油價反彈創年內新高 重回40美元上方

Oil jumped back above $40 a barrel yesterday for the first time this year and iron ore posted its biggest one-day gain on record as more traders bet that the worst of the 20-month commodity rout was over.

油價昨日反彈至每桶40美元上方，這是今年以來的第一次，同時鐵礦石價格出現有記錄以來的最大單日漲幅，越來越多的交易員們押注持續20個月的大宗商品低迷已度過最糟糕階段。

The slump in oil and other commodity prices had raised concerns for the health of the wider economy, with central banks warning of a possible deflationary spiral and a sharp slowdown in emerging market growth.

石油和其他大宗商品價格暴跌已引發了對整體經濟健康狀況的擔憂，一些央行警告可能出現通縮螺旋，同時新興市場增長大幅放緩。

But moves by some of the world’s largest oil producers to agree an output freeze have helped to put a floor under prices, with Brent crude rebounding by 50 per cent since mid-January.

但是，全球一些最大的產油國同意凍結產量之舉幫助設置了價格下限，布倫特原油(Brent crude)自1月中旬以來反彈50%。

The international oil benchmark gained 5.6 per cent to $40.96 a barrel — the highest since mid-December and with gains since mid-January reaching 50.4 per cent. It remains well below the near-$100-a-barrel level it averaged between 2010 and 2014.

這一國際油價基準昨日上漲5.6%，至每桶40.96美元，這是自12月中旬以來的最高點，自1月中旬以來的漲幅達到50.4%，但仍遠低於2010年至2014年期間每桶近100美元的平均水平。

Iron ore, one of the key commodities for many miners, rose almost 20 per cent to $62.60 a tonne — the biggest one-day rise since the index began in 2009.

鐵礦石是許多礦商的主要大宗商品之一，昨日上漲近20%，至每噸62.60美元，這是自2009年開始編制價格指數以來的最大單日漲幅。

Officials in China, the world’s largest importer of oil and metals, have vowed to avoid a hard landing as they try to move away from manufacturing and infrastructure spending towards a more service-based economy.

在全球最大石油和金屬進口國中國，官員們誓言要避免經濟硬着陸。中國正試圖推動經濟轉型，從依賴製造業和基礎設施支出轉向更多依賴於服務業。

While analysts caution that excess supplies in many commodity markets should continue to weigh on prices, the near-panic-level selling seen in January has abated. “I think that if we’re not at the bottom then we can’t be far off,” said Julian Kettle, head of metals at Wood Mackenzie. “People are starting to get far less negative about China.”

儘管分析師們告誡稱，許多大宗商品市場上的供應過剩將繼續令價格承壓，但是1月份出現的近乎恐慌的拋售已經消退。“我認爲，即使我們尚未觸底，我們也不可能距離谷底太遠，”諮詢公司Wood Mackenzie金屬部門主管的朱利安•凱特爾(Julian Kettle)表示。“人們對中國的負面情緒開始消散了。”

Natural resources stocks have been some of the biggest beneficiaries, with Glencore and Anglo American’s share price both almost doubling since the beginning of the year after being the worst performers on the FTSE 100 in 2015. They led gains alongside Chilean copper miner Antofagasta, which is up 75 per cent since January 20.

自然資源類股票屬於主要受益者之列，其中嘉能可(Glencore)和英美資源(Anglo American)在2015年淪爲富時100指數(FTSE 100)表現最差成份股之後，自今年初以來股價均上漲近一倍。這兩家礦商與智利銅礦公司Antofagasta領漲，後者的股票自1月20日以來上漲75%。

Copper, aluminium and zinc have all rallied by 10-25 per cent since January.

銅、鋁和鋅價自1月以來反彈10%至25%。

China will tackle overcapacity in its steel and coal sector, policymakers said at the annual meeting of the national legislature in Beijing at the weekend.

中國政策制定者上週末在北京舉行的全國人大年會上表示，中國將致力解決鋼鐵和煤炭行業的產能過剩。

Saudi Arabian officials are to meet Russian counterparts in coming weeks to see if the world’s top two oil exporters can lead other producers to freeze output, as many have seen their national budgets squeezed by the price collapse.

沙特阿拉伯官員將在未來幾週會晤俄羅斯官員，看看全球兩大石油出口國能否帶動其它產油國凍結產量，目前許多產油國的政府預算受到油價暴跌的擠壓。

Hedge funds have largely switched from betting against the oil price at the start of the year to positioning themselves for further gains, regulatory data show. US oil production has started to decline in the face of lower prices, though companies may keep output going if the price recovers further.

監管申報數據顯示，對衝基金已在很大程度上從今年初押注油價下跌轉向押注價格進一步上漲。面對油價低迷，美國石油產量已開始下降，但如果價格進一步復甦，企業可能會保持產量。

“We’ve seen a return of risk appetite,” said Michael Wittner, analyst at Société Générale. “[But] it’s going to be volatile and it’s not a slam dunk that prices keep going up from here in a straight line.”

“我們已經看到風險偏好迴歸，”法國興業銀行(Société Générale)分析師邁克爾•威特納(Michael Wittner)表示。“但是波動性將會較高，不能保證價格將從目前水平直線上升。”