9月中國出口大幅下滑 壓低了亞洲股市

A weaker renminbi failed to stop a sharp fall in China’s exports in September, damping economists’ hopes that demand would pick up in the fourth quarter and sending markets in the region lower.

人民幣的疲軟未能阻止9月份中國出口急劇下滑，打擊了經濟學家對於需求將在第四季度出現起色的期望，壓低了亞洲股市。

In renminbi terms, exports fell an annualised 5.6 per cent, according to China’s General Administration of Customs, the first drop since February when outbound shipments contracted 20.6 per cent.

根據中國海關總署(General Administration of Customs)的數據，以人民幣計算，中國出口同比下跌5.6%，這是今年2月（該月出口同比下跌20.6%）以來首次下跌。

Imports grew only 2.2 per cent in local currency terms, down from 10.8 per cent growth in August.

而以人民幣計算的進口則只增長了2.2%，低於8月份10.8%的增幅。

The outlook was bleaker when valued in dollars, with outbound shipments falling 10 per cent year on year, sharpening from 2.8 per cent the month before and far worse than the 3.3 per cent shrinkage forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

若以美元計算，前景更加悲觀。

A drop of 1.9 per cent in imports also came in well below expectations of 0.6 per cent growth.

9月份出口同比下跌10%，比上個月2.8%的跌幅更爲劇烈，遠低於彭博(Bloomberg)所調查的經濟學家給出的收縮3.3%的預期。此外，進口1.9%的跌幅也遠低於增長0.6%的預期。

The fall in exports adds weight to our view that the People’s Bank will maintain its recent policy of gradual trade-weighted renminbi depreciation in coming quarters, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國經濟學家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示，出口下滑進一步證明了我們的看法，即中國央行將在隨後幾個季度維持其近期政策不變，緩步將人民幣貿易加權匯率貶值。

The central bank set the midpoint for the renminbi’s trade against the dollar weaker by 0.1 per cent at 6.72960 yesterday, in the fourth consecutive day of weakening.

昨日，中國央行(PBoC)把人民幣兌美元匯率中間價較前一日下調0.1%，至1美元兌6.72960元人民幣，這是連續第4天下調。

The Chinese currency has already depreciated 3.6 per cent against the dollar during the year to date to reach Rmb6.7291, the lowest since 2010, the same year the central bank abandoned its hard peg of about Rmb6.83 to the dollar.

今年迄今，人民幣相對美元已貶值3.6%，至1美元兌6.7291元人民幣，這是自2010年以來的最低水平，那年中國央行取消了人民幣對美元約1美元兌6.83元人民幣的硬性掛鉤。

ANZ analysts David Qu and Raymond Yeung described the downturn in exports as broad-based, with shipments to all large trade partners dropping.

澳新銀行(ANZ)分析師曲天石(David Qu)和楊宇霆(Raymond Yeung)稱，出口下滑的格局是全面的，中國對所有大型貿易伙伴的發貨量都在降低。

Exports to the US and EU fell 8.1 per cent and 9.8 per cent year on year, respectively.

中國對美國和歐盟(EU)出口分別同比下滑8.1%和9.8%。

The sluggish external demand will continue to weigh on the trade outlook, given downside risks stemming from the US election to the UK’s execution of the Brexit process, they said. We do not foresee exports being a growth driver of the Chinese economy over the next few quarters.

考慮到美國大選到英國執行退歐過程所帶來的下行風險，疲軟的外部需求將繼續影響貿易前景，他們表示，我們預計在接下來幾個季度，出口不會成爲中國經濟的增長驅動力。