分析表示 新興市場不懼美聯儲加息

It’s all very well removing the punchbowl from your own party. But what about when the rich family next door have been supplying liquor to the neighbourhood’s teenagers for the best part of a decade and eventually decide to stop?

從你自己的宴會上撤走大酒杯無可厚非。但是隔壁有錢人家在這十年的大部分時間裏一直請所有街坊鄰居家的青少年喝酒，如今終於決定不再這麼做，這是不是也沒什麼？

The Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, at which it may raise interest rates after leaving them on hold for nearly seven years, has naturally raised concern among emerging markets. Before this year’s falls in commodity prices and currencies, the two defining episodes in EM assets since the global financial crisis have been the taper tantrums of mid-2013 and early 2014 at the very prospect of the Fed removing monetary stimulus.

美聯儲(Fed)將於本週舉行議息會議，在保持利率不變近7年之後，他們可能會在此次會議上決定加息，這自然引發了新興市場的擔憂。在今年大宗商品價格和匯率下跌之前，新興市場資產自全球金融危機以來的兩段重要插曲就是，2013年中期和2014年初因美聯儲表露出可能退出貨幣刺激政策的意向而出現的兩次“削減恐慌”(taper tantrum)。

This week the World Bank’s chief economist, Kaushik Basu, weighed in on the subject, saying that a premature Fed rate rise could wreak havoc across emerging markets, leading to further destabilising capital outflows. It may seem unusual, then, that several EM policymakers themselves seem quite relaxed at the prospect. At the corroboree of monetary policy experts at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, recently, several EM central bankers lined up to say that the US might actually be better getting on and raising rates sooner rather than later.

世界銀行(World Bank)首席經濟學家考希克巴蘇(Kaushik Basu)上週加入了這個話題的討論，他表示，美聯儲過早加息可能會重創整個新興市場，導致破壞穩定的資本外流進一步加劇。那麼似乎有些異常的是，數位新興市場的政策制定者對美國可能會加息似乎滿不在乎。最近在懷俄明州的傑克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole)舉行的美聯儲年度會議上，全球貨幣政策專家匯聚一堂的時候，數位新興市場央行官員一齊表示，美國按原計劃儘早加息可能更好。

It was notable that one of the most prominent was Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, who told the Wall Street Journal that, from an emerging market perspective, it might be preferable to have “a move early on and an advertised, slow move up” than an abrupt tightening later. Early last year, Mr Rajan broke the usual central bankers’ omertàabout each other’s actions by explicitly criticising the Fed’s decision to start slowing its asset purchases under its quantitative easing programme.

值得注意的是，其中最知名的一位是印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行長拉古拉姆拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)，他向《華爾街日報》(the Wall Street Journal)表示，在新興市場看來，“早一點開始，並在充分預熱的前提下緩慢加息”，可能好過遲些時候大幅加息。去年年初，拉詹打破了各央行行長通常遵循的緘默原則（即對彼此的做法不做評論），明確對美聯儲減慢其量化寬鬆項目下資產購買速度的決定加以批評。

To some extent, as in Mr Rajan’s comments, the EM central bank enthusiasm for a Fed increase simply reflects tactical considerations: if it were done when ’tis done, ’twere well it were done quickly. If the Fed is seen to be holding off because of fear of the market impact, the US central bank could get into a destabilising game of chicken with investors.

正如拉詹的言論所反映出的那樣，新興市場央行之所以希望美聯儲儘快加息，在某種程度上只是出於戰術上的考量：要是幹了以後就完了，那麼還是快一點幹（引《麥克白》中名句——譯者注）。如果人們認爲美聯儲暫時不加息是因爲擔心加息對市場的影響，那麼美聯儲可能會被迫與投資者玩起破壞穩定的“懦夫博弈”。

But it also reflects irritation with those liberally minded parents down the road and the effect of super-low interest rates on encouraging EM borrowing over the past decade. The flood of “currency war” accusations in 2010-11 that the Fed was in effect driving down the dollar mainly came from finance ministries rather than central banks. But there is no doubt that a flood of cheap money into their economies that drove up their exchange rates made their task as monetary policymakers more difficult.

不過，新興市場的這種態度，也反映出它們對鄰居中那些想得開的父母以及過去十年超低利率促使新興市場大舉借貸的不滿。2010年至2011年，指責美聯儲實際上在壓低美元匯率、打“匯率戰”的聲浪很高，這股聲浪主要來自新興市場國家的財政部，而非它們的央行。但毫無疑問的是，當時潮水般涌入這些經濟體的廉價資金推升了它們的本幣匯率，加大了它們的貨幣政策制定者的工作難度。

In certain countries — Brazil and Turkey leap to mind — easy money made it simpler for governments to run loose fiscal policy, thus worsening the exchange rate overvaluations and the size of corrections when they came. More capital outflows and tighter credit conditions may force more domestic adjustment, but adjustment had to come at some stage.

