上證綜指連創新低表明全球經濟將遇險?

Last week we questioned just how bad China's slowdown really is, concluding that it's probably worse than the official numbers are showing. This week brings more confirmation that the Middle Kingdom is struggling.

上週我們還在問：中國的經濟減速到底有多嚴重？然後得出了真實情況很可能比官方數據糟糕這樣的結論。本週我們進一步確認，“中央王國”的日子很不好過。

China's Shanghai Composite index, one of China's two key stock barometers (the other being the Hang Seng) keeps setting fresh multi-year lows. It was up today, but is sitting around more than three-year lows.

上證綜合指數（中國兩大重要股指之一，另一個是恆生指數）連創多年新低。週二，上證綜指有所上漲，但仍徘徊在三年多來的低位。

It's been on quite a roller coaster ride, more than quadrupling between 2005 and 2007, only to crash 70% through 2008. It rebounded into 2009, but has been steadily falling since then, down about 40% since July 2009.

中國股市的起伏就像是坐過山車，2005年至2007年大漲了三倍不止，2008年暴跌70%，2009年有所反彈，但之後便穩步下跌。上證綜合指數較2009年7月已下跌了40%左右。

Meanwhile, after their own precipitous post-2007 crashes, U.S. stocks have rebounded smartly. As opposed to the Shanghai, which never got within spitting distance of its 2007 highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are both only about 10% off those former highs.

反觀美國股市，2007年後經歷了幾次暴跌，之後便大幅回升。與上證綜指從未升至2007年高位附近不同，道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)和標普500指數(S&P 500)距各自高點均只有約10%的距離。

Which index is the better barometer? Oh, is that a $64,000 question.

哪個指數是更好的晴雨表呢？這可是個很難回答的問題。

'The Shanghai Composite's drop in October 2007 was the first shot across the bow of foreign bourses accurately cautioning that a global economic meltdown was ahead, and, as such, we should pay attention to the Shanghai Composite's price action and what it might be signaling for global growth,' wrote Doug Kass, a hedge-fund manager at Seabreeze Partners.

海風資產管理公司(Seabreeze Partners)的對衝基金經理卡斯(Doug Kass)寫道：上證綜合指數2007年10月的下跌是對海外股市發出的第一個準確預警，告訴我們不久後將出現全球經濟衰退；正因如此，我們應關注上證綜指的價格波動以及它給全球增長帶來的警示。

'To this observer, the body of evidence continues to suggest a developing harder landing than the consensus expects from this important economic growth driver of the world.'

卡斯寫道：對於上證綜合指數這位觀察員來說，有證據在繼續表明，全球經濟增長重要推手中國的着陸可能比外界普遍預計的更“硬”一些。

It's showing up in the results of at least one major Chinese company, the big state-owned shipper Cosco, which is staring at its second consecutive year of losses. An ill-timed expansion for Cosco is running aground as the economic tide goes out.

這一點至少可從中國遠洋(Cosco)這個國有大型船運公司的業績上得以體現。該公司即將發佈一份鉅虧報告，而且該公司有可能迎來連續第二年的虧損。經濟退潮時，中國遠洋因不合時宜的擴張而擱淺。

Almost perversely (and we have another post on this coming), the drop is just encouraging some investors to pick up the purported bargains. Dow Jones FX Trader's Nicole Hong writes:

弔詭的是，一些投資者受上證綜合指數下跌的鼓舞，正在進行所謂的“抄底”。道瓊斯外匯新聞服務FX Trader的Nicole Hong寫道：

Instead of viewing the deterioration as a sign to get out of the battered Chinese market, the now discounted valuations are driving in more foreign investors. This month, foreign investors became net buyers of Chinese equities in consecutive weeks for the first time since February, with Chinese equity funds pulling in $98.22 million in the two weeks up to Aug. 22, according to fund tracker EPFR Global.

人們非但沒有將上證綜合指數下跌看作是逃離遭受重創的中國市場的信號，反而有更多外國投資者在逢低買入。外國投資者本月成爲自今年2月以來首個連續數週淨買入中國股票的投資者。據基金研究機構EPFR Global統計，在截至8月22日的兩週內，中國股票型基金吸引了9,822萬美元的海外資金流入。

The Shanghai's tremors in 2007, even as it was vaulting higher, were one definite red flag (no pun intended) that most people missed.

上證綜合指數2007年的震動絕對是個危險信號（儘管該指數當時還在上漲），只是大多數人都沒注意到。

Is history repeating?

歷史會重演嗎？