安倍經濟學初見效 普通日本人卻高興不起來

TOKYO — Hiroyuki Hara has increased prices at his flower shop in recent months, part of a broad reversal of the deflation that has long plagued Japan’s economy. Getting prices rising is a national goal, but Mr. Hara isn’t sure the new landscape is any more vibrant.

東京——最近幾個月，原裕之（Hiroyuki Hara，音譯）經營的花店漲價了。這反映了一個宏觀趨勢，即長期困擾日本經濟的通貨緊縮正在扭轉。讓物價上漲是一項國家目標，但原裕之不確定的是，新的狀態是否算得上更具活力。

“We used to get a lot of office workers in here, but now it’s mostly just older people, the ones with savings,” he says. Sales are down this year. He blames the shrinking buying power of his customers’ paychecks.

“過去我們的顧客中有許多白領，現在主要是年齡稍大的人，有積蓄的那些，”原裕之說。銷售額在今年出現了下降。他認爲這是因爲顧客收入的購買力縮水了。

Mr. Hara’s own costs are mounting too, as a precipitous decline in the value of Japan’s currency has made imported flowers pricier. And although he is charging more, the extra money is going to the government, which controversially raised sales taxes in April. A further tax increase is planned for next year. “It has me worried,” Mr. Hara says.

原裕之的經營成本也在上漲，因爲日元的急劇貶值已經讓進口花卉變得更昂貴。儘管他提高了價格，但多收的錢都流向了政府。今年4月，日本政府在爭議聲中提高了消費稅。還有計劃明年再次增稅。“這讓我很擔心，”原裕之說。

Japan’s audacious campaign to reinvigorate its economy is entering a make-or-break phase.

日本旨在振興經濟的大膽行動，正在進入一個成敗攸關的階段。

After nearly two years of aggressive stimulus under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, joblessness has plunged, big companies like Toyota are earning record profits and corrosive price declines have been replaced by something Japan has rarely seen in decades — inflation.

在首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)政府積極的經濟刺激措施實施了近兩年之後，失業率大幅下降，豐田(Toyota)等大型企業的利潤正創下新高，對經濟有害的價格下跌的狀況消失了，取而代之的是幾十年來在日本十分罕見的通貨膨脹。

Yet the benefits of Abenomics, as the program is known, have been unevenly distributed. Many consumers and businesses simply don’t feel better off.

然而，這種被稱爲“安倍經濟學”的政策帶來的益處並不均衡。許多顧客和企業並沒有感到情況出現了改善。

The problem threatens to undermine support for the effort at a critical juncture. Economic output fell sharply in the second quarter, immediately after April’s sales tax increase — evidence that consumer confidence remains fragile. Mr. Abe will soon have to decide whether to move forward with the next tax increase or table it.

這一問題可能會在當前的緊要關頭削弱對刺激政策的支持。在4月份上調了消費稅之後，二季度經濟產出大幅下降，這證明了消費者信心仍然相當脆弱。安倍晉三很快需要決定，是再次增稅，還是暫時擱置這一計劃。

“There is a spreading sense of disappointment with Abenomics,” says Masazumi Wakatabe, an economics professor at Waseda University in Tokyo. The fact that prices are rising is not, by itself, a bad thing. Just the opposite: The government and most economists see it as preferable to the deflation that has dogged Japan since the late 1990s.

“對安倍經濟學的失望情緒正在蔓延，”東京早稻田大學(Waseda University)的經濟學教授若田部昌澄(Masazumi Wakatabe)說。物價上漲本身不是壞事。恰恰相反：日本政府和多數經濟學家認爲，它比通貨緊縮要好。自上世紀90年代末開始，日本就一直受到通貨緊縮的困擾。

When prices fall, it encourages households and businesses to squirrel away cash, holding back growth. Deflation also makes it difficult for central banks to rally an economy by cutting interest rates, which in Japan have been stuck at zero for years.

當物價下降時，就會鼓勵家庭和企業把現金囤積起來，這就抑制了增長。通貨緊縮還讓央行更加難以通過下調利率來提振經濟。日本已連續多年保持零利率水平。

Yet the public is showing clear signs of inflation fatigue. In a poll published on Monday by the Tokyo Broadcasting System, a national television network, nine in 10 respondents said they had no “real feeling” that the government initiatives were improving living standards.