在特定的某些國家——腦海裏很快浮現的是巴西和土耳其——寬鬆資金讓政府更容易推行寬鬆財政政策，從而加劇了本幣匯率的高估，在調整的時候調整幅度也更大。更多的資本外流和信貸環境的收緊可能迫使國內出現更多調整，但調整遲早也都是會來的。

The varying confidence with which central banks face a Fed rate rise — and the prospect that it will push their currencies down further — reflects their economic positioning and credibility. For China, it will exacerbate their problems of capital outflow: Yao Yudong of the People’s Bank of China’s research institution blamed the prospect of a Fed increase for turmoil in Chinese financial markets and said a rate rise should be delayed. Central banks in Brazil and Turkey have already faced the unenviable task of tightening policy to squeeze inflation out of economies heading into recession. More falls in exchange rates and capital outflows will make their task yet harder and are likely to keep domestic policy tighter for longer.

面對美聯儲可能加息、以及本國貨幣將進一步被壓低，各國央行表現出的不同底氣，反映出它們的經濟狀況和可信度。美聯儲加息將加劇中國的資本外流問題：中國央行(PBoC)金融研究所的姚餘棟認爲美國可能加息是造成中國金融市場動盪的罪魁禍首，並稱美聯儲應推遲加息。巴西和土耳其的央行已經面臨一個艱難使命：在經濟正在步入衰退之際收緊貨幣政策、擠掉通脹。匯率進一步下跌和資本進一步外流，將讓它們的任務更加艱鉅，可能延長它們保持從緊政策的時間。

EMs with direct exposure to the US economy may have to raise rates in response to a Fed rise but still welcome it, assuming it means that the US is growing sufficiently quickly to offset the contractionary impact with an expansion in export demand. Agustín Carstens, governor of the Mexican central bank, has said that he would like a tightening even if he had to follow suit.

美聯儲加息可能會讓對美國經濟有直接敞口的新興國家不得不跟着加息，但考慮到美聯儲加息意味着美國經濟在以足夠快的速度增長、帶來的出口需求增加會抵消掉加息對經濟的緊縮效應，這些新興國家仍對加息表示歡迎。墨西哥央行行長阿古斯丁慍斯滕斯(Agustín Carstens)表示，他希望美聯儲加息，即便這樣的話他也得跟着加息。

For economies such as India, a net commodity importer with stable inflation and relatively little recent capital outflow, the central bank will most likely be able to keep cutting interest rates, moving in a different direction to the Fed. Mr Rajan has done a lot to get on top of inflation and instil credibility in India’s monetary policy since his appointment in September 2013, which no doubt explains his changed attitude to the prospect of a Fed tightening.

對於印度這樣的經濟體而言，央行很有可能可以持續降息，與美聯儲保持步調相反。印度是一個淨大宗商品進口國，通脹穩定，近期資金流出相對較少。自2013年9月上任以來，拉詹採取了很多措施，以控制通脹並向印度貨幣政策注入可信度，這無疑解釋了他爲何對美聯儲可能加息改變了態度。

Central and eastern Europe, or at least the more westerly net commodity importers, also have relatively little to fear from a Fed rate rise. In Poland, where interest rates have been at 1.5 per cent since they were cut in March, the recent falls in commodity prices mean the central bank may be able to leave rates on hold for longer, and is very unlikely to have to react quickly to a move by the Fed.

中歐和東歐，或者至少更接近西方國家的淨大宗商品進口國，也相對不那麼擔心美聯儲加息。波蘭自3月降息以來，利率一直維持在1.5%，最近大宗商品價格下跌意味着，該國央行或許能夠在更長時間內保持利率不變，而且它必須迅速對美聯儲加息作出反應的可能性極低。

The horror about a Fed tightening no doubt owes something to history, at least for those with long memories. The sustained rise in US interest rates that began in 1994, apart from causing the famed bloodbath in the Treasury market, also led to some of the worst EM experiences in modern times, sparking the Asian and Russian financial crisis three years later. But those were crises of dollar-pegged exchange rates, where US monetary policy was much more directly imported into the economies concerned.

圍繞美聯儲加息的恐慌無疑在一定程度上源於歷史，至少對於那些記性比較好的國家而言是這樣。從1994年開始，美聯儲持續加息，除了造成國債市場著名的暴跌之外，還給一些新興國家帶來了近代以來最糟糕的經歷，並在3年後引發亞洲和俄羅斯金融危機。但這些屬於盯住美元的匯率制度的危機，美國的貨幣政策當時更直接地輸入到了這些經濟體。

Although the private sector has borrowed heavily in dollars in some EMs, governments are currently much less exposed than in earlier eras. Current account deficits have also come down considerably in many EMs since the taper tantrums of 2013 and 2014.

如今，儘管一些新興市場的私營部門借入了大量美元債務，但政府的美元敞口遠遠低於以前。自2013年和2014年的“削減恐慌”以來，許多新興市場的經常賬戶赤字也縮小了不少。

The prospect of higher US interest rates next month will not be filling anyone with glee, but many EM central bankers are sounding much more confident than their finance ministry counterparts and more relaxed than they were before. All parties have to end at some point: the parents of those guests who were relatively abstemious are more likely to face their ensuing hangovers with equanimity.

美國下月可能加息，這不會讓任何人歡喜，但很多新興國家央行行長聽上去要比這些國家的財政部長自信得多，同時心態也比之前輕鬆。宴席總有散的時候：那些飲食相對節制的小賓客的父母們，更有可能冷靜地面對孩子們第二天的宿醉。