中國遊客撐起安倍經濟學大綱
For those who spend a lot of their timebetween the jewellery boutiques and the haute couture stores of Tokyo’s Ginzadistrict, a new joke suggests an easy way to tell local Japanese from theChinese tourists.
一個新的笑話表明，有一個簡便方法可以分辨出在那些流連於東京銀座珠寶專賣店和高級時裝店的人當中，哪些是日本本地人，哪些是中國遊客。
Both types will rendezvous with theirfriends and family under the imposing portico of Mitsukoshi —Ginza’s mostfamous department store and meeting spot.
無論是日本本地人還是中國遊客都會在三越(Mitsukoshi)——銀座最著名的百貨商店和碰頭地點——雄偉的門廊下與家人和朋友會面。
The Chinese, by recent tradition, will rushinside and buy a Bottega Veneta handbag for ￥300,000 ($2,900).
按照近年的傳統，中國人將會衝到裏面，買下30萬日元（合2900美元）的寶緹嘉(Bottega Veneta)手袋，而日本人將會衝到馬路對面的Doutor平價咖啡店，買上一杯300日元的拿鐵咖啡。
The Japanese will rush across the road toDoutor, a thrifty coffee shop, and buy a latte for ￥300.
It is gallows humour that reveals aJapanese luxury goods industry in outward health, but also in a state offundamental transformation.
正是這種黑色幽默揭示出日本奢侈品行業表面仍然健康，但也在發生根本轉變。
On paper, things could not be better.
表面看起來，情況好得不得了。
Between 2010 and 2015, according to datafrom Euromonitor International, the value (in 2015 dollar terms) of theJapanese luxury goods market jumped by almost 25 per cent from $20.9bn to$26.1bn.
歐睿諮詢(Euromonitor International)的數據顯示，從2010年到2015年，日本奢侈品市場價值（按2015年美元價值計算）飆升近25%，從209億美元增至261億美元。
The growth was not quite as steep as the 52per cent growth in China over the same period, but for a developed market, itwas striking.
這種增幅不像中國市場同期52%的增長那麼陡峭，但對一個發達市場是驚人的。
Beneath those figures, however, Japanesetastes in luxury, from jewellery and watches to handbags and headscarves, havebeen shifting towards value for money and low ostentation.
然而，在那些數據的背後，日本人不再青睞珠寶、名錶、手袋和頭巾等奢侈品，他們的興趣正轉向物有所值和低調。
Much of that is natural in an ageingpopulation whose tastes have matured, and much of it is the effect of ageneration of Japanese now in their 30s having grown up with 20 years of on-offdeflation.
隨着人口日益老齡化，隨着三十多歲的日本消費者經歷了20年斷斷續續的通縮，消費觀念轉向成熟理性也是自然的。
Chinese tourists, meanwhile, are not justarriving in Japan in record numbers, but on a scale that has smashed thegovernment’s most bullish predictions: up 38 per cent to 3.8m in the year toJuly, according to the Japan National Tourism Organisation.
與此同時，去日本旅遊的中國遊客人數不僅創出歷史最高紀錄，而且增速也超出了政府最樂觀的預測：日本國家旅遊局(Japan National Tourist Organisation)的數據顯示，在截止今年7月的一年時間裏，中國遊客增長38%，至380萬人。
Jin Weijun, a tourist from Dalian innorth-east China, conforms to the stereotype of the Ginza Chinese tourist: heand his girlfriend have spent the past hour at Mitsukoshi comparing four piecesof Van Cleef & Arpels jewellery, all of them costing more than ￥1m each.
一名來自中國大連的遊客金偉君（音譯）和來銀座旅遊的其他中國人一樣：他和女朋友在三越花了一個小時比對梵克雅寶(Van Cleef & Arpels)的四款珠寶，所有這些珠寶的單價都超過了100萬日元。
When all your friends know you are going toTokyo, you have to come back with something that shows you spent money there,says Mr Jin, a website designer.
這名網站設計員表示：當你的朋友們都知道你要去東京的時候，你不得不帶回一些東西表明你在那裏花了錢。
That surge of arrivals and spending hasbeen a consistent support for the last three and a half years of Prime MinisterShinzo Abe’s economic revival programme.
中國遊客人數和支出飆升在過去3年半爲日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的經濟復甦計劃提供了持續支持。
Policies which caused the yen to weakenfrom ￥80 against the dollar in late 2012 to ￥125 in mid-2015 made Tokyo aparticular magnet for luxury shoppers: at one point, and in defiance ofconventional thinking, analysts calculated that a top-of-the-range LouisVuitton bag was cheaper in Tokyo than in low-tax Hong Kong.
