銀行在今年頭三個月遭受高達56%的交易業務下跌，引發人們對於員工面臨進一步裁員、股東面臨股息下調的擔心。
Europe’s shrinking investment banks bore the full brunt of the difficult environment for the buying and selling of assets such as bonds, stocks and commodities on behalf of clients. It was highlighted by Credit Suisse’s admission last week that its trading revenue had fallen 40-45 per cent this year.
交易業務（代表客戶買入和賣出債券、股票和大宗商品等資產）的艱難局面，讓歐洲不斷縮水的投行遭受沉重打擊。突顯這一局面的消息是，瑞信(Credit Suisse)上週承認，今年以來其交易收入下降40%-45%。
Not only are many European banks reorganising and trying to sell assets into a falling market but they also have less exposure to the US market, which has fared better than Europe and Asia.
許多歐洲的銀行不僅在進行重組，試圖在一個不斷下跌的市場出售資產，而且它們對錶現好於歐洲和亞洲的美國市場的敞口較小。
But Wall Street’s biggest banks are suffering too, with analysts predicting first-quarter falls in trading revenue of up to 48 per cent for Goldman Sachs and 56 per cent for Morgan Stanley as slowing Chinese growth, stubbornly low oil prices and fading hopes of a US interest rate rise weigh heavily on client activity and market performance.
但是，華爾街各大銀行的日子也不好過。分析師們預計，高盛(Goldman Sachs)第一季度的交易收入將下降最多48%，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首季交易收入將下降最多56%，原因是中國經濟增長放緩、油價持續處於低位以及美國加息前景日益渺茫，都嚴重拖累了客戶活躍度和市場表現。
The difficult first quarter shows the challenges faced by investment banks as they try to create sustainable profitability now that post-crisis reforms have limited opportunities and raised costs.
第一季度的困難使各投資銀行面對的挑戰表露無遺：在金融危機過後的改革既限制機遇又推高成本的情況下，它們試圖打造可持續的盈利能力。
Jon Peace, banks analyst at Nomura, said the trading slump would have practical implications for European banks who still need to build capital to satisfy new regulations. “Weaker trading profits will delay the return of normalised cash dividends for the weaker banks and limit the absolute dividend payouts for the stronger banks,” he said.
野村證券(Nomura)銀行業分析師喬恩•皮斯(Jon Peace)表示，交易業務低迷將對歐洲那些仍需要充實資本以滿足新規的銀行產生實際影響。“更爲疲弱的交易利潤將使那些較弱銀行推遲現金股息迴歸正常化，並限制那些較強銀行的股息絕對值，”他說。
Huw van Steenis, London-based banks analyst at Morgan Stanley, said it could take more than three years for investment banks to “structurally remove cost and capital” to deal with the new market realities.
摩根士丹利駐倫敦的銀行業分析師休•範斯蒂尼斯(Huw van Steenis)表示，各家投行可能需要三年以上才能“從結構上移除成本和資本”，以應對新的市場現實。
Banks have already begun pruning. Credit Suisse has announced 2,000 extra job cuts in its markets division after a brutal first quarter and Morgan Stanley said late last year it would cull 1,200 jobs in fixed income and back- office functions.
各銀行已開始裁減人員。瑞信在經歷慘淡的第一季度後，已宣佈在其市場部門追加裁員2000人，而摩根士丹利在去年末就表示，將在固定收益和後臺職能部門裁減1200個崗位。
In Europe, seven analysts polled by the Financial Times predicted that the top four investment banks — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS and -Barclays — suffered an average collapse of about 25 per cent in trading revenues for the first quarter of the year.
在歐洲，接受英國《金融時報》調查的7位分析師預測，四大銀行——瑞信、德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)、瑞銀(UBS)以及巴克萊(Barclays)——今年第一季度平均遭受了約25%的交易收入下滑。
Kinner Lakhani, analyst at Deutsche, said European banks had been hit by a “perfect storm” of concerns about China, energy and global growth. “The cost of exiting non-core positions is also likely to have gone up sustainably as buyers demand a higher liquidity premium,” he said.
德銀分析師金納•拉克哈尼(Kinner Lakhani)表示，人們對於中國、能源以及全球經濟增長的多重擔憂湊在一起，對歐洲各銀行造成了重創。“隨着買家要求更高的流動性溢價，退出非核心頭寸的成本也可能已經持久性上漲了，”他說。
On Wall Street, the five leading banks — Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America — are expected to see trading revenues fall an average of almost 25 per cent when they report first-quarter results next month, according to six analysts polled.
接受調查的6位分析師預測，華爾街五大主要銀行——高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗集團(Citigroup)和美國銀行(Bank of America)——下月公佈第一季度業績時，預計將報告交易收入平均下降近25%。
