日本股市將決定安倍經濟學命運
When the Tokyo Stock Exchange reopened on Wednesday for the first trading session of 2017, Japan as a whole entered its fifth year of “Abenomics” — the economic revival programme that, depending on taste, has either sputtered predictably or provided investable vigour to an otherwise enfeebled Japan story.
上週三，東京證券交易所(Tokyo Stock Exchange)重新開盤，迎來2017年第一個交易日。這是日本經濟邁入“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)的第五年，這一經濟復甦計劃效果如何？人們見仁見智，要麼覺得它不出預料地失敗了，要麼覺得它爲日本股市注入了活力，使原本不景氣的日本股市有了投資價值。Whether, by the end of this year, Abenomics remains a relevant force — or even a word people still bother to use — may depend heavily upon the performance of the Nikkei 225 Average over the next six weeks.
到今年年底安倍經濟學是否仍會是一支重要力量，甚至是否仍會是值得提及的一個詞語，可能很大程度取決於日經225平均股價指數（Nikkei 225 Average，以下簡稱日經指數）在未來六週的表現。Survive those without the same huge dip that savaged the benchmark between the first trading session of January and mid-February last year, say analysts, and we may be looking at a market with enough foreign buying and other support to sustain the current bull run.
分析師表示，如果日本股市安然度過未來六週，沒有出現像去年1月首個交易日到2月中旬之間那樣的大幅下滑（其間日經指數遭受重創），那麼日本股市可能會獲得充足的外國買家以及其他支持力量來維持當前的牛市。
If Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is particularly lucky and all this whets domestic retail investor appetites, 2017 may even see him complete a three-year Abenomics hat-trick of massive state asset sales — either through a second tranche of Japan Post and its banking and insurance subsidiaries or, if the stars really align, the long speculated privatisation of the Tokyo Metro.
如果日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)特別幸運，而且上述一切都成功激發國內零售投資者的胃口，他甚至可能在2017年完成一個歷時三年、大規模出售國有資產的安倍經濟學帽子戲法——或者是再賣掉一部分日本郵政(Japan Post)及其銀行和保險分支，或者是奇蹟出現，達成人們長期猜測的東京地下鐵(Tokyo Metro)私有化。Many of the signals for equities are hopeful. In addition to the heavily oversubscribed $4bn privatisation of Kyushu Railway Company, Japan’s 2016 initial public offerings market generated consistent enthusiasm for new issues, with some stocks rising 200 per cent on their first day of trading.
許多信號都令人對日本股市抱有希望。除了九州旅客鐵道(Kyushu Railway Company)40億美元的私有化獲得高倍數超額認購以外，日本2016年的首次公開發行(IPO)市場對新發行股票抱以持續熱情，一些股票在上市首個交易日上漲了200%。Japanese companies have just completed a record ￥6tn year of share buybacks and Goldman Sachs expects they will beat that in 2017, forecasting ￥7.8tn of purchases.
日本企業2016年股票回購創下6萬億日元的紀錄，高盛(Goldman Sachs)預計這一紀錄在2017年將被打破——該行預測2017年日本企業股票回購額將達7.8萬億日元。
Through its ￥6tn programme buying exchange traded funds (ETFs), the Bank of Japan is on course to remain a significant supporter of equity prices. At ￥117.6 against the US dollar, the yen is substantially weaker than where it was for most of 2016, promising solid earnings-per-share rises if that remains the case in the year ahead.
通過6萬億日元的交易所交易基金(ETF)購買計劃，日本央行(Bank of Japan)預計仍將成爲日本股市的重要支持者。日元兌美元匯率維持在117.6日元兌1美元，日元比2016年大部分時間都要疲軟得多，如果未來一年仍然如此，每股盈利(EPS)將穩步上升。Plenty of strategists accordingly have 12-month targets for the Nikkei (and the broader, more transparent Topix index) that are between 2 and 7 per cent higher than its December 30 close of 19,114. They see plenty of potential risks in Donald Trump’s US presidency and in China’s growth profile, but cling to what SMBC Nikko strategist Jonathan Allum describes as “the simple truth” that Japanese stocks are more cyclical than most and tend to outperform when the global economy is improving.
