美聯儲珍妮特耶倫9月份會加息嗎
Janet Yellen will deliver the biggest shock to markets since taking over as chair of the Federal Reserve should the central bank raise interest rates this month, according to a survey of Wall Street economists that shows more than 85 per cent expect it to hold fire.
英國《金融時報》對華爾街經濟學家的調查顯示，逾85%的經濟學家預計美聯儲(Fed)本月將按兵不動，因此如果美聯儲本月加息的話，珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)將給市場帶來其就任美聯儲主席以來最大的衝擊。
The scepticism among economists may concern the Fed’s top officials, who have spent the past month trying to persuade financial markets that an increase at their meeting on September 21 is a possibility given that the US unemployment rate is below 5 per cent and the global fallout from the Brexit vote has been muted.
經濟學家的懷疑態度可能讓美聯儲高層官員感到擔憂，他們在過去一個月試圖讓金融市場相信，鑑於美國失業率低於5%，而且英國退歐公投對全球的影響已經消退，9月21日的議息會議是有可能宣佈加息的。
They have succeeded at least in jolting financial markets out of months of complacency, after comments from two voting members on the Fed’s policy-setting committee on Friday sent US stock and bond prices sliding at their greatest rate since June.
上週五美聯儲政策制定委員會兩位擁有投票權的委員的言論讓美國股票和債券價格創下今年6月以來的最大跌幅，美聯儲高層官員至少成功地讓金融市場在震驚中丟掉了數月來的自滿。
Conviction that Fed policymakers, who in January were projecting four rate rises this year, will tighten policy has been drained by a run of mixed US economic data, including slower jobs growth in August and signs that the services sector has lost momentum.
美聯儲的政策制定者今年1月曾預計2016年會加息4次。市場關於他們將會收緊政策的堅定預期，已被一系列喜憂參半的美國經濟數據削弱，這些數據包括8月份就業增長放緩以及服務業失去動力的跡象。
Just 13 per cent of the 46 economists surveyed by the Financial Times forecast a rise in the central bank’s key short-term interest rate this month.
在接受英國《金融時報》調查的46名經濟學家當中，只有13%的人預計美聯儲將在本月上調關鍵短期利率。
Interest-rate futures suggest a 30 per cent probability that the Fed will move this month, a gauge of trader expectations that historically has been more sceptical than economists of the Fed’s appetite to raise interest rates.
利率期貨顯示，美聯儲本月將有30%的機率加息——利率期貨體現交易員預期，與經濟學家相比，交易員們一向對美聯儲的加息意願更持懷疑態度。
However, some believe the Fed’s wilLingness to move this month, even if it is not currently priced in by markets, is underestimated.
然而，一些人相信，美聯儲本月加息意願被低估，儘管當前並未被市場定價反映出來。
Given the recent communication from Fed officials, who have begun to signal that another hike in the near term is appropriate, we think the market has become too complacent, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)經濟學家表示：鑑於最近美聯儲官員的表態——他們開始暗示，近期再次加息是適當的——我們認爲，市場過於自滿。
Speculation the Fed will make a last-ditch effort to lift the market’s expectations of a move in 10 days have been stirred after it emerged late on Thursday that Lael Brainard, a Fed policymaker seen by investors as in no hurry to raise rates, is giving a speech in Chicago on Monday, the final day before a blackout on officials’ public comments before the meeting comes into force.
上週四晚有消息稱，被投資者視爲不急於加息的美聯儲政策制定者萊爾•佈雷納德(Lael Brainard)將於週一——美聯儲議息會議前各位官員公開評論靜默期前的最後一天——在芝加哥發表演講，這促使市場猜測，美聯儲將盡最後努力提升市場對10天后加息的預期。
We also see some risk that she could deliver a speech with a hawkish tilt, according to economists at Barclays, who predict the Fed will move.
