加息還是不加 美聯儲的決定不好做

WASHINGTON — As markets quake and stock prices fall, investors increasingly are betting that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this year.

華盛頓——隨着股市地震和股價下跌的發生，投資者越來越多地押注美國聯邦儲備今年不會加息。

Their conclusion is a striking rejection of the Fed’s stated plans — and it appears premature.

他們的結論截然否認了美聯儲所聲明的計劃，但似乎下結論還爲時過早。

The Fed watches financial markets closely, of course. Investors are losing money they might have spent, and falling prices can be an indicator of broader economic problems.

美聯儲當然對金融市場有密切觀察。投資者的虧損讓他們失去了可能用來消費的錢，而物價下跌則可能意味着更廣泛的經濟問題。

But the losses so far probably aren’t big enough to crimp growth, and officials have plenty of time to see what happens next. The Fed’s policy making committee doesn’t meet until mid-September, and it has two more meetings scheduled later this year, in October and December.

但是，股市的虧損到目前爲止還沒有大到會妨礙增長的程度，官員們仍有足夠的時間來觀察接下來會發生什麼。美聯儲的政策制定委員會要到9月中旬纔開會，而且今年還有兩次預定的會議，分別是在10月和12月。

“I expect the normalization of monetary policy — that is, interest rates — to begin sometime this year,” Dennis P. Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in a calming speech that he delivered in Berkeley, Calif., on Monday as the closing bell rang in New York, ending another ride on the market roller coaster.

“我預計貨幣政策的正常化、也就是利率正常化，將在今年某個時候開始，”亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)行長丹尼斯·P·洛克哈特(Dennis P. Lockhart)在加利福尼亞州伯克利發表講話。在他週一發表講話之時，紐約股市又經歷了一個過山車式的收盤。

The volatility of financial markets over the last few days contrasts with the stability of domestic economic growth over the last several years. The Fed is focused on that broader picture, and while the pace of growth remains sluggish by past standards, central bank officials have suggested repeatedly that they regard it as good enough.

金融市場過去幾天的動盪與美國國內經濟在過去幾年中穩步增長形成對照。美聯儲關注的是更大範圍的情況，雖然增長速度按照過去的標準來看仍然低迷，但央行官員已多次暗示，他們認爲已經足夠好了。

Mr. Lockhart noted some of the factors that are roiling markets, including the rise of the dollar, China’s currency devaluation and falling oil prices. But he said the Atlanta Fed expected the economy to continue its expansion, including adding jobs.

洛克哈特提到了一些導致市場動盪的因素，包括美元升值、中國貨幣貶值，以及石油價格下跌。但他表示，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行預計經濟將繼續擴張，繼續增加就業機會。

“The current bout of market turmoil, if it continues, might persuade the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates in September,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Monday. “Since that volatility doesn’t reflect any genuine economic slump, however, we wouldn’t be surprised if it proved short-lived, leaving the way open for the Fed to begin raising rates at some point this year.”

“目前一輪的市場動盪，如果繼續下去，可能會說服美聯儲推遲9月份的加息，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的北美首席經濟學家保羅·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)週一寫道。“但由於這種股市波動並不是真正的經濟衰退的反映，如果事實證明波動是暫時的，給美聯儲留有在今年某個時候開始加息的餘地，我們也不會感到驚訝。”

Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, has said that the Fed wants to raise its benchmark rate slowly over the next several years, gradually reducing its long-running stimulus campaign to bring the economy back to good health. The Fed has held short-term rates near zero since December 2008.

美聯儲主席珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)曾表示，美聯儲要在未來幾年內慢慢提高基準利率，逐步取消其爲讓經濟恢復活力而長期執行的刺激政策。自2008年12月以來，美聯儲一直將短期利率保持在接近零的水平。

The Fed has repeatedly delayed the beginning of that process, as economic growth has fallen short of its expectations. But as recently as June, most members of the Fed’s leadership — 15 of the 17 senior officials — indicated they planned to start raising rates this year.

由於經濟增長一直沒有達到預期的水平，美聯儲一再推遲了提升利率程序的起點。但是，近在今年6月，美聯儲領導層的大多數成員，也就是17名官員中的15名錶示，他們打算今年開始加息。

That plan faced considerable skepticism even before the recent market downturn. Inflation has remained persistently sluggish since the Great Recession, even as job growth has strengthened. Some Fed officials cautioned that the central bank had not done enough to raise inflation toward its targeted 2 percent annual pace.

