暴漲之後 中國股市週二大幅下跌

HONG KONG — A tremendous rally in China’s stock markets showed its first hint of weakening on Tuesday, with the main Shanghai share index dropping more than 5 percent.

香港——週二，中國股市的火爆勢頭第一次表現出了疲軟的跡象，滬指跌幅超過5%。

Despite signs in China of slowing economic growth and a slumping property market, the mainland’s stock markets have been resurgent in recent months, with the Shanghai Composite Index up almost 50 percent since July. On Monday, the index pushed above the 3,000-point level for the first time since early 2010.

儘管中國經濟呈現增速放緩，房地產市場也陷入低靡，但近幾個月來，大陸股市強勁反彈，上證綜合指數較7月暴漲了50%。週一，股指突破3000點大關，這還是2010年以來第一次。

But the rally has been largely fueled by individual retail investors, who have been piling into the market and increasingly resorting to margin financing, or short-term borrowing, to purchase shares — meaning that the bull market run could unravel in equally rapid fashion.

但這次股市大回暖基本是個體散戶帶動的，他們大舉入市，很多人還藉助非主流融資手段或短期貸款炒股。這意味着本次牛市很可能會同樣突然地瓦解。

On Tuesday, the Shanghai index showed its first signs of stress, plunging in the afternoon trading session to close 5.4 percent lower, at 2,856.27 points. The benchmark index for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also fell, closing 4.2 percent lower.

週二，滬指表現出第一個乏力的跡象，下午開始下跌，以2856.27點報收，下降5.4%。深圳證券交易所的基準指數也下跌，收盤時跌幅達4.2%。

Still, analysts were reluctant to describe Tuesday’s sell-off as an end to the rally, since broad sentiment among Chinese investors remained positive toward share markets, given the relative weak performance of other popular investments, like residential properties.

但分析師仍持謹慎態度，不願輕易斷言週二的拋售代表本輪牛市終結。鑑於其他常見投資方式如住房市場仍然相對低靡，中國投資人對股市的普遍情緒依然樂觀。

“Although the recent rise in leverage sharply heightens the risk of extreme volatility, with a near-term 10 percent correction in the Shanghai market perfectly possible — even likely — there are good reasons to believe that Chinese equities have now moved into a new, more bullish phase,” Joyce Poon, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, a financial research company, wrote on Tuesday in a research note.

“雖然槓桿率的近期上升大大加劇了極端波動的風險，上海股市完全有可能出現10％的近期修正，甚至也許不可避免，但有充分的理由認爲，中國股市現在已經進入了一個新的、更牛市階段，“經濟研究公司龍洲經訊(GaveKal Dragonomics)分析師潘啓思週二在一份研究簡報中寫道。

“If the stock market’s credit line is not yet maxed out, the question for investors is whether Beijing is likely to pull the plug and kill the party,” Ms. Poon wrote. She cited the surprise interest rate cut last month by the Chinese central bank as an example, saying that a monetary policy that supports growth also augurs well for equity markets.

“如果股市的信貸額度尚未達到飽和，對投資者來說，問題是北京是否有可能採取行動，制止股市瘋狂，”潘啓思寫道。她以中國央行上個月出人意料的降息爲例表示，支持增長的貨幣政策也預示着股市的好前景。

“While the authorities are undoubtedly concerned at the rapidity with which leverage has built up,” she wrote, “there is no doubt that they would welcome a sustainable bull market in stocks as positive for sentiment and for growth.”

她寫道，“雖然當局無疑會關注槓桿率積累的增長速度之快，但毫無疑問，他們會歡迎一個可持續的股票牛市，這對情緒和經濟增長有正面作用。”

While major stock markets around the world have soared to post-financial crisis highs in the last year, China’s markets had remained languid. Instead, Chinese investors, who are largely confined to domestic investments because of the country’s currency controls, had opted to park their money in the property market or alternative instruments like high-yielding wealth management products. But real estate prices have been falling across the country in recent months, and the returns on wealth management products have also declined.

儘管全球主要股市去年都漲到了金融危機後的高位，但中國的市場一直保持着無精打采的樣子。因此，由於受國家貨幣控制的限制而主要在國內投資的中國投資者，選擇了把錢投在房地產、或像高收益理財產品那樣的替代投資上。但是，全國的房地產價格近幾個月來一直在下降，理財產品的回報率也有所下降。

Retail investors in China opened 370,000 stock trading accounts last month, the highest monthly total in more than three years. And many are buying shares on credit. Since July, the amount of share purchases in Shanghai and Shenzhen that used margin financing more than doubled, rising to more than 800 billion renminbi, or $130 billion, by the end of last week.

中國的散戶投資者上個月新開了37萬個股票交易賬戶，創下三年多來的月度總高。而且許多人用信貸來購買股票。自7月以來，在上海和深圳市場用保證金購買股票的額度增長了一倍多，截至上週末，已達到8000多億元人民幣，約合1300億美元。

The result has been a sharp run-up in stock prices. In the last six months, the Shanghai index has ranked as the world’s best performing share index. Before the sell-off on Tuesday, it had risen 25 percent in the last month alone.

其結果是股票價格的大幅上揚。在過去的六個月中，上證指數已成爲全球表現最好的股票指數。在週二拋售之前，僅在過去的一個月中，就上漲了25％。

While welcoming signs of life in the country’s stock markets, Chinese officials have grown wary in recent weeks of the rising levels of debt that have fueled the rally, and they have cautioned investors against speculation.

中國官員在歡迎國內股市出現活力跡象的同時，也在最近幾周對助長股市反彈的不斷上升的債務水平表示了更多的擔憂，他們已警告投資者不要投機。

Deng Ge, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said regulators had noted a rise in market manipulation and other illegal trading activities. “We will strengthen market supervision and resolutely crack down to safeguard normal market order and protect the legal rights of investors,” Mr. Deng said in a statement on the regulator’s website on Friday.

中國證券監督管理委員會發言人鄧戈表示，監管部門已經注意到股價操縱等違法違規活動的增加。在證監會網站上週五的一份聲明中，鄧戈說，“我會將加強市場監管，堅決予以打擊，切實維護市場正常秩序，保護投資者合法權益。”

“I hope the majority of investors, especially small investors, will invest rationally, respect and revere the market, and remember that stocks have risks,” he said. “Don’t be misled or blindly follow speculators.”

他說，“希望廣大投資者特別是中小投資者理性投資，尊重市場、敬畏市場，牢記股市有風險，不要盲目跟風炒作。”