2012年末，日元兌美元匯率爲1美元兌80日元，由於政策的變化，到2015年年中變爲1美元兌125日元，這讓東京尤其吸引奢侈品買家：分析師估計，最高檔的路易威登(Louis Vuitton)手袋有一個階段在東京的售價比稅率較低的香港還要便宜，這在傳統上是不可思議的。
Moves to relax the visa application processfor Chinese spurred things further, creating an uNPRecedented wave of customersfor jewellery boutiques that had grown used to handling a trickle of browserseach day.
放鬆中國人赴日簽證申請程序的舉措，進一步刺激了中國人赴日旅遊的熱情，掀起了一波史無前例的珠寶店搶購潮——此前這些珠寶店已經習慣了每天應對少數幾個光看不買的客人。
The decision by Japan’s two mainairlines, JAL and ANA, to offer double baggage allowance on economy-classflights from Chinese cities to Tokyo provided yet more incentive to cram bagswith the highest-end goods that Japan could offer.
日本航空(JAL)和全日空(ANA)兩家主要航空公司決定允許從中國城市飛往東京的經濟艙遊客免費託運兩件行李，這讓遊客更有動力將日本的最高端商品塞進行李箱。
Wei Lijia is one of a growing number ofChinese who staff the luxury goods sales floors of department stores likeMitsukoshi and Takashimaya to ensure that Chinese tourists receive, in Mandarinand with subtle nods to their national taste, the impeccable service for whichJapan is known.
三越和高島屋(Takashimaya)等百貨商店的奢侈品賣場聘請越來越多的中國員工，這讓中國遊客能夠享受日本出了名的完美服務，這些職員說中文，而且向中國遊客微微點頭，認同他們的品味，魏麗佳（音譯）就是其中之一。
Luxury goods mean something different toChinese and Japanese.
她表示：奢侈品對中國人和日本人的涵義不同。
They both understand quality and price, butfor Japanese there is always this feeling that the actual purchase can wait.
他們都明白品質和價格，但日本人總是覺得可以等等再買。
For the Chinese, there is this idea that ifthey don’t buy it now, it will be gone while they are thinking about it, saysMs Wei.
但中國人的想法是，如果現在不下手，在他們猶猶豫豫的時候好東西就被人家買去了。
In another symbol of Japan’s rapidadaptation to outsiders’ sense of glamour, the transport ministry has begun astudy on whether it should encourage taxi companies to operate stretch limousines— vehicles that represent the very opposite of Japan’s lower-key approach toluxury.
日本國土交通省開始研究是否應該鼓勵出租車公司運營加長型豪車——這種車與日本對奢侈品的低調態度正好相反——這是日本快速迎合外來者奢華感的又一象徵。
The rise in tourist numbers has been feltnationwide, but especially so in Ginza, where even on a drizzly Tuesday nightin September the pavements are thronged and Mandarin is the main language onthe shop floors.
整個日本都能感受到旅遊人數的增長，但銀座的感受尤其深刻——在今年9月的一個週二晚上，即便下着小雨，但銀座的人行道上擠滿了人，賣場裏到處是中國人的說話聲。
However, concern is rising over thesustainability of the boom.
然而，人們日益懷疑這種繁榮能否持續。
Discounting by US department stores,tumbling tourist flows in Europe, especially Paris, and high double-digit fallsin the once feverish markets of Hong Kong and Macau have cut growth expectationsfor the full year in 2016 to between 0 per cent and 2 per cent; in some cases,there may be contraction.
美國百貨商店打折、歐洲遊客流量驟降（尤其是在巴黎），以及一度炙手可熱的香港和澳門市場出現較高兩位數的降幅，讓2016年全年增長預期下降至0至2%之間，甚至在某些情況下還可能出現負增長。
In September, luxury conglomerate Richemontreported sales down 13 per cent in constant currencies in the five months tothe end of August and stressed weakness in Hong Kong and Macau.
今年9月，奢侈品巨頭歷峯(Richemont)報告稱，在截止8月底的5個月裏，銷售按不變匯率計算下降13%，香港和澳門的銷售尤其疲弱。
Bain & Co analysts, meanwhile, confirm Japanas the world’s top market for luxury growth, predicting between 5 per cent and 7per cent growth.
與此同時，貝恩分析師證實日本是全球奢侈品增長最快的市場，預計增長在5%-7%之間。
The biggest source of risk, say analysts,remains the yen.
分析師們表示，最大的風險源頭依然是日元。
July spending by tourists in Japan’s departmentstores was 20 per cent lower than the same month a year earlier.
今年7月日本百貨公司的遊客支出同比下降20%。
Over that 12 month period, notcoincidentally, the yen strengthened by almost 20 per cent.
並非巧合的是，在這12個月期間日元升值了近20%
