關注社會:中國有望成爲全球最大黃金市場

India has for decades been the world's largest gold market, but in the final quarter of 2011 demand tumbled by almost half from a year earlier as a collapse in the value of the rupee made gold more expensive for Indian buyers.

幾十年來，印度一直是全球最大的黃金市場，但去年第四季度印度黃金需求同比下降近一半，主要原因是盧比貶值，導致黃金對印度買家來說變得更爲昂貴。

"It is likely that China will emerge as the largest gold market in the world for the first time in 2012," said Marcus Grubb, managing director for investment at the WGC, a lobby group for the gold mining industry.

“2012年，中國很可能會首次成爲世界最大的黃金市場。”世界黃金協會投資部董事總經理郭博思(Marcus Grubb)表示。該協會是黃金開採行業的遊說組織。

Thursday's prediction comes after a surge in Chinese gold demand last year, with imports from Hong Kong — a proxy for overall import demand — more than tripling from 2010. In the second half of the year, as Indian demand waned, China edged ahead as the world's top consumer, according to data from GFMS, the consultancy, that were published by the WGC on Thursday.

去年中國內地的黃金需求大幅增長，從香港進口的黃金數量（總體進口需求的晴雨表）比2010年增長兩倍以上。根據諮詢機構——黃金礦業服務有限公司(GFMS)的數據，去年下半年，隨着印度黃金需求減弱，中國一躍成爲全球最大的黃金消費國。這些數據由世界黃金協會在週四發佈。

China has become an increasingly important driver of the gold price, with large purchases propping up prices late last year as western investors were selling.

中國已成爲左右金價的一大因素，重要性日益上升。去年底，在西方投資者紛紛減持之際，來自中國的大量買盤對金價形成了支撐。

On Wednesday night, gold was trading at $1,726 a troy ounce, up 13.5 per cent from a late December low but still 10 per cent below the nominal record high of $1,920 set in September. Paulson and Co, one of the largest hedge fund investors in gold, revealed in a regulatory filing this week that it had sold 45 per cent of its holdings of gold exchange-traded funds in the second half of the year.

週三晚，金價報每盎司1726美元，較去年12月底的低位高出13.5%，但仍比去年9月創下的名義歷史新高每盎司1920美元低10%。對衝基金中最大的黃金投資者之一保爾森公司(Paulson and Co)在本週提交監管部門的材料中披露，該公司去年下半年減持了45%的黃金ETF（交易所交易基金）。

Mr Grubb predicted that Chinese consumption would rise this year at pace similar to the 20 per cent increase in 2011. That implies jewellery and investment demand of about 925 tonnes in 2012. On the other hand, he said Indian demand could fall from its level of 933 tonnes in 2011.

郭博思預計，今年中國黃金消費量的增幅將與去年相當。去年增幅爲20%。以此計算，2012年中國金飾和黃金投資需求將達925噸左右。另一方面，他表示，今年印度黃金需求可能低於2011年933噸的水平。

"The dynamic in those two economies is radically different," he said. "There might be more challenges to the Indian market [than the Chinese market] in the next 12 months."

郭博思表示：“這兩個經濟體的動態截然不同。在未來12個月內，印度市場面臨的挑戰可能（比中國市場）更多。”

Indian economic growth has slowed, with the government recently cutting its forecast for growth in this fiscal year ending in March to 7 per cent, having steadily pared back previous projections of nearly 9 per cent.

印度經濟增長已經放緩，政府最近調低了對截至3月份的這一財年的經濟增長預測，經過幾番下調，這一預測數字已從最早的近9%下調爲7%。

"You've effectively seen foreign direct investment dry up in India," Mr Grubb said. "That feeds down into the economy with slowing growth and less liquidity available. That really impacts the rupee, and gold looks horribly expensive to local consumers."

郭博思表示：“你可以看到，印度外來直接投資已幾近枯竭，這對經濟產生了影響，導致增長放緩、流動性減少。這實際上對盧比匯率造成了衝擊，在本地消費者眼裏，現在黃金看起來非常貴。”

In China, on the other hand, Mr Grubb predicted further strength as both growth and inflation remain relatively high, driving local consumers to invest in bullion to protect their wealth. Savers have poured their money into gold because of the lack of alternative investment options in China, were bank deposits carry negative real interest rates and property prices have been sliding.

另一方面，郭博思預計中國黃金需求將進一步走強，因爲國內經濟增長仍然較爲強勁，通脹水平仍然較高，這會促使中國消費者投資黃金，以達到財富保值的目的。在中國，由於銀行存款實際利率爲負、房價持續下滑，而此外又沒有多少投資途徑，所以儲戶們紛紛把資金投在黃金上。

Chinese gold consumption has already risen by 140 per cent between 2007 and 2011, as growing wealth and the liberalisation of the domestic gold market drive a surge in consumption. Beijing has encouraged gold consumption, announcing in August 2010 measures to promote and regulate the local gold market, including expanding the number of banks allowed to import bullion.

從2007年到2011年期間，中國黃金消費量增長了140%，財富的增長和國內黃金市場的放開帶動了黃金消費的增長。中國政府鼓勵黃金消費，於2010年8月出臺了一些促進和監管本地黃金市場發展的措施，包括允許更多銀行從事黃金進口業務。

Elsewhere last year, demand for gold in Europe surged as investors fretted about the worsening eurozone debt crisis. European investment in coins and bars rose 26 per cent to 375 tonnes, the WGC said, making the region the largest market for physical gold investment products.

在其他地區中，歐洲黃金需求大幅上升，原因是投資者對持續惡化的歐債危機感到不安。世界黃金協會表示，去年歐洲在金幣和金條上的投資增長了26%，達375噸，使該地區成爲實物黃金投資產品的最大市場。

Additional reporting by Leslie Hook in Beijing

何麗(Leslie Hook)北京補充報道

譯者:何黎