然而公衆正明顯表現出通脹疲勞的跡象。在東京廣播公司(Tokyo Broadcasting System)週一公佈的民意調查中，每10個受訪者中就有九人表示，沒有“真正感到”政府的行動正在改善生活水平。

Instead of the balanced rise in prices and wages that Mr. Abe promised, pay has lagged, in effect making workers poorer. Adjusted for price changes, household incomes were down a full 6 percent in September compared with a year earlier.

工資水平沒有像安倍承諾的那樣，與物價同步增長，而是停滯不前，實際上讓工薪階層更貧窮了。根據物價水平變化進行調整之後，日本人的家庭收入9月同比下降了6%。

Kathy M. Matsui, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, says sluggish wage growth is partly the flip side to Japan’s protective employment practices. “The social contract is what? It’s when times are tough, unlike in the West, we’ll keep you on the payroll, although we’ll slash your wages,” she says. “But then when times get good, you don’t get as much of what you might get elsewhere.”

高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)的分析師凱茜·鬆井(Kathy M. Matsui)說，工資增長緩慢一定程度上是日本保護性僱傭慣例的副作用。“社會契約是什麼？就是我們和西方不同，在經濟困難的時期，我們還是會給你發工資，雖然會減薪，”她說。“但當情況好轉之後，你也不會獲得可以在其他地方拿到的高工資。”

Rather than ease efforts to create inflation, the central bank has redoubled them. In an unexpected decision, the Bank of Japan said on Friday that it would expand its program of buying government bonds and other assets to the equivalent of more than $700 billion a year. The move, intended to stimulate borrowing and spending, spurred a rally in global stocks.

央行沒有放鬆製造通脹的做法，而是付出了加倍的努力。日本銀行(Bank of Japan)週五出人意料地宣佈，將擴大購買政府債券和其他資產的行動，使之達到每年價值逾7000億美元的規模。此舉旨在刺激借貸和消費，全球股市應聲上揚。

“We are at a critical point for escaping deflation,” Haruhiko Kuroda, the central bank governor, said, adding that “half measures” would only bring back Japan’s “deflationary mind-set.” Hinting at what could be more stimulus to come, he added that the Bank of Japan would do whatever it took to meet its official target of 2 percent “core” price increases, a measure that excludes the effect of taxes and other items.

“我們正處在擺脫通貨緊縮的關鍵時刻，”央行行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)說，“半途而廢”只會讓日本的“通縮思維”捲土重來。他說，日本央行將採取一切必要手段，達到“核心”通脹率2%的官方目標，這一指標剔除了稅負和其他項目的影響。這一表態暗示着，未來可能會推出更多刺激措施。

But the aggressive stimulus, which has pushed down the value of the yen, is only complicating matters. At the outset, the currency’s retreat was universally embraced as a relief for Japan’s many exporters. Now it is feeding concerns that imports are too expensive. The value of the yen is down more than 30 percent against the dollar since 2012. Exports were supposed to flourish in response, but the trade balance has instead been stuck in deficit.

但積極的刺激措施只是讓事情變得更加複雜了。這些做法壓低了日元匯率。一開始，日元的貶值受到了普遍的歡迎，被當做了許多日本出口商的福音。如今，它卻開始激發進口商品過於昂貴的擔憂。自從2012年以來，日元對美元貶值超過30%。出口本應該因此增長，但恰恰相反，日本仍處於貿易逆差。

It is not just the flowers in Mr. Hara’s shop that are costlier, but also big-ticket items like oil and natural gas, consumption of which has soared since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. Nuclear power plants remain closed nationwide, and electricity bills have leapt by double digits as a consequence.

漲價的不光是原裕之店裏的花卉，還有石油和天然氣等高價商品。自2011年福島核事故發生以來，石油和天然氣的消耗量飆升。日本各地的核電站仍處於關閉狀態，電費因此出現了兩位數的上漲。

“If the yen weakens any further, it would be bad for Japan’s economy as a whole,” Genichi Tamatsuka, the president of Lawson, one of Japan’s biggest convenience store chains, told reporters this week.

