亞洲市場感受歐美日經濟危機

Despite robust economic growth in many parts of Asia, stock markets in the region this week have closely followed the sharp swings in stock prices in the United States and Europe.

雖然亞洲各國在經濟上都有了強健的增長，但這個星期的亞洲股票市場緊隨美國及歐洲股價大跌之後，受到影響。亞洲開發銀行的經濟學家說，股市的飄搖不定，顯示亞洲經濟正降低對西方國家出口依賴的說法，言過其實。

In the last week, Asian stock prices followed the trend set by stock markets in the United States and Europe, falling from Friday to Tuesday on eurozone fears and the U.S. debt downgrade, rebounding Wednesday after the United States said it would hold rates at record lows for two years. On Thursday, Asian markets initially dropped sharply, but ended the day less than one percent down. At one point on Thursday, gold surged to a record high of more than $1,800 an ounce.

上星期，歐元區的恐慌和美國債信下調，導致兩方股市自上星期五到本星期二期間的大跌。8月10日(星期三)又在美國宣稱將於今後兩年間維持低利率不變之後，股市重新回升。亞洲股市一直緊隨這項趨勢變動。本星期四，亞洲股市直線下降，但當日仍以下跌不到百分之一收市。同時，星期四的金價一度上揚，破了每盎司1,800美元大關，創新紀錄。

Economist Cyn Young Park, with the Asian Development Bank in Manila, says these are uncertain times for Asian investors as well those in the West. News of U.S. credit rating downgrade highlighted their concerns about the sluggish economies in their primary export markets. She says the volatile swing in stock prices in Asia and an increased demand for gold are temporary moves by investors to play it safe, for now.

設於馬尼拉的亞洲開發銀行姓樸的經濟學家說，現在對亞洲和西方的投資人來說，都是不確定的時期。美國信用評級下調的消息，凸顯出他們對主要出口市場經濟成長遲滯的憂心。她說，亞洲動盪中的股價，以及對黃金的需求，屬於投資人目前暫時的動向。"This is really more like a psychological [shock] and then a panic," said Park. "And, if they are not able to contain this, that really can create more problems for the real economies. But at this stage we still need to wait and see whether this sort of a financial turmoil will translate into something more real."

樸女士說：“實際上，這更像是一種心理上的震撼， 然後是恐慌。同時，如果他們無法掌控這些情勢，就會對實際的經濟產生更多的問題。但是在這個階段，我們仍需要稍候，看一看這次金融上的動盪，會不會轉成更爲實際的現象。”

She says Asian stock markets are accurately reflecting concern about the economic health of the region. Although many investors and economic officials in Asia have said the growth of the middle class and trade within the region are making Asia less dependent on the G3 economies of the United States, Europe and Japan, Park says Asia is not yet economically insulated.

她說，亞洲股票市場準確地反映了對這個地區經濟上是否健康的關切。雖然，許多亞洲的投資人和經濟官員曾經說過，本區域中產階級和貿易的成長，使亞洲減少了對美國，歐洲和日本三方面的依賴，樸女士說，亞洲仍然不能在經濟上做到完全的絕緣。

"Despite really strong growth in the inter-regional trade, the final demand still lies with the Atlantic economies, the G3 economies," said Park. "With the G3 economies all sort of going through this severe, you know, crisis of confidence and then don't really know whether or not that it is going to affect heavily on their real economy, investors ought to be a little jittery."

樸女士說：“儘管在區域間貿易上成長有堅強的成長，最終的需求還是有賴大西洋，歐、美、日三大經濟體。一旦這三大經濟體都遭遇了嚴重的信心危機，並且還不知道這些問題會不會對他們的經濟產生重大影響時，投資人就會面臨風聲鶴淚的處境了。”

Park says a lack of global demand should also ease concerns about severe inflation in China and other countries in the region. The Asian Development Bank is urging central banks in Asia to pause measures to contain high inflation until global market turmoil subsidies.

樸女士說，全球性購買需求的不足，也會減緩中國和本區域其它國家嚴重通貨膨脹的壓力。亞洲開發銀行正在呼籲亞洲各國的中央銀行暫停壓制高度通貨膨脹的措施，直到全球市場動盪不安的的情勢平息下來再說。