早在最近的市場低迷之前，就有不少人對這一計劃有相當大的懷疑。自從經濟大衰退(Great Recession)以來，雖然就業有所增長，但通貨膨脹率一直走低。一些美聯儲官員警告說，央行尚未採取足夠措施來實現把年度通貨膨脹率提高到2％的目標。

Recent events have heightened those misgivings. The decline of oil prices and China’s latest economic stimulus may further damp inflation. The fall of stock prices also reflects concern among some investors about the health of the domestic economy. The share of Americans without jobs remains unusually high and wage growth remains weak, problems that a premature rate increase could worsen.

最近的股市動盪加劇了這種懷疑。油價的下跌、以及中國最近採取的經濟刺激政策，可能會進一步降低通貨膨脹率。股票價格大跌也反映了部分投資者對美國國內經濟健康狀況的擔憂。沒有工作的美國人所佔的比例仍非常高，工資增長仍然疲弱，過早加息可能會讓這些問題惡化。

“A reasonable assessment of current conditions” suggests that a rate increase “in the near future would be a serious error that would threaten all three of the Fed’s major objectives — price stability, full employment and financial stability,” Lawrence H. Summers, a Harvard economist who served as President Obama’s chief economic adviser, wrote in an opinion piece in The Financial Times on Monday.

曾爲美國總統奧巴馬擔任首席經濟顧問的哈佛大學經濟學家勞倫斯·H·薩默斯(Lawrence H. Summers)週一在《金融時報》發表的一篇評論文章中寫道，“對當前狀況的合理評估”意味着，“在不久的將來”加息，“將會是一個嚴重的錯誤，將威脅到美聯儲的三個主要目標，即物價穩定、充分就業，以及金融穩定。”

In addition, the International Monetary Fund has expressed concern that the Fed, by raising rates, could increase pressure on developing economies.

此外，國際貨幣基金組織也曾擔心，美聯儲提高利率可能會讓發展中經濟體的壓力增加。

And the market’s decline helps mitigate worries that low interest rates encourage excessive speculation.

股市的下跌有助於緩解人們對低利率鼓勵過度投機的擔憂。

Against that backdrop, more investors are now concluding that the Fed will decide to wait a little longer before raising rates.

在此背景下，更多的投資者現在的結論是，美聯儲在加息之前將決定等待更長一點的時間。

Measures of expectations derived from asset prices have shifted sharply in recent days. The odds of a September rate increase, by one measure, fell by half, from about 48 percent last week to just 22 percent on Monday. Even more striking, the odds of a rate increase this year fell below 50 percent for the first time.

源於資產價格的預期估算在最近幾天裏有很大的變化。按一種算法，9月份加息的可能性降低了一半，從上週約48％的概率降至週一的22％。更引人注目的是，人們對今年加息概率的估算首次降到50％以下。

Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays, who had predicted a September lift until the recent stock market sell-off, said he now expected the Fed to wait until March.

巴克萊(Barclays)的美國市場首席經濟師邁克爾·加彭(Michael Gapen)曾預測9月份加息，那是在近期的股市拋售之前，他說他目前的預測是，美聯儲會等到明年三月。

“Although we continue to see economic activity in the U.S. as solid and justifying modest rate hikes, we believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to begin a hiking cycle in this environment for fear that such a move may further destabilize markets,” Mr. Gapen wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

“雖然我們繼續看到，美國的經濟活動相當不錯，有適度加息的理由，但我們認爲，出於對加息可能會進一步擾亂市場的擔憂，美聯儲不太可能在這種環境下開始加息的進程，”加彭週一在一份發給客戶的簡報中寫道。

Fed officials may reach a different conclusion, but the shift in expectations still poses a challenge because officials have said they want markets to be ready for an increase. By minimizing the element of surprise, they hope to minimize volatility.

美聯儲官員可能會有不同的想法，但預期的改變對他們來說仍是一個挑戰，因爲官員們曾表示，他們要讓市場對加息有所準備。他們希望通過減少突然的因素來儘量減少市場的波動。

If the Fed wants to convince investors that September is still on the table, time is running short. The most obvious opportunity comes this weekend, when central bankers will gather in Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming for an annual policy conference. The Fed’s vice chairman, Stanley Fischer, is scheduled to speak.

如果美聯儲希望說服投資者，九月份加息仍在日程之上的話，他們的時間不多了。最明顯的機會是這個週末，屆時央行行長們將在懷俄明州大提頓國家公園(Grand Teton National Park)舉行年度政策會議。美聯儲副主席斯坦利·費希爾(Stanley Fischer)已被安排發表講話。