“如果日元進一步走低，會對整個日本經濟造成不良影響，”日本大型便利連鎖店羅森(Lawson)的總裁玉塚元一(Genichi Tamatsuka)本週告訴記者。

In parliament on Tuesday, Mr. Abe was forced to defend the central bank actions that have depressed the currency. “When the yen falls, there are issues that go with that fall, and we have to deal with them,” he said, though he gave no sign that he would pressure Mr. Kuroda to reverse course.

週二在國會，安倍晉三不得不爲央行壓低日元匯率的行爲進行了辯解。他說，“日元貶值時，會產生很多問題，需要我們加以解決。”不過他沒有表示會要求黑田東彥改變路線。

The sales tax increase has drawn the most intense opposition. The two-stage rise was authorized by a previous government, as a means of tackling Japan’s vast public debt. The second part, which is scheduled for October, will take the rate to 10 percent — double what it was before the first increase.

提高消費稅稅率一事招致了最爲激烈的反對。增稅是由之前的政府批准的，分兩階段進行，爲的是消化日本的鉅額公共債務。第二階段定於明年10月執行，將把稅率提至10%，是第一次增稅前稅率的兩倍還多。

Mr. Abe has the authority to stop it if he judges the economy too fragile. But he must make his choice by next month to get a revised tax law through parliament in time. So far he has been coy, saying only that he wants to make a “coolheaded decision.”

如果安倍晉三認爲經濟過於脆弱，他有權不予實施。不過，他必須在下月作出決定，才能讓修定的稅法及時獲得國會通過。截至目前，他一直不願明確態度，只是表示自己希望做出“冷靜的決定”。

Some lawmakers and economists close to the government have urged the prime minister to postpone, by perhaps 18 months, thus, giving time, they hope, for wages to catch up to prices and create a less painful kind of inflation. “We need to prioritize economic growth,” Kozo Yamamoto, a lawmaker in Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party who helped plan the stimulus policies, said in an interview.

一批與政府關係密切的議員和經濟學家敦促他推遲增稅，比如延期18個月。他們希望，這樣就能留出時間來，讓民衆的薪資趕上物價的上漲，創造一種不那麼令人痛苦的通脹。“我們需要把經濟增長放到首位，”山本幸三議員(Kozo Yamamoto)接受採訪時稱。他來自來安倍晉三所在的自民黨，參與了經濟刺激政策的籌劃工作。

Most of Japan’s business and political leaders are lined up on the other side of the debate, citing potential danger to the country’s creditworthiness if financial markets conclude the country is turning away from fiscal discipline. The powerful finance ministry, corporate executives, bankers and even the largest opposition party favor going ahead as planned. Sadayuki Sakakibara, chairman of Keidanren, the lobby group that represents Japan’s biggest companies, has called the tax increase a “national issue” that “can’t be avoided.”

不過，日本商界與政界的多數領導人物都持相反的看法。他們的理由是，假如金融市場斷定日本背離財政自律，有可能會讓國家信譽受損。頗有權勢的財務省、企業高管、銀行業高層、乃至最大的反對黨，一致青睞按原定計劃增稅。代表日本大企業的遊說團體“日本經濟團體聯合會”(Keidanren)的會長榊原定徵(Sadayuki Sakakibara)表示，增稅是“不可逃避”的“國家問題”。

Even Mr. Kuroda, the Bank of Japan governor, is pushing for the tax rise to go ahead. He is doing so despite complaints that it will widen the gap between wages and prices and discourage the precise thing he is trying to foster, consumer spending.

就連日本央行行長黑田東彥也在推動如期增稅。儘管有人抱怨，增稅將拉大薪資與物價的差距，抑制他正竭力促進的消費性開支，但他依然主張這樣做。

A finance ministry official before he became a central banker, he views the tax as essential to addressing the debt, which relative to the size of the economy is the largest in the world. By printing money freely, he is creating what he hopes will be a cushion against its economic impact.

供職央行之前，黑田東彥曾是財務省的官員。日本國債的規模與經濟總量的比例爲全球第一。他認爲，消費稅是應對這一問題的關鍵所在。他希望通過大肆印鈔，來創造出一個緩衝，減輕增稅對經濟的影響。

“If there were a loss of confidence in the government’s finances,” Mr. Kuroda said last week, “it would be extremely difficult to deal with.”

“如果對政府的財務狀況喪失了信心，”黑田東彥本週稱。“應對起來就會非常困難。”