許多策略師因此預測，到今年年底時，日經指數將比去年12月30日19114點的收盤點高出2%到7%（更全面、更透明的東證股價指數(Topix)也同樣如此）。他們認爲唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統以及中國增長情況都潛存諸多風險，但正如SMBC日興資本市場(SMBC Nikko Capital Markets)策略師喬納森?阿勒姆(Jonathan Allum)所說，他們堅信一個“簡單的事實”，即日本股市比大多數股市更具週期性，而且在全球經濟向好時往往表現出衆。Even if 2016 saw only a very narrow (0.42 per cent) rise for the Nikkei index, recent market history is on the prime minister’s side. Since Mr Abe took office in late December 2012, investors have repeatedly given him and Abenomics the benefit of the doubt.
雖然2016年日經指數僅窄幅上漲0.42%，但近期股市表現對安倍有利。自安倍於2012年12月下旬就任以來，投資者一再選擇相信他和他的安倍經濟學。He has certainly enjoyed the tailwind of prolonged yen weakness (and its traditional boost to corporate profitability) but even as doubts swirl over whether he will deliver much more in the way of serious structural reform, wage increases or real progress on “womenomics”, the Nikkei Average has risen in each of the years he has been in power.
安倍肯定喜歡日元長期疲軟（以及它對企業盈利能力一如既往的提振）這股順風，但即使外界一直懷疑他能否推動切實的結構性改革、工資增長或在“女性經濟學”方面取得真正進展，日經指數在他上臺以來依然年年上漲。Increasingly, however, the strong stock market is exposing a persistent failure of Abenomics. A buoyant Nikkei — the most followed share barometer by Japanese investors — does not, on its own, constitute a success for the prime minister’s programme and 2017 could be the year that Mr Abe’s benefit of the doubt runs out.
然而，強勁的股市越來越暴露出安倍經濟學的一個持久不足。日經指數——日本投資者最關注的股市晴雨表——上漲本身，並不構成安倍計劃的成功，2017年可能就是人們不再選擇相信這位日本首相的一年。While positive returns for the market may create a superficial sense of progress, the purpose of the BoJ’s ETF-buying programme, of the corporate governance code and various other efforts broadly ascribed to Abenomics, is far wider.
雖然市場的積極回報可能在表面上讓人覺得情況有所進展，但日本央行的ETF購買計劃、《公司治理準則》的出臺以及大致歸屬於安倍經濟學的種種其他努力的目的，要廣泛得多。The idea was to use the equity market, among other mechanisms, to create a cycle in which companies feel stronger, wages rise and Japan breaks cleanly free of its 20-year deflationary mindset. Along the way, runs the core underlying Abenomics ambition, Japanese households and particularly the younger ones should be tempted to shift some of their ￥1,700tn savings out of bank accounts and into riskier assets.
最初的設想是，利用股市（以及其他機制）創造一個讓企業感覺更強大、讓薪資上漲、讓日本徹底打破其20年通縮思維的週期。安倍經濟學的核心根本抱負是，在這個過程中，日本家庭（尤其是較爲年輕的家庭）應該會忍不住將部分儲蓄轉出銀行，投入風險更高的資產——日本家庭總儲蓄已達1700萬億日元。None of this, though, has yet happened convincingly. Even the massive IPOs of Japan Post in 2015 and JR Kyushu in 2016 — successfully priced to entice the individual investor in consecutive years — did not create the desired equity culture.
然而，所有這些設想還沒有一條可以令人信服地宣稱已經實現。甚至2015年日本郵政和2016年九州旅客鐵道這樣龐大的IPO——它們的定價成功地在隨後幾年吸引了散戶投資者——也沒有創造出理想的股市氛圍。In 2014, Japan introduced the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) — a tax-sheltered vehicle that allows savers to park ￥1.2m annually in stocks and mutual funds. Some 10m people have opened accounts since the launch but more than half are aged over 60 and across the whole scheme, the average total in each account remains below ￥900,000.
