中國成爲全球最大石油淨進口國

China has overtaken the US to become the world’s largest net oil importer, according to US estimates, as its steady increase in imports crosses over with the steep decline in America.

根據美國的估測，中國已超越美國成爲世界上最大的石油淨進口國。中國石油進口穩步增長的同時，美國石油進口正急劇下降。

The US government’s Energy Information Administration said yesterday that in September the gap between oil consumption and domestic production averaged 6.24m barrels per day in the US, and 6.3m b/d in China.

美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)昨天表示，9月份，美國日均石油消費量比國內日均石油產量多出624萬桶，中國的這一數據則是630萬桶。

Estimates from analysts vary, but the EIA said the trend was expected to continue next year.

分析師的估計數字各不相同，但美國能源情報署認爲，這一趨勢明年將持續下去。

David Goldwyn, a former US State Department official who is an energy consultant, said: “We’ve had a radical change in supply and demand in the US, [and] that change is long-term.”

前美國國務院(US State Department)官員、能源諮詢師戴維•戈爾德溫(David Goldwyn)說：“美國石油供需情況發生了徹底改變，這一改變是長期性的。”

The US had been the largest importer since moving ahead of Japan in the 1970s, as a result of a decline in production.

自上世紀七十年代在石油進口量方面超越日本以來，美國一直是世界最大的石油進口國，原因之一是其國內產量呈現下滑。

In the past five years, however, the situation has gone into reverse, thanks to advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, which have unlocked reserves in shale rock.

但在過去五年裏，得益於水力壓裂和水平鑽井技術的進步，頁岩中儲備的油氣被釋放出來，上述局面發生了逆轉。

Booming production from shales such as the Eagle Ford of Texas and the Bakken of North Dakota has raised US output of liquid fuels more than 40 per cent since 2008 to about 12.2m b/d. The EIA expects that to reach 13.2m b/d next year.

2008年以來，德克薩斯州鷹灘(Eagle Ford)和北達科他州巴肯(Bakken)等頁岩項目產量的迅猛增長，推動美國液態燃料產量增長逾40%，達到每日約1220萬桶。美國能源情報署預計，明年產量將達到每日1320萬桶。

US oil demand, meanwhile, has dropped about 4 per cent in five years, to about 18.7m b/d, as a result of improved fuel economy and decreased car use.

另一方面，由於燃油經濟性的改善和汽車使用的減少，五年來美國的石油需求量大約下降了4%，至每日1870萬桶。

During the same period oil demand in China has risen more than 40 per cent, to about 10.7m b/d. China’s oil production has also risen, but only about 10 per cent, to 4.46m b/d.

而同一時期，中國石油需求量則增長到每日1070萬桶左右，增幅超過40%。中國的石油產量也有所增長，但只增長了10%左右，至每日446萬桶。

Philip Verleger, energy analyst, forecast that US production would keep rising as the shale boom continued, while demand would fall further as a result of new fuel economy standards and a shift from diesel to natural gas for trucks.

能源分析師菲利普•費勒格(Philip Verleger)預計，由於頁岩繁榮的持續，美國的產量將繼續增長；另外，由於新的燃油經濟性標準以及卡車從燒柴油改爲燒天然氣，美國的石油需求會進一步下降。

Reductions in US oil consumption would persist even if the price fell, he said. “We are past the point where demand is recoverable.”

他認爲，即使油價下跌，美國石油消費量減少的趨勢也會持續下去。“我們已經過了需求可以回升的時點。”