油價繼續回升 逼近每桶50美元

The oil price moved closer to $50 a barrel for the first time since November, on growing supply disruptions in Nigeria and a more positive assessment of the market from Goldman Sachs, the most bearish of leading commodity banks.

油價自去年11月以來首次逼近每桶50美元，原因是尼日利亞供應中斷日趨嚴重，同時通常最悲觀的主要大宗商品交易銀行高盛(Goldman Sachs)對石油市場作出了更爲積極的評估。

Militant threats to pipelines in Nigeria, an important Opec producer, are the latest fillip for an oil price that has also benefited from a booming petrol market and rising demand in India.

尼日利亞是重要的歐佩克(OPEC)產油國，武裝分子對該國輸油管線的威脅給油價帶來最新提振；全球油價同時還受益於汽油市場需求旺盛和印度需求增長。

Anxiety over supply has also been fanned after Nicolás Maduro, Venezuelan president, announced plans on Friday to extend his government’s emergency powers — a reminder to investors of the deepening political instability in another Opec member.

令人對石油供應感到焦慮的另一個因素是，委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯•馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)上週五宣佈延長他領導的政府的緊急權力，這提醒投資者：還有一個歐佩克成員國的政治不穩定在日益加深。

Supply disruptions globally are likely to average more than 3m barrels a day this month, with Nigerian output at its lowest level in decades.

全球而言，本月的供應中斷可能達到每日平均300多萬桶，目前尼日利亞的產量處於幾十年來最低水平。

“Developments in Nigeria and the increasingly tense situation in Venezuela . . . make a breach of the $50 this week a strong possibility,” said David Hufton of PVM, an oil broker.

“尼日利亞的事態，加上委內瑞拉日益緊張的局勢……使得油價本週很有可能突破每桶50美元，”石油經紀商PVM的戴維•赫夫頓(David Hufton)表示。

Brent, the global crude benchmark, jumped more than 3 per cent to $49.47, a six-month high. Meanwhile West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, rose 3.2 per cent to $47.72.

全球原油基準布倫特(Brent)昨日一度躍升逾3%，至每桶49.47美元的六個月高位。同時美國油價基準西得克薩斯中質原油(WTI)一度上漲3.2%，至每桶47.72美元。

The spectre of diminished supply and strengthening demand was enough to prompt Goldman analysts to lift their forecast for WTI. They said the US benchmark would average $45 a barrel during the second quarter, up from an estimate of $35 in March.

供應減少和需求轉強的可能前景促使高盛分析師上調其對WTI價格的預測。他們表示，第二季度美國油價基準將達到每桶45美元的平均水平，高於3月估計的每桶35美元。

Brent has rallied more than 75 per cent since hitting a low for the year in late January, helped by supply disruptions and a conviction among investors that the market will rebalance this year as demand improves and high-cost producers curb output.

自1月下旬觸及今年低點以來，布倫特原油價格已經反彈逾75%，其推動因素一方面是供應中斷，另一方面是投資者深信：隨着需求出現起色，隨着高成本生產者減產，今年石油市場將實現再平衡。

Last week the International Energy Agency, one of the leading energy forecasters, said it was more likely to increase than to cut its demand growth forecast because of the booming global petrol market and India’s rising thirst for crude.

上週，領先的能源預測機構之一國際能源署(IEA)表示，它更有可能上調（而不是下調）需求增長預測，原因是全球汽油市場需求旺盛，而印度的原油需求不斷增長。

Goldman raised its global demand forecast by 200,000 barrels to 1.4bn yesterday, citing strong demand in India.

高盛昨日將全球需求增長預測上調每日20萬桶，至每日140萬桶，其理由也包括印度需求強勁。

But the bank was still cautious on the oil outlook, and warned that the market could move into surplus in the first quarter of 2017 because of rising supplies from low-cost Opec producers and fewer supply disruptions.

但該行仍對石油前景持謹慎態度，警告說，市場可能在2017年第一季度進入供應過剩狀態，原因包括低成本的歐佩克產油國增加供應和供應中斷較少。

It was possible oil would be trading at $45 a barrel in the first quarter of next year, the bank added.

該行補充說，明年第一季度油價有可能處於每桶45美元的水平。

Hedge funds and other money managers are growing more nervous about the oil price after the big rally from January lows. Last week they cut their net long position in WTI and Brent — the difference between bets on rising and falling prices — by 18m barrels to 218m.

繼油價從1月份的低谷大幅反彈後，對衝基金和其他資產經理正變得越來越緊張。上週他們削減WTI和布倫特原油淨多頭頭寸（押注價格上漲和價格下跌的頭寸之差）1800萬桶，至2.18億桶。

“Supply is resilient and still growing, particularly with the return of supply from Iran,” said Adam Longson, analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“供應頗有韌性，且仍在增長，特別是在伊朗恢復供應的情況下，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師亞當•朗森(Adam Longson)表示。

“The latest reports out of US producers are no better and suggest that US production is unlikely to fall as much as the currently low price environment would suggest.”

“來自美國生產商的最新報告也沒有傳遞更好的信號，這些報告似乎表明，美國的產量不太可能像眼下低價環境所暗示的那樣下降。”