印巴貿易正常化 推動南亞經濟整合

Efforts by South Asian rivals India and Pakistan to normalize trade ties have received further momentum, with Pakistan agreeing to open most commerce with India. The thaw in India-Pakistan trade ties is expected to bolster economic integration of the South Asian region.

南亞宿仇印度和巴基斯坦推動貿易正常化的努力取得了進展，巴基斯坦同意最大限度地對印度開放商業往來。印巴貿易關係解凍預期會幫助南亞地區的經濟整合。

At a meeting in New Delhi this week, Pakistan pledged to open its market to 7,000 goods from India over the next three months - up from the fewer than 2,000 items allowed at present. Top commerce officials from both countries also decided to open more trading posts and ease visa rules that restrict travel.

巴基斯坦這星期在新德里的一場會議上承諾，將在未來3個月開放市場給7千項印度產品。目前巴基斯坦只允許不到2千項印度產品進口。兩國的首席商業官員還決定設立更多的貿易站，並放松管制旅行的簽證規則。

The steps follow Pakistan’s decision last month to grant “most favored nation” status to India. That means the two countries are on track to trade on equal terms by removing tariffs that restricted commerce for decades.

在兩國採取這些步驟之前，巴基斯坦纔在上個月決定給予印度“最惠國貿易待遇”。兩國解除了限制幾十年來商業活動的關稅，這代表兩國正朝向平等貿易發展。

Trade analyst Nita Taneja at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations warns that favorable trade accords alone are insufficient to boost commerce. She says infrastructure improvements are needed to overcome the two countries’ limited transportation links.

印度國際經濟關係研究院的貿易分析人士塔尼加警告，光有最惠國貿易協定對擴大商業是不夠的。她說，必須改善基礎建設來克服兩國有限的交通連接。

“Look at rail movement. You don’t get wagons to transport goods across the border. There could be a wait of 45 days," Taneja said. "For instance, a lot of iron ore is getting exported from India from the eastern side and that is all going via Colombo, and then to Karachi and then coming back to Lahore.”

塔尼加說：“看看鐵路。你沒有貨車將貨物運過邊界。這可能得等上45天。例如，印度出口很多東部出產的鐵礦到巴基斯坦，所有都得先經過科倫坡，然後到卡拉奇，然後再到拉合爾。”

Some steps are being taken. A new freight handling facility will be opened in the coming months at Wagah - the main land crossing between the two countries.

兩國在這方面已採取了一些步驟。下個月將在瓦格赫啓用一個新的貨運轉運站，瓦格赫位於兩國陸路交通要道上。

The business potential between India and Pakistan is underscored by the flourishing illegal trade that goes via the Middle East and is estimated at $3 billion - higher than the official bilateral trade of about $2.5 billion.

印度和巴基斯坦的商業潛力無窮， 經由中東進行的雙邊非法貿易估計高達達30億美元，比兩國官方25億雙邊貿易值還要高。Economists say the benefits of normalizing trade ties between the two rivals will also help boost trade in all of South Asia - one of the world’s least economically integrated regions. Regional trade is $5 billion or just five percent of South Asia's total trade.

經濟學家說，兩個敵國貿易關係正常化的好處也將有助於刺激南亞地區內所有的貿易活動。南亞是世界上經濟整合程度最低的地區之一。印巴區域貿易值爲50億美元，只佔南亞全部貿易的5%。

The head of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Rajiv Kumar, says the potential to increase regional trade is huge.

印度聯合商工會主席庫馬爾說，區域貿易增加的潛力十分龐大。

“One of the major impediments in the greater trade relations within the region was [the] India-Pakistan standoff," Kumar said. "Now that is beginning to get resolved, I think you will see a burst of trading activity and commercial activity all across the region.”

庫馬爾說：“在這個區域發展更緊密的貿易關係最大的障礙之一就是印巴對立。既然現在的障礙開始消除了，相信你將會看到整個地區的貿易和商業活動的迅猛增加。”

At a regional conference last week, India made another push to engage in commerce with its neighbors. Kumar says this is important because India accounts for a large part of the region’s economy.

上星期在一個地區性會議，印度再度推動和它的鄰國巴基斯坦加強商業往來。庫馬爾說，這很重要因爲印度在地區經濟佔有很重的份量。

“India has also taken an amazing step by announcing that all imports from less developed neighbors - Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh - will have zero tariff duty treatment," Kumar said. "That measure also will allow greater access to the Indian market…. India is the 1,000 pound gorilla in the room.”

庫馬爾說：“印度還踏出了很棒的一步，它宣佈所有來自尼泊爾、不丹和孟加拉這些較不發達鄰國的進口，都將享有零關稅待遇。這項舉措也允許他們獲取印度市場更大的份額。印度現在已經大到讓人無法忽視。”

The World Bank estimates that trade within South Asia could rise to $20 billion if restrictions are removed. Indian leaders say boosting trade ties will also make the region more politically stable.

世界銀行估計，如果各項限制獲得解除，南亞的貿易活動可能增加到200億。印度領導人說，加強貿易關係也將使區域政治更加穩定。