美油跌破50美元 全球金融市場不寒而慄

HOUSTON — Oil prices tumbled below $50 a barrel on Monday, spooking global financial markets and signaling that the remarkable 50 percent price drop since June was continuing this year and even quickening.

休斯頓——週一，石油價格跌至每桶50美元以下，這個消息令全球金融市場不寒而慄，而且意味着，自去年6月以來出現50%的驚人降幅後，油價下跌的趨勢今年將繼續，甚至可能加速。

The new drop in American and global benchmarks of more than 5 percent was accompanied by a series of reports of increased Middle Eastern oil exports; continuing increases in American production; and renewed worries about the declining economic fortunes of Europe.

美國和全球基準指數紛紛出現5%以上的跌幅的同時，一系列報告顯示，中東的石油出口出現增長；美國的石油產量不斷上升；對於歐洲經濟前景的擔憂再次浮現。

The plunge once again sent jitters through global markets. The Dow Jones industrial Average fell 331 points, or 1.86 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, a broader benchmark, fell 37.62 points, or 1.83 percent. And the Vix, a measure of market volatility that is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, leaped by around 12 percent.

石油價格的大幅下跌又一次讓全球市場陷入緊張。道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)下跌了331點，降幅1.86%，與此同時，範圍更廣的基準指數標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor's 500)下跌了37.62點，降幅1.83%。而評估市場波動率的VIX指數(Volatility Index)則上漲了約12%，該指數也被華爾街稱爲恐慌指數。

In response, investors sought safety in government bonds around the world. As bond prices rose, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.04 percent on Monday.

全球投資者因此紛紛從政府債券投資中尋求安全感。隨着國債價格的上漲，10年期國債收益率週一下跌到2.04%。

The decline in oil was not the only source of concern in the markets.

然而，油價下跌並非引發市場擔憂的唯一因素。

Worries about Greece’s ability to stay in the eurozone have reasserted themselves in recent days, for instance. The dollar continued its surge against the euro on Monday.

例如近日，對希臘能否繼續留在歐元區的擔憂再次突顯。週一，美元對歐元繼續大幅升值。

Still, as the oil price decline has continued, investors have increasingly seen it as a bad omen for the global economy. The drop may point to lower demand for oil and lower economic activity. And the decline suggests that policy makers have not managed to deal with the threat of deflation, or falling prices.

不過，隨着油價持續下跌，投資者越發認爲這是全球經濟的不祥之兆。油價下跌可能指向了石油需求的下降和經濟活動的萎縮。它也意味着決策者未能妥善應對通貨緊縮的威脅。

“There is certainly a deflationary mind-set in the market,” said Jim Vogel, a debt markets strategist for FTN Financial, “and as we enter 2015, it’s beginning to nag some people that there could be a deflationary component to the economy.”

“毫無疑問市場上存在着通縮思維，”FTN金融公司(FTN Financial)的債券市場分析師吉姆·沃格爾(Jim Vogel)說，“隨着2015年的到來，有些人已經開始擔憂，經濟中可能存在通縮元素。”

Leading the way is oil.

首當其衝的就是石油市場。

“It is a very shaky start for the oil market,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service. “The norm is a lot of money comes into commodity index funds at the beginning of the year, and that can create a market rally. Today, instead of new money coming into oil, you got some more old money going out of oil.”

“對於石油市場來說，這是一個非常不穩定的開局，”原油價格信息服務公司(Oil Price Information Service)的全球能源分析負責人湯姆·克洛扎(Tom Kloza)說。“正常的情況應該是，年初有大量資金進入大宗商品指數基金，並引發市場的上揚。但現在，非但沒有新的資金進入石油領域，還有更多舊資金撤出了石油市場。”

West Texas Intermediate crude, for example, dipped below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than five years, and Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell more than 6 percent, to under $53 a barrel.

例如，美國西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)下跌至每桶50美元以下，屬五年多以來的首次。而全球基準布倫特原油(Brent Crude)則下跌超過6%，至每桶53美元之下。

The drop in prices has led to a rising tide of oil company announcements in recent days of investment cuts for the coming months. Ensign Energy Services, a Canadian drilling contractor, reported that it would be laying off 700 workers, or roughly 10 percent of its work force, in California fields. Several Texas-based companies that have borrowed heavily in recent years to produce in new Texas and North Dakota shale fields are expected to announce steep investment and job cuts in the coming days.

由於油價下跌，越來越多的石油公司近日宣佈將在未來數月內削減投資。加拿大鑽井承包商恩賽因能源服務(Ensign Energy Services)稱，將在加州的油田裁掉700名工人，相當於員工總數的約10%。總部位於德克薩斯的多家企業最近幾年大規模舉債，爲的是在德克薩斯和北達科他州開發頁岩油田，預計它們未來幾日將宣佈大規模削減投資和裁員的決定。

Consumers continued to benefit from the oil price collapse, with the AAA auto club reporting on Monday that the average national price for regular gasoline had fallen to $2.20 a gallon, 8 cents lower than a week ago, 51 cents lower than a month ago, and $1.11 below a year ago. Energy experts say American families are likely to have as much as $115 billion more in disposable income in 2015 than last year because of lower gasoline prices alone. Additional benefits should come from drops in heating oil and diesel prices.

油價大幅下跌繼續讓消費者受益，AAA汽車俱樂部週一表示，全國普通汽油的平均價格下降到每加侖2.2美元，較一週前下跌8美分，較一個月前下跌51美分，較一年前下跌1.11美元。能源專家說，2015年，單是因爲汽油價格的下跌，美國家庭的可支配收入可能就比去年多出1150億美元。取暖油和柴油價格的下降應該也會令消費者受益。

The last time oil and gasoline prices fell this low was in the wake of the 2008-9 financial collapse, when crude oil fell from well over $100 to below $40 a barrel in a matter of months. Energy analysts say the current price slump is of an entirely different nature, based primarily on a glut of oil being produced in the United States, along with increased production in Canada, Iraq and a handful of other countries.

