俄羅斯爲何反對美建立導彈防禦體系？

A ballistic missile defense system stationed in Europe has been a contentious issue between the United States and Russia for many years.

多年來，設在歐洲的彈道導彈防禦體系一直是美國和俄羅斯爭論不休的問題。

The Bush administration first proposed to deploy 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic. That proposal addressed Iran’s long-range ballistic missile threat. But in September 2009, President Barack Obama canceled the Bush plan, opting for what experts describe as a more flexible approach.

布什政府首先提出在波蘭部署10枚攔截導彈，在捷克建立一座雷達設施。這是爲了對付伊朗的遠程彈道導彈威脅而提出的計劃。但是2009年9月，奧巴馬總統取消了布什的這項計劃，專家認爲，這個選擇在做法上更爲靈活。

Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, a private research group, said the Obama system is designed to deal with the missile threat that already exists - the short and medium-range missiles that could come from Iran.

武器控制協會是一個民間研究機構。這個機構的負責人達里爾.金博爾認爲，奧巴馬的導彈防禦體系是爲了對付已經存在的導彈威脅，這些威脅可能來自伊朗的短程和中長程導彈。

“They [Iranians] have short-range ballistic missiles that are capable of reaching their immediate neighbors within a couple hundred kilometers of their border," said Kimball. "They have some medium-range missiles that can strike the edges of Europe and Israel - all of these are armed with conventional warheads.”

他說：“伊朗有短程彈道導彈，能射到鄰國距離邊界兩百公里以內的地方。伊朗還有一些中程導彈，能射到歐洲和以色列的邊緣，這些導彈都安裝了傳統的彈頭。”

Obama missile-defense plan

The Obama plan involves putting SM-3 ground-based interceptors in Poland by 2015 and in Romania by 2018. These are still being developed.

奧巴馬政府計劃在2015年之前在波蘭，2018年之前在羅馬尼亞設立陸基SM-3導彈攔截器。這個計劃正在發展階段。

But Marko Papic, analyst with STRATFOR, a private intelligence firm, said there are SM-3 missiles aboard U.S. Navy ships and those are included in the Obama missile defense plan.

但是民間情報公司STRATFOR的分析師馬爾科.帕皮克說，美國海軍船艦上載有SM-3導彈，這是在奧巴馬的導彈防禦計劃之內。

“The United States can position wherever the threat is most imminent from," said Papic. "So, for example, the U.S. could steam its vessels into the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean or the Black Sea and position a counter to potential missile threats from the Middle East or from North Korea from there - which is why the ground-based component of it, it’s not really clear it’s even necessary.”

馬爾科.帕皮克說：“美國的導彈能對準來自各方最逼近的威脅。比方說，美國能把船艦開進波羅的海、地中海或黑海，鎖定的位置用來反制來自中東或北韓的導彈威脅。這就是爲什麼美國可能根本不需要地基導彈攔截器。”

For years, Russian officials have criticized the U.S. missile defense plan. They do not believe its goal is to defend against possible missile attacks from rogue countries.

多年來，俄羅斯官員一直批評美國的導彈防禦計劃。他們不相信這個計劃的目的是爲了抵禦來自流氓國家的可能的導彈攻擊。Russia's suspicion

Arms control expert Joseph Cirincione said Russia is convinced the U.S. seeks advantage over Moscow, knowing its nuclear forces are slowly declining.

武器控制問題專家約瑟夫.奇林喬內說，俄羅斯認爲，美國知道俄羅斯的核力量正在緩慢衰退，因此美國想趁虛而入。

“They are aging and Russia doesn’t have the money to replace them one-for-one," said Cirincione. "They are worried that the U.S. is going to seek some advantage by putting up a ring of anti-missile systems around Russia, supposedly aimed at Iran but the Russians believe secretly aimed at them, and then be able to take out Russia’s nuclear forces in a first strike, mopping up whatever is left by an anti-missile system that could shoot down Russian missiles. That is a complete fantasy, by the way. There is no truth to that whatsoever.”

他說：“那些核力量正在老化，俄羅斯沒有錢一個一個的更新。俄羅斯擔心美國想通過在俄羅斯周圍設立反導彈圈，來謀取一些好處；這些導彈的目的原本是對付伊朗，但是俄羅斯人認爲，是爲了祕密對付俄羅斯，然後美國就能在首次行動中拿下俄羅斯的核力量，並且用足以打下俄羅斯導彈的反導彈體系來掃蕩殘餘的核力量。其實這完全是幻想，完全不是事實。”

Papic with STRATFOR said that for Moscow, it really doesn’t matter what kind of missiles the Americans put in place in Europe.

STRATFOR公司的分析師馬爾科.帕皮克說，對莫斯科而言，美國在歐洲設置什麼樣的導彈都無關緊要。

“Because ultimately, the Russian deterrent is not countered by this plan - and that’s because Russia has an overwhelming number of intercontinental ballistic missiles that it could launch on Europe if it really wanted to, with, of course, multiple warheads and things like that. So there is absolutely no way America can prevent an attack.”

他說：“因爲說到底，美國的計劃嚇阻不了俄羅斯。這是由於俄羅斯有壓倒性數量的洲際彈道導彈，如果俄羅斯想要的話，這些安置了多枚彈頭的導彈能在歐洲發射。因此美國完全沒有辦法預防俄羅斯的導彈襲擊。”

Fear of US presence

Papic and others say Russia realizes the military part of its criticism is bogus. But Papic said what is unacceptable to Moscow, is that the U.S. missile defense installations represent a move by American forces into central and Eastern Europe.

帕皮克和其他人士說，俄羅斯意識到，它對美國軍事部分的批評是虛張聲勢，但是帕皮克說，莫斯科不接受的是，美國的導彈防設施展現出美國力量進入到了中歐和東歐。

“Fundamentally, what Russia doesn’t want to see, is American quote-unquote ‘boots on the ground’ - moving from their positions of Cold War Germany and Western Europe, closer to Russia’s sphere of influence and periphery,” said Papic.

帕皮克說：“基本上，俄羅斯不想看到的是“美國人的靴子踩上更多土地”，從冷戰時的德國和西歐，移動到距離俄羅斯影響所及和周邊地區更近的地方。”

At the NATO summit in Lisbon last year, the United States and Russia agreed to collaborate on the issue of missile defense. Experts say while some progress has been made, Moscow is still fundamentally opposed to the U.S. missile defense plan.

去年在里斯本舉行的北約高峯會上，美國和俄羅斯同意在導彈防禦問題上進行協作。專家認爲，雖然取得了一些進展，但是莫斯科仍然從根本上反對美國的導彈防禦計劃。