調查結果預示歐亞經濟正在復甦

The euro zone's economic recovery weakened slightly in May, but is still on course for its best quarter in three years, according to a survey released Thursday.

上週四公佈的調查結果顯示，5月份，歐元區經濟復甦力度稍有減弱，但仍有望出現三年來表現最好的一個季度。

Research firm Markit said its Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro zone fell marginally to 53.9 in May from a three-year high of 54.0, indicating that the region is growing at an annualized pace of between 1.5%-2.0%, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. A number above 50 denotes expansion.

研究機構Markit公佈，5月份，該機構的歐元區採購經理人指數（PMI）從54.0的三年高點微跌至53.9。美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）分析師估算，這個數字對應的歐元區經濟年化增長率爲1.5%-2.0%。PMI超過50表明經濟處於擴張狀態。

The euro zone exited recession last year, but the recovery has struggled to build any momentum, with unemployment still near record highs in some countries, and banks still more concerned with strengthening their balance sheets rather than extending new loans to businesses and consumers.

去年歐元區經濟擺脫了衰退陰霾，但復甦一直乏力；部分成員國的失業率仍然接近歷史最高水平；各家銀行更關心的也依然是如何改善自己的資產負債情況，而不是向企業和消費者發放新的貸款。

Markit's surveys track responses from some 5,000 companies around the euro zone, and are seen as a good indicator of current economic conditions. If confirmed by 'hard' data on output and sales, the latest PMIs would represent an improvement from a sluggish first quarter, but they still continue to hide a number of important weak spots: for example, the composite index for France, the region's second-largest economy, slipped back below 50, indicating that activity actually fell during the month. In addition, the manufacturing component of the regional index fell to a six-month low of 52.5, suggesting that the strength of the euro is causing problems for at least some of the region's exporters. That may increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to ease policy when its governing council meets next week. BAML analysts expect the ECB to cut its key refinancing rate to 0.10% from 0.25%. Even if the region isn't currently experiencing outright deflation, inflation is so close to zero that pressure has been building on the ECB to do something for months.

Markit調查了歐元區約5000家公司，外界認爲它的PMI能很好地體現當前經濟形勢。如果得到產出和銷售等硬數據的證實，5月份PMI就表示第一季度增長遲緩的歐元區經濟現在已經有了改善。但這項數據中仍隱藏着許多嚴重不足之處。舉例來說，歐元區第二大經濟體、法國的綜合指標（composite index）回落到了50以下，表明法國5月份的經濟活動實際上出現了下降。此外，歐元區製造業指標（manufacturing component）跌到了52.5，是六個月以來的最低點，表明歐元升值已經帶來了問題，至少對歐元區部分出口商來說是這樣。歐洲央行（European Central Bank）在下週的理事會會議上可能會因此而面臨更大的壓力，要求它放鬆政策。美銀美林分析師預計，歐央行將把主要再融資利率（refinancing rate）從0.25%下調至0.10%。就算目前沒有出現通縮，歐元區的通脹率也已經非常接近於零，導致歐央行在過去幾個月中一直面臨着採取措施的壓力。

There was more clearly positive news from the UK, where the Confederation of British Industry's latest survey found a big majority of companies reporting higher output in there three months to May, and another big majority expecting output to rise further in the coming quarter. Whereas the ECB is still more likely to loosen its monetary policy, the Bank of England appears to be edging closer to first measures to tighten it. Markets expect the BoE to raise its key interest rate as early as the first quarter of next year.

英國傳來了更爲明顯的有利消息。英國產業聯合會（Confederation of British Industry）的最新調查顯示，大多數公司表示3-5月份產出上升，預計隨後三個月產出將進一步增長的公司也佔大多數。雖然歐央行依然更有可能放鬆貨幣政策，但看來英國央行（Bank of England）正在緩慢地朝着首次收緊政策邁進。市場預計，英國央行最快將在明年第一季度提高基準利率。

Elsewhere, it's been a good day for data in Asia too, with HSBC's estimate of manufacturing conditions in China hitting its highest level in five months and a similar survey in Japan suggesting that industry has digested a big increase in the domestic sales tax, an event that many saw as one of the biggest risks to the radical plans of Prime Minister Abe to get the economy going again. The Nikkei index of Japanese stocks ended up 2.1% on the day, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.5%.

此外，上週四公佈的亞洲經濟數據都表現良好。匯豐銀行（HSBC）估算，中國製造業達到了五個月以來的最佳狀態。日本的類似調查表明，工業企業已經消化了國內銷售稅大幅上調的影響——就日本首相安倍晉三再次啓動經濟的重大計劃而言，許多人都認爲提高銷售稅是最大的風險因素之一。日經（Nikkei）指數上週四收盤時上漲2.1%，香港恆生指數也上揚了0.5%。