石油和汽油價格上次跌到這麼低的水平，還是在2008年至2009年的金融危機之後。當時，在數月時間裏，原油價格從每桶遠超100美元，跌至不足40美元。能源分析人士稱，當下的價格下跌在本質上截然不同，主要是因爲美國生產的石油供過於求，同時加拿大、伊拉克和其他幾個國家的產量也有所增加。

While in the past the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has sometimes agreed to cut back production to shore up prices, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf producers have decided to protect their global market share by cutting prices in the United States and Asian markets while increasing production somewhat.

在過去，石油輸出國組織(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)有時會同意削減產量以維持價格，但這一次，沙特阿拉伯和波斯灣的其他產油國決定保護自己的全球市場份額，方式是在美國和亞洲市場降價，並稍微增加一些產量。

In a recent interview with Middle East Petroleum and Economic Publications, based in Cyprus, the Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, indicated his country would remain steadfast rather than cut production anytime soon. “If I reduce, what happens to my market share?” Mr. Naimi said. “The price will go up and the Russians, the Brazilians, U.S. shale oil producers will take my share.”

最近接受總部位於塞浦路斯的中東石油和經濟出版公司(Middle East Petroleum and Economic Publications)的採訪時，沙特石油部長阿里·納伊米(Ali al-Naimi)表示，沙特的立場不變，不會在近期減產。“如果減產，我的市場份額怎麼辦？”納伊米說。“價格會上漲，俄羅斯、巴西和美國的頁岩油生產商會奪走我的份額。”

Adding further pressure to prices is the weakening demand for oil and petroleum products in Europe and developing nations. That weakness is compounded as increasingly efficient vehicles come onto the market and China seeks to reduce the oil dependency of its economy.

歐洲和發展中國家對石油及石油產品的需求日漸疲軟，致使價格進一步承壓。隨着越來越節能的車輛走向市場，並且中國尋求降低經濟對石油的依賴，這種疲軟的成因是多方面的。

There is little reason to believe any of those trends will change until midyear at the earliest, energy experts say. According to Simmons & Company, based in Houston, the 93 million-barrel-a-day global market will continue to be oversupplied by at least one million barrels a day during the first half of 2015.

能源專家表示，無論怎麼看，這些趨勢中的任何一個，都至少要到下半年纔可能出現變化。總部位於休斯頓的西蒙斯公司(Simmons & Company)表示，2015年上半年，全球市場每天的需求量爲9300萬桶，供應量依然至少會多出100萬桶。

“It might be the dead of winter, but it looks as though markets will confront considerably more downside risk in the months ahead,” according to a Citi Research report released Sunday night, “and it will likely take well into the year before prices will bottom, let alone achieve a new equilibrium.”

“可能是嚴冬，但看上去在未來幾個月裏，市場似乎將面臨更不利的風險，”花旗研究(Citi Research)週日夜間發佈的一份報告說。“可能要過相當長一段時間，價格纔會觸底，更別說達到一個新的平衡了。”

Citi says it is most probable that the oil market will stabilize by the end of 2015, with the Brent price averaging $63 a barrel for the year — several dollars above the current price. But its more bearish forecast, with a 30 percent probability, is for Brent to average $55 for the year, roughly the current price.

花旗研究表示，最可能出現的情況是，石油市場到2015年年底纔會穩定下來，布倫特原油價格的平均水平爲63美元，比眼下的價格高出幾美元。但該機構還有一個更不看好行情的預測，認爲有30%的可能性是，布倫特原油價格的全年均值將爲55美元，與當前的價格大致持平。

A number of signs suggest that oil and oil product supplies will soon be increasing. The ramping up of several refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is likely to increase exports of products like gasoline and diesel by 500,000 barrels a day in the coming months. Even without the Keystone XL pipeline, other Canadian pipelines coming online will bring as much as 350,000 more barrels onto the market.

大量跡象表明，石油和石油產品供應很快將會增加。未來幾個月，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合酋長國幾處煉油廠產量的增加，可能會導致汽油和柴油等產品的日出口量增加50萬桶。即使沒有Keystone XL輸油管道，加拿大即將上線的其他管道也會讓市場供應增加多達35萬桶油。

Citi has projected that global investments in oil exploration and production will decline up to 15 percent this year, but American companies continue to produce more efficiently. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian global consulting firm, issued a report on Monday saying that the average break-even price for the principal shale fields in the United States had dropped to $58 a barrel, with the core areas of some fields remaining economical to produce at $50.

花旗預測，今年全球對石油勘探和生產的投資最高可能會減少15%，不過美國公司的生產效率還會繼續提高。挪威國際諮詢公司里斯塔能源(Rystad Energy)週一發佈報告稱，美國主要頁岩油田的平均保本價已跌至每桶58美元，部分油田的核心區域即使保持50美元的生產價，也依然是划算的。

Oil-producing states are expected to suffer economically from the oil price drop, although the top oil-producing state, Texas, has worked hard to diversify its economy after the price bust of the 1980s. With a projected $3.5 billion budget deficit, Alaska has already announced a delay in six important infrastructure projects, including a gas pipeline from the North Slope.

產油州預計會因油價下跌而蒙受經濟損失，儘管經歷了上世紀80年代的油價疲軟後，最大的產油州德克薩斯州已努力讓經濟多元化。預計會面臨35億美元財政赤字的阿拉斯加，已經宣佈推遲六個重要的基礎設施項目，其中包括一條從北坡油田開始的天然氣管道。