巴克萊(Barclays)經濟學家表示：我們也認爲她可能發表帶有鷹派傾向的演講。
If Federal Reserve chair Yellen wants to increase the market-implied probability of a rate hike, this speech is one of her last opportunities.
如果美聯儲主席耶倫希望提高市場預期的加息可能性，這場演講是她的最後機會之一。
An increase next week by the Fed would be a major blow to this year’s rally in fixed income, which has been slowed in recent weeks by speculation over the conclusions of the Bank of Japan’s review of its unconventional policy which it will deliver on the same day the Fed gives its decision.
如果下週美聯儲加息，將對今年固定收益市場的反彈予以沉重打擊——隨着市場對日本央行(BoJ)評估其非常規政策的結論展開揣測，最近幾周反彈已經放緩。日本央行的評估結論將在美聯儲議息決定的同一天發佈。
Bond yields were also pushed higher after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said on Thursday that officials had not even discussed extending the central bank’s own quantitative easing programme, which is in danger of running out of bonds to buy.
歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上週四表示，官員們甚至沒有討論擴大該行自己的量化寬鬆計劃——該計劃可能陷入沒有債券可購買的境地——這也推高了債券收益率。
The yield on the benchmark Japanese 10-year bond is close to positive territory again after falling as low as negative 0.29 per cent in late July; the 10-year German Bund rose above zero for the first time since July on Friday, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has risen from a record low of 1.32 per cent to 1.68 per cent.
日本基準的十年期國債收益率接近正值——今年7月末一度低至-0.29%；十年期德國國債收益率上週五升至正值，這是今年7月以來的首次，同時十年期美國國債收益率從創紀錄低點1.32%升至1.68%。
Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital and an influential bond investor based in Los Angeles, told Reuters on Thursday that the Fed would be prepared to raise rates if interest rate futures put the odds at more than 40 per cent.
DoubleLine Capital創始人、洛杉磯頗具影響力的債券投資者傑弗裏•岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)上週四向路透社(Reuters)表示，如果利率期貨顯示的加息機率超過40%，美聯儲就會準備加息。
They want to show that they are not guided by the markets.
他們希望表明，他們不受市場的指引。
The Fed’s first rate increase since the financial crisis came last December, when markets had priced in an almost 80 per cent chance of the move.
去年12月，美聯儲自金融危機以來首次加息，當時市場定價反映出的加息概率接近80%。
More than 77 per cent of those economists polled by the FT, including several who forecast the Fed will go this month, believe the central bank will only raise once this year.
接受英國《金融時報》調查的經濟學家當中——包括數位預計美聯儲本月加息的經濟學家——逾77%的人認爲美聯儲今年只會加一次息。
Several also downgraded their expectations for further tightening from the Fed next year, the survey found. The median projection showed two further increases, taking rates to 1.125 per cent.
調查發現，數位經濟學家還調低了對美聯儲明年進一步加息的預期，預期中值是認爲美聯儲還會進行兩次加息，將利率提高至1.125%。
However, the share of economists expecting more than half a percentage point of additional tightening in 2017 fell to 20 per cent from 30 per cent in the FT’s last survey in July.
然而，預期2017年再加息逾0.5個百分點的經濟學家的佔比降至20%，而英國《金融時報》7月份調查時是30%。
The FT conducted its survey between September 6 and 9.
英國《金融時報》在9月6日到9日開展了此次調查。
The Fed was also seen as unlikely to turn to negative rates if the US economy required further stimulus.
經濟學家還認爲，如果美國經濟需要進一步刺激，美聯儲不太可能求助於負利率。
More than half said they believed the US central bank had ruled out negative interest rate policy after its rollout in Europe and Asia plunged yields on more than $13tn of assets below zero and intensified risks for the financial sector.
逾半數的受訪經濟學家表示，在歐洲和亞洲率先推行負利率、導致逾13萬億美元資產的收益率跌至負值並加劇金融行業風險之後，他們相信美聯儲已經排除了負利率政策。
