把問題化作亂麻的債轉股

One of the Chinese government’s emerging strategies for dealing with problem loans in the banking sector is a debt-for-equity programme — under which banks would write off struggling companies’ debts in return for taking equity stakes in them.

在中國政府應對銀行業不良貸款的策略中，有一種是債轉股計劃。按照這種辦法，銀行會減記深陷困境的企業的債務，換取這些企業的股份。

However, many analysts object to this plan, which state media have reported will initially involve up to Rmb1tn ($154bn) in problem loans. Past bank crises, they say, have shown that lenders should write off non-performing assets immediately, or pass them on to specially created “bad bank” vehicles. Delaying the inevitable simply incurs more pain at a later date.

然而，許多分析師反對這一計劃。據官方媒體報道，該計劃最初將涉及最高1萬億元人民幣（合1540億美元）的不良貸款。對此，分析師表示，以往的銀行危機證明，銀行應馬上減記不良資產，或將它們轉移給專門成立的“壞賬銀行”。拖延無法迴避的事，只會在以後招致更多痛苦。

As proposed, Beijing’s debt-for-equity programme instead doubles down on the adage that if you owe your banker a thousand bucks you are a debtor, but if you owe him a million you are his partner.

按照擬議中的方案，中國政府的債轉股計劃實際上驗證了那句諺語：如果你欠一位銀行家1000塊錢，你是他的債務人；但如果你欠他100萬，你是他的合夥人。

Take the first, and so far only, large-scale debt-for-equity swap to be presented to investors in detail. Stripped of legalese and circumlocutions, Huarong Energy’s statements to the Hong Kong stock exchange about a proposed Rmb17bn transaction with 22 bank creditors — and more than 1,000 supplier creditors — provide a fascinating insight into how messy these transactions can become.

考慮一下即將向投資者展示細節的首個大規模債轉股置換交易——也是迄今唯一的一個。這一擬議中的交易規模爲170億元人民幣，交易雙方一方是華榮能源(Huarong Energy)，另一方是22家銀行債權人和逾1000家供應商債權人。在剔除種種法律術語和冗詞贅語之後，華榮能源提交給香港交易所(HKEx)的聲明提供了引人入勝的視角，讓人們一瞥這類交易可能達到的凌亂程度。

Huarong, whose primary assets are oilfields in Kyrgyzstan’s volatile Fergana valley, began life as China Rongsheng Heavy Industries, a private-sector shipbuilder. Chinese shipbuilders were the first casualties of the slowing domestic economy and the global shipping glut.

華榮的主要資產是位於動盪的吉爾吉斯斯坦費爾幹納盆地的幾個油田。該集團的前身是民營造船廠中國熔盛重工(China Rongsheng Heavy Industries)。中國的造船廠是國內經濟放緩和全球航運業供過於求的首批犧牲品。

As Huarong has told its investors, its shipbuilding business is, to all intents and purposes, a zombie operation. “Except for the continuous efforts in collecting outstanding receivables and realising existing inventories through sale, the operation of the group’s shipbuilding business has been minimal,” it has said.

正如華榮告訴投資者的，其造船業務實際上已淪爲殭屍業務。該集團表示：“雖然本集團仍在努力不懈地透過收回未償付應收款項及出售變賣現有存貨，本集團造船業務的經營一直處於相當低的水平。”

Huarong announced its reincarnation as a Central Asian energy company in 2014, the year the price of crude plummeted from $115 a barrel to less than $50.

2014年，華榮曾宣佈轉型爲一家中亞能源企業。就在那一年，原油價格從每桶115美元暴跌至不到50美元。

It was the corporate strategy equivalent of a Hail Mary pass in American football. Unfortunately for Huarong and its long-suffering creditors and shareholders, it was simply too late — and too desperate — a reinvention to save the company.

這是美國橄欖球中“萬福瑪莉亞傳球”（Hail Mary pass，絕望之下使用、成功率極低的長傳——譯者注）的企業戰略版。不幸的是，對華榮及其長期被套的債權人和股東來說，作爲拯救企業的改造計劃，這一轉型來得太晚，希望太過渺茫。

By June 2015 the group was saddled with shipbuilding-related borrowings of Rmb22.4bn, of which Rmb17.9bn had to be repaid within a year. But rather than bow to the inevitable, Huarong begged 22 banks to which it owed Rmb14bn to cancel its debts in exchange for shares.

截至2015年6月，該集團與造船相關的貸款達224億元人民幣，其中179億元人民幣必須在一年內償還。然而，華榮並未順應不可迴避的趨勢，而是請求被其欠款140億元人民幣的22家銀行取消其債務，換取華榮的股份。

If all goes according to plan, the bank creditors — which have not been formally identified but are reportedly led by one of China’s “big four” state lenders — will end up with more than 70 per cent of the company, with supplier creditors holding 15 per cent and existing shareholders 13 per cent.

如果一切按計劃進行，這些銀行債權人最終將持有該公司70%以上的股份，供應商債權人將持有15%，現有股東將持有13%。華榮的銀行債權人身份並未正式公開，不過有報道稱，爲首的銀行是中國四大國有銀行之一。

As one analyst critical of debt-for-equity deals asks: “What do Chinese banks know about oilfield services? And if a big private company can get this sort of treatment, imagine what state-owned enterprises are going to get.”

正如一位對債轉股交易持批評態度的分析師所問的：“中國各銀行對油田服務有何瞭解？如果連大型民營企業都能獲得如此待遇，想象一下國有企業會怎樣。”

So far 12 bank creditors owed Rmb12.9bn have provisionally agreed to the swap. Huarong’s supplier creditors, however, who are owed Rmb3bn in total, are proving more reluctant. As of March creditors holding just Rmb323m, or 11 per cent, of Huarong’s IOUs were willing to accept shares in lieu of repayment.

到目前爲止，已有被欠款129億元人民幣的12家銀行債權人初步同意了債轉股置換交易。然而，總計被欠款30億元人民幣的供應商債權人被證明不太情願。截至3月份，在持有華榮借條的債權人中，只有被欠款3.23億元人民幣的供應商債權人願意接受用股份代替償債，比例爲11%。