中國社會天然氣的發展遭遇瓶頸

Rising incomes, raPid urbanisation and concerns over the toxic smog that enshrouds many of its cities are driving China away from coal and oil and towards natural gas.

不斷增長的收入、快速推進的城鎮化以及人們對籠罩多箇中國城市的有毒霧霾的擔憂，正促使中國改變對煤炭和石油的依賴，更多地使用天然氣。

Gas usage has risen almost sevenfold in 13 years to 168bn cubic metres, and China has become the largest consumer after the US and Russia.

過去的13年中，中國天然氣用量幾乎增長了6倍，達到1680億立方米，中國也成爲位居美國和俄羅斯之後的第三大天然氣消費國。

Further increases are expected. The power, industrial and transport sectors are forecast to drive demand to 315bcm by 2019, according to the International Energy Agency, the wealthy nations’ energy watchdog, and Beijing has set its sights even higher.

中國天然氣用量有望進一步增長。作爲富裕國家能源監督機構的國際能源署(IEA)預測，到2019年時，中國電力、工業和交通部門將推動中國天然氣需求量增至3150億立方米，而中國政府設立的目標則更爲高遠。

But uncertainty remains about the pace of growth into the next decade.

但是在下一個十年，中國天然氣的發展步伐還存在一些不確定的地方。

“Natural gas demand in China has potential to grow much more rapidly than it is now,” says Anne-Sophie Corbeau, senior IEA gas analyst. “However, there is still a lot standing in its way. In some ways we are less optimistic about the Chinese.”

“中國天然氣需求有潛力實現比現在快得多的增長，”國際能源署高級天然氣分析師安妮-索菲•科爾博(Anne-Sophie Corbeau)說，“然而，在其前進的路上還有很多障礙。在某些方面，我們對中國的天然氣前景不那麼看好。”

The expansion of the country’s gas sector is a massive logistical and capital investment challenge. Supply availability, delivery infrastructure, pricing levels and policy, and funding to promote gas over other fuels are all factors that dictate the speed at which the switch occurs.

中國天然氣行業的擴張將給物流和資本投資帶來巨大挑戰。供應能力、輸送基礎設施、定價標準和政策、以及推廣天然氣以取代其他燃料所需的資金，這些都是決定能源結構轉換速度的因素。

The government wants to boost gas’s share of total energy consumption from 4 per cent to about 8 per cent by the end of 2015 and 10 per cent by 2020, to reduce the plumes of black clouds resulting from heavy coal use.

中國政府希望提高天然氣在能耗總量中所佔的比重，目標是到2015年底將這一比重從現在的4%提高到8%左右，到2020年提高到10%，以減少大量燃燒煤炭造成的黑雲。

But China’s ability to construct the vast infrastructure network needed to produce, import and transport enough gas to meet demand is under scrutiny.

然而，生產、進口和輸送足夠多的天然氣以滿足中國的需求，需要龐大的基礎設施網絡，中國是否有能力建好這個網絡，正受到密切的關注。

“There is a lot of pent-up demand, particularly over the last decade, but infrastructure and the availability of supply have been a constraint,” says Michael Stoppard, gas strategist at IHS. “They really haven’t been able to develop the gas quickly enough.”

“有很多被壓抑的需求，特別是在過去10年裏，但基礎設施和供應能力一直是瓶頸，”諮詢機構IHS的天然氣策略師邁克爾•斯托帕德(Michael Stoppard)說，“他們確實未能以足夠快的速度發展天然氣。”

Pipelines have been at the top of the agenda. After a decade of negotiations, China struck a $400bn supply deal with Russia in May as part of a long-term strategy to raise gas imports via pipeline and liquefied natural gas. China is also connected to pipeline corridors in central Asia and Myanmar. But these will take years to ramp up to full potential, says Ella Chou at the Brookings Institution’s China Center.

管道建設是當務之急。在經過10年的談判後，中國在5月份與俄羅斯簽訂了一項價值4000億美元的天然氣供應合同，這是中國通過輸氣管道和液化氣方式提高天然氣進口量的長期戰略的一部分。另外，中國還連入了中亞和緬甸的管道走廊。但布魯金斯學會中國中心(Brookings Institution's China Center)的Ella Chou表示，這些舉措需要數年時間才能發揮最大潛能。

The country, which is believed to hold the world’s largest reserves of shale gas, hopes to replicate the US production boom in the form of tight gas, coal-bed methane and coal-to-gas conversion. But unlike the US shale industry, China does not have thousands of independent oil and gas entrepreneurs competing to expand production.