在2014年，日本推出了“小額投資免稅制度”(NISA)，這是一種避稅工具，賬戶持有人每年最多可以投資120萬日元的股票和共同基金而不用繳稅。自該項目推出以來，約1000萬人開了戶，但逾半數是60歲以上的老年人，而且在整個項目中，每個賬戶的平均金額依然低於90萬日元。The next few days, say brokers, could harden the case for caution. Toshiba ended the year with its shares in virtual freefall, down nearly 43 per cent in just three days as investors responded to a vaguely worded warning of “several billion dollars” worth of unexpected impairment costs on its nuclear business — and media reports suggest there may be other accounting problems lurking. If a name as seemingly bulletproof as Toshiba can suddenly crash, runs the logic of the conservative Japanese household, what hope of a safe investment in anything? If there is any sort of share sell-off contagion, to Toshiba’s main lending banks or through its supply chain, the damage to sentiment could leave many NISA accounts untouched for months.
券商表示，接下來的幾天可能會讓人們更有理由保持謹慎。東芝(Toshiba)股價在2016年結束之際近乎自由落體式下跌，在僅僅3天內就下跌了近43%，投資者對其措辭含糊的核能業務出現“數十億美元”意外減值損失的警告感到不安，而媒體報道表明，該公司可能還有其他潛藏的會計問題。如果一個像東芝這樣似乎十足穩妥的公司可以突然暴跌，還能指望投資什麼是安全的？保守的日本家庭就是這麼認爲的。如果這股拋售潮出現任何蔓延（波及東芝的主要放貸行或者傳導至該公司的供應鏈），對投資者情緒的破壞就可能讓許多NISA賬戶數月沒有交易。Another part of the problem is technical: retail investors testing individual stock ownership for the first time are naturally drawn to household names. Unfortunately, many of these — including Nintendo, Fanuc, Shimano, Fast Retailing and Mitsubishi Estate — have shares whose minimum trading units are too big to fit into a NISA account’s annual allotment. One early effort in 2017, say government officials, may be to encourage these companies to undertake share splits to make them investable by NISA holders.
另一個問題是技術上的：首次嘗試自己炒股的散戶投資者自然會被家喻戶曉的公司所吸引。遺憾的是，許多這樣的公司——包括任天堂(Nintendo)、發那科(Fanuc)、禧瑪諾(Shimano)、迅銷(Fast Retailing)和三菱地所(Mitsubishi Estate)——股票的最小交易單位過大，超過NISA賬戶的年度配額。政府官員表示，2017年較早拿出的一項舉措可能是鼓勵這些公司分拆股票，讓它們適合NISA賬戶持有人投資。But the pivotal test of this central Abenomics theme, says Koji Nagai, the chief executive of Nomura Securities, will be inflation. “If people think deflation will continue, they will probably leave their assets as bank deposits and if they think otherwise, they will invest in something. If Japan’s CPI really hits 2 per cent and inflation kicks in, as [BOJ governor Haruhiko] Kuroda has been saying, people will naturally withdraw money from their bank deposits and move to investment.
但野村證券(Nomura Securities)社長永井浩二(Koji Nagai)表示，對安倍經濟學這一中心主題的關鍵考驗將是通脹。“如果人們認爲通縮將會持續，他們很可能會繼續把錢放在銀行，如果他們不這麼認爲，他們將會進行投資。如果像日本央行行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)一直說的那樣，日本消費價格指數(CPI)真的觸及2%，通脹來臨，人們自然會從銀行賬戶取出錢，進行投資。”Japanese investors are clever and have been very logical in the past and probably will be clever going forward,” says Mr Nagai.
永井浩二說：“日本投資者非常聰明，過去一直非常理性，未來很可能也會非常聰明。”
