美聯儲鴿派 過早加息並不明智

The prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate rise this month receded further yesterday after a senior policymaker set out a series of arguments for not rushing into an increase.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)本月加息的可能性昨日進一步減小，原因是一名資深政策制定者闡述了一系列不急於加息的理由。

Amid fevered speculation about the US central bank’s policy meeting next week, which on Friday helped trigger the worst bout of market turmoil since the Brexit vote, Lael Brainard called for caution on rates.

在美國央行下週政策會議引發狂熱猜測的背景下（上週五這些猜測在一定程度上引發了自英國公投退歐以來最糟糕的市場動盪），萊爾•佈雷納德(Lael Brainard)呼籲在利率上謹慎。

She cited doggedly below-target inflation, risks from overseas and a limited arsenal to counter future economic setbacks.

她提到了頑固低於目標的通脹，來自海外的風險，以及應對未來經濟挫折的武器有限。

The comments by Ms Brainard, a dovish Fed governor and permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, will make it harder for Fed hawks to seal the case for an increase in rates as soon as September 21.

佈雷納德是一名鴿派的美聯儲理事和聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)常任成員，她的這些言論將加大美聯儲鷹派最早在9月21日就拍板加息的難度。

Interest rates futures indicated yesterday that investors see a 22 per cent chance of a rate hike this month, down from 28 per cent before she spoke.

昨日利率期貨顯示，投資者認爲本月加息的機率爲22%，低於佈雷納德發表上述講話之前的28%。

The Fed would run the risk of provoking a sharp market reaction if it surprised investors by moving next week.

美聯儲如果在下週出乎投資者意料上調利率，將面臨引發劇烈市場反應的風險。

In recent weeks, divisions have opened up between US central bank policymakers over when to move rates as some officials fret about the risks of waiting too long and allowing the economy to overheat.

最近幾周，美國央行政策制定者在何時加息的問題上暴露出分歧。一些官員爲等待太久、以至於讓經濟過熱的風險發愁。

Ms Brainard made clear in her speech that she thinks the risks of tightening policy too soon far outweigh those of waiting, given the economic hazards looming globally.

佈雷納德在演講中表明，鑑於全球浮現的經濟陰霾，她認爲收緊政策過早的風險遠遠超過等待的風險。

She told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that Fed policymakers needed to take into account a number of new factors in setting rates.

她告訴芝加哥全球事務委員會(Chicago Council on Global Affairs)，美聯儲政策制定者在設定利率時需要考慮一些新的因素。

Among them was inflation’s persistently below-target level, and the possibility that the relationship between strong hiring and inflation has weakened.

這些因素包括持續低於目標的通脹水平，以及強勁招聘與通脹之間關聯度已經減弱的可能性。

Recent developments suggest some reasons to be concerned more about undershooting than overshooting on inflation, she said.

近期事態似乎表明，有一些理由更擔憂（通脹）偏低，而不是偏高，她說。

In addition, indicators such as the depressed rate of labour-force participation among prime-age people and low wage growth meant the Fed should be open to the possibility of material further progress in the labour market, suggesting its officials should not do anything to get in the way.

此外，一些指標——如壯年人羣的勞動參與率低迷，以及工資漲幅較低——意味着，美聯儲應該對勞動力市場進一步實質性進展的可能性抱有開放心態，暗示美聯儲官員不應該有任何擋路行爲。

In the presence of uncertainty and the absence of accelerating inflationary pressures, it would be unwise for policy to foreclose on the possibility of making further gains in the labour market, Ms Brainard argued.

在不確定性存在、而加速的通脹壓力不存在的情況下，讓政策扼殺勞動力市場取得進一步進展的可能性將是不明智的，佈雷納德主張道。

To the extent that the effect on inflation of further gradual tightening in labour market conditions is likely to be moderate and gradual, the case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling.

勞動力市場狀況進一步逐漸收緊對通脹的影響很可能是溫和、漸進的，就此而言，先發制人收緊政策的理由不那麼充足。

The two-year Treasury yield had nudged to as high as 0.8 per cent ahead of Ms Brainard’s speech, but fell to a low of 0.775 per cent immediately after.

佈雷納德發表講話之前，兩年期美國國債收益率一度漲至0.8%的高點，但在她發言後很快跌至0.775%。

Longer-maturity Treasuries were largely unmoved, and the two-year yield eventually settled at 0.78 per cent, roughly where it had started the day.

期限較長的美國國債基本上未受影響，而兩年期國債收益率最終穩定在0.78%，與開盤時大致相當。