安邦崛起與監管缺位

Edmond Halley, of comet fame, also created an early actuarial table of life expectancy, allowing policy sellers to estimate their risks. Partly as a result, insurance in the west is a staid, conservative business. In China, it is rather racier. One insurer, Anbang, has amassed so much caPital so quickly that the government has intervened, detaining its chairman Wu Xiaohui. A strong, independent insurance regulator would have become involved much earlier.

因哈雷彗星而聞名的埃德蒙?哈雷(Edmond Halley)，也製作了一張早期的生命表，使保險公司得以評估自己的風險。部分出於這個原因，保險在西方是一門古板、保守的生意。在中國，保險業則相當活潑。險企安邦(Anbang)如此迅速地積累了如此多的資本，導致中國政府實施干預，帶走了安邦董事長吳小暉。如果有一家強大、獨立的保險監管機構，那麼它本會早得多出手干預的。

Insurance is big business in China. Premiums there jumped to Rmb3.1tn ($456bn) last year, up 82 per cent in just three years. It should soon surpass Japan’s more established industry as number two worldwide. That surge is not just down to low penetration of insurance products in China. Short-term, high-yielding investment products can masquerade as insurance. Using these, aggressive unlisted insurers such as Anbang and Foresea Life have amassed capital very quickly.

保險在中國是一門大生意。去年，保費收入猛增至3.1萬億元人民幣（合4560億美元），在僅僅3年內增長82%。中國保險業應會很快超過更老牌的日本保險業，成爲全球第二。這一跳躍並不僅僅歸功於保險產品在中國的普及率低。期限短、收益高的投資產品可以僞裝成保險。利用這些產品，安邦和前海人壽(Foresea Life)等咄咄逼人的非上市險企，迅速積累了資本。

Both Anbang and Foresea have funded acquisitions via their insurance businesses for years. Rumours abound of the political connections their chairmen have. True, all insurers need to deploy the capital they accumulate. But Anbang has spent over $10bn in a couple of years on such assets as the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York. The fact that Anbang may well have mismatched its short-term liabilities with long-term, illiquid asset purchases should have been a concern earlier.

多年來，安邦和前海都一直通過保險業務爲其併購提供資金。有關這兩家公司的董事長擁有政治人脈的傳言甚囂塵上。誠然，所有保險公司都需要將積累的資金花出去。但幾年內，安邦在收購紐約華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria hotel)這類資產上花掉了逾100億美元。安邦的短期負債與其長期、低流動性資產收購很有可能出現錯配，這一事實本該更早引發擔憂。

Although the chairman of Foresea’s parent company, Yao Zhenhua, was recently banned for a decade, regulatory oversight has generally been lacking. Xiang Junbo, chairman of insurance regulator CIRC, is himself under investigation for “severe disciplinary violations”.

儘管在不久前，前海人壽母公司的董事長姚振華被罰禁入保險業10年，但總體而言監管監督一直是缺位的。中國保監會(CIRC)主席項俊波本人涉嫌“嚴重違紀”，正在接受審查。

Another key issue is whether some insurers offer protection at all or simply wealth management products. Some tout very high yields of up to 8 per cent on insurance policies, worries broker CLSA, almost double those on government bonds. Listed insurers, such as Ping An and China Life, too, have these types of product. But at least their diversified shareholder base and regularly published accounts allow more scrutiny.

另一個關鍵問題是，有些險企到底是提供保障，還是僅僅提供理財產品。有些險企兜售保單的理財收益非常高，高至8%，幾乎爲政府債券收益率的2倍，這讓里昂證券(CLSA)感到擔憂。平安(Ping An)和中國人壽(China Life)等上市險企也有這一類型的產品。但起碼，它們多元化的股東結構和定期公佈的賬目，便於外界對其進行更多審視。

Unlike Halley’s comet, financial scandals come around with increasing rapidity. China should forestall problems with stronger independent oversight. More foreign investors might then be emboldened to invest in a sector whose fundamental prospects are good.

跟哈雷彗星不同，金融醜聞出現的頻率越來越快。中國應當通過更強大的獨立監督，預防問題的發生。那麼，更多外國投資者也許就敢於投資基本前景不錯的中國保險業了。

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