摩根士丹利 油價可能跌至每桶20美元

Oil’s dismal start to the new year continued yesterday as prices plumbed fresh lows, with Morgan Stanley adding to a growing number of voices warning that prices could slide to $20 a barrel.

油價昨日延續新年的慘淡開局，價格越跌越低，同時摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)加入其他機構的行列，警告油價可能下滑至每桶20美元的水平。

Brent, the global oil marker, fell by more than $2, or 6 per cent, to $31.48 a barrel in late trading, a level last reached in April 2004. Across the Atlantic, meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, dropped more than 6 per cent to $30.97 a barrel, a fresh 12-year low.

全球油價基準布倫特(Brent)在尾盤時分下跌逾2美元，至每桶31.48美元，這是2004年4月以來未見的水平，單日跌幅達6%。在大西洋彼岸，美國油價基準西德克薩斯中質油(WTI)下跌逾6%，至每桶30.97美元，這是12年來的最低點。

The falls extended to 16 per cent a rout that had seen more than 10 per cent knocked off both benchmarks in the first trading week of 2016. “Oil in the $20s is possible,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longson in a report that focused on the possibility of China further devaluing its currency against the US dollar.

最新跌勢的累計跌幅已達到16%；上週是2016年首個交易周，其間兩個油價基準都下跌逾10%。“每桶20多美元的油價是有可能的，”摩根士丹利分析師亞當朗森(Adam Longson)在一份報告中表示；這份報告聚焦於中國讓人民幣兌美元匯率進一步走低的可能性。

A slowdown in China, whose growth led the rise in global oil demand over the past decade, in recent weeks has added fears of slowing consumption to massive oversupply, even after a 70 per cent price drop over the past 18 months.

中國經濟增長曾在過去10年裏帶動全球石油需求上升。近幾周，中國增長放緩使市場在擔心石油大幅供過於求之餘，又添加了對於消費增長減速（即便油價在過去18個月裏累計下跌了70%）的憂慮。

While efforts to further weaken China’s currency could help shore up its export-focused economy, it would make imports of oil and other dollar-priced commodities more expensive and would be likely to further hit demand.

儘管中國讓人民幣進一步貶值的努力可能有助於提振其出口拉動型經濟，但它將使進口石油及其他以美元計價的大宗商品更加昂貴，很可能會進一步抑制需求。

“[That] could lead to another round of commodity weakness and send oil into the $20s,” said Mr Longson in the report. “$20-$25 oil price scenarios are possible simply due to currency.’’ Banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have also predicted the oil overhang could push crude prices down to $20 levels but for different reasons. Some are concerned that storage tanks in the US could fill up and that prices will to have fall to levels that make it economic to hold oil on tankers at sea.

“（那）可能會導致新一輪的大宗商品價格弱勢，使油價跌至每桶20多美元的水平，”朗森在報告中表示。“僅僅是匯率因素就可能釀成油價跌至每桶20至25美元的情形。”其他銀行，如高盛(Goldman Sachs)、花旗集團(Citigroup)和美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)，也都已預測石油過剩可能把油價壓低至每桶20美元的水平，儘管它們分析的原因有所不同。有人擔心，美國的儲油罐可能填滿，迫使油價下降，最終使得在海上的油輪上儲存石油具有經濟可行性。

The proliferation of pessimistic views comes as excess supplies of oil show little sign of abating.

各種悲觀看法瀰漫之際，石油供應過剩沒有顯示出減弱跡象。

Prices averaged almost $100 a barrel between 2008 and 2014, fuelling a supply boom that the Opec producers’ group has countered by not cutting output, sparking a war of attrition. While a boon for motorists, the price rout has shredded the budgets of oil-producing countries and forced oil majors to slash thousands of jobs and shelved investment plans worth billions of dollars.

2008年至2014年期間平均達到每桶近100美元的油價，引發了一場供應熱潮，對此，石油輸出國組織（OPEC，中文簡稱“歐佩克”）堅持不減產，由此導致一場消耗戰。儘管這對車主是好消息，但油價低迷重創了產油國的預算，還迫使大型石油公司裁減數千職位，擱置鉅額投資計劃。

Hedge fund bets against the oil price are close to record levels, standing at the equivalent of almost 363m barrels in futures and options contracts on exchanges in New York and London.

對衝基金押注油價下跌的規模接近歷史最高水平，相關期貨和期權合約在紐約和倫敦的交易所相當於近3.63億桶。

But funds last week did raise long positions in the international benchmark Brent, even as they reduced them in WTI, suggesting some have been wrongfooted by the latest price fall.

但是，一些基金上週增加了國際基準布倫特的多頭頭寸，即便他們減少了美國基準西德克薩斯中質油的多頭頭寸，這似乎表明一些基金對近日的價格下跌措手不及。

BofA yesterday cut forecasts for crude oil prices for this year, pointing to excess supplies from Opec, China currency woes and already high inventories.

美銀昨日下調今年的原油價格預測，其理由包括歐佩克的過多供應、人民幣匯率弱勢，以及已經很高的庫存水平。

The investment bank cut its Brent price forecast from $50 a barrel to $46, and lowered its estimate for West Texas Intermediate from $48 a barrel to $45.

這家投資銀行將布倫特油價預測從每桶50美元下調至46美元，將西德克薩斯中質油價格預測從每桶48美元下調至45美元。

“We believe it is early to pick a bottom,” said BofA analysts, while Société Générale also cut its oil price estimates.

“我們相信現在預測價格谷底還爲時過早，”美銀分析師表示。與此同時，法國興業銀行(Société Générale)也下調了油價預期。