中國被認爲是世界上頁岩氣儲量最大的國家。它希望通過發展緻密氣、煤層氣和煤轉氣來複制美國的天然氣繁榮。但中國的頁岩油氣行業與美國不同，中國沒有成千上萬獨立的油氣企業家相互競爭來提高產量。

Everything depends on state-owned companies that lack development experience. Exploration rights, geological surveys and the adaptation of drilling and exploration technologies to suit the country have proved problematic, as has pulling together the relevant statistics.

在中國，一切都依賴國有企業，這些企業缺乏發展經驗。勘探權、地質勘測、改進鑽探和勘探技術以適應中國情況，都被證明是困難重重，將相關統計數據彙集在一起也是如此。

Beijing has halved its target for shale gas production by 2020 to 30bcm, according to Reuters, after efforts to unlock the unconventional fuel ran into difficulties.

路透社(Reuters)消息稱，嘗試開採非常規能源遇到困難後，北京方面將2020年的頁岩氣開採目標減半到300億立方米。

China became a net gas importer in 2007 and import dependency reached 32 per cent last year. Aside from questions over how quickly indigenous production can increase and whether China can contract enough imports by pipeline, there is a shortage of LNG storage facilities.

2007年中國成爲了天然氣淨進口國，去年中國對進口天然氣的依存度達到32%。國內產量能以多快的速度增長，中國是否能簽訂合同進口足夠多的管道天然氣——除了這兩個問題以外，中國還面臨着液化天然氣貯藏設施短缺的困境。

“On top of its long-term contracted gas [deals with] Turkmenistan, Myanmar, Russia, and LNG deals with the Qataris, Australians and Canadians, the ability of the Chinese to continue to grow domestic production – conventional and unconventional – quickly will dictate the needs of extra uncontracted gas that could be at a lower cost,” says Thierry Bros, senior analyst at Société Générale in Paris.

“除了與土庫曼斯坦、緬甸、俄羅斯達成的長期合約天然氣（交易）以及與卡塔爾、澳大利亞和加拿大達成的液化天然氣交易以外，中國繼續快速提高國內常規和非常規天然氣產量的能力，將決定對額外的非合約天然氣的需求，這些天然氣的價格可能更低，”法國興業銀行(Société Générale)駐巴黎的高級分析師蒂埃裏•布羅斯(Thierry Bros)說。

Ultimately demand will be determined by price, analysts say, because of the many alternatives to imported gas that are cost-competitive. The single biggest competitor is power from coal transported via transmission lines to the coastal regions.

分析師表示，最終，需求將由價格決定，因爲進口天然氣的許多替代品的價格也頗具競爭力。其中煤電是最有力的競爭者，煤電通過輸電線路傳輸至沿海地區。

Until 2006 growth in consumption was met entirely by relatively low-cost domestic gas supply. However, higher-priced imports have been added to the mix, and their cost has risen considerably with the oil price.

2006年之前，價格相對低廉的國內供應的天然氣完全可以滿足消費量的增長。但是，由於價格較高的進口天然氣也進入市場，導致天然氣價格隨油價猛漲。

“Policy makers often have to strike a balance between providing affordable gas supplies to encourage gas penetration, and setting a price that will serve as an incentive for more domestic production and higher imports,” writes Michael Chen of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in a report.

“是提供較爲廉價的天然氣供應來推廣天然氣的使用，還是將定價作爲激勵措施來促使國內提高天然氣產量並增大進口量，政策制定者不得不經常在二者中求得平衡，”牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)的Michael Chen在一份報告中寫道。

Manufacturers, which are already paying relatively high prices, want to stay competitive in the global market, while Chinese households want to keep their costs low.

那些已在支付相對較高價格的製造業企業，希望在國際市場上保持競爭力，中國的家庭則希望生活成本不要升高。

But without even higher prices, the national oil companies will continue to face significant financial losses, diminishing any incentive around exploration, production and developing unconventional reserves.

但是，如果天然氣價格無法進一步提高，中國國有石油公司將繼續面臨鉅額經濟損失，從而削弱勘探、生產以及發展非常規儲備的動力。