貨幣戰真的休戰了 Has truce been declared in the currency wars

Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman could not have been more sniffy about the idea of a currency wars truce being declared by the world’s main central banks.

有觀點認爲世界各主要央行宣佈了“貨幣戰”休戰，布朗兄弟哈里曼(Brown Brothers Harriman)的馬克•錢德勒(Marc Chandler)對此嗤之以鼻。

“First, a war is imagined and then an imaginary truce is declared. Really?” tweeted the FX analyst.

這位外匯分析師在Twitter上發文稱：“首先，戰爭是想象的，接着想象中的休戰聲明宣佈了。這是事實嗎？”

Real or imagined, currency wars and competitive devaluations have been the staple conversation of the FX market for decades, most recently fuelled by the successive monetary easing programmes of the central banks of the US, Japan and Europe.

無論是真的還是想象的，貨幣戰和競爭性貶值幾十年來一直是外匯市場的主要話題，最近則是由美國、日本和歐洲央行接二連三的貨幣寬鬆計劃引發。

Low and negative interest rates are seen as devaluing currencies, thereby helping spur higher inflation and firmer growth. The trouble with this approach is that, in the case of Japan and Europe, their respective currencies have been strengthening of late.

人們認爲低利率和負利率令貨幣貶值，從而有助於刺激通脹和經濟增長。這種做法的問題在於，就日本和歐洲而言，它們的貨幣最近反而一直都在升值。

Now, the hubbub is all about whether last month’s G20 meeting in Shanghai, where leaders spoke about the need to refrain from currency competitiveness, marked an agreement to stabilise FX movements for the sake of calming a market turning over trillions of dollars each day.

如今沸沸揚揚的話題是，上月在上海召開的20國集團(G20)會議，是否標誌着各方爲了安撫日交易量達數萬億美元的外匯市場，而達成了穩定外匯走勢的協議。各國領導人在會議上談及有必要抑制貨幣競爭性貶值。

For doubters such as Mr Chandler, those peddling the idea have looked at a sequence of surprise central bank decisions and constructed the only plausible theory to explain them all: they must be working in cahoots. That would be some achievement because currency wars (if you believe they exist) are long, bloody and complicated.

對錢德勒等懷疑者來說，那些宣揚“休戰”觀點的人看到了一系列令人意外的央行決定，並構建出唯一貌似合理的理論來解釋這一切：他們必定是合謀行動。這將是某種成就，因爲貨幣戰（如果你相信它們存在）漫長、血腥而且複雜。

“There’s a ‘so what?’ about all of this,” says Simon Derrick, FX strategist at BNY Mellon. “Over the last 12-13 years, intervention hasn’t proved to have achieved a great deal.”

紐約梅隆銀行(BNY Mellon)的外匯策略師西蒙•德里克(Simon Derrick)表示：“對於這一切，你可以說‘那又怎樣？’。在過去十二三年裏，事實已經證明干預沒有多大效果。”

Yet as Mr Derrick acknowledges, in the world of FX “it’s every man for himself”. One country’s actions have currency consequences for another. That would be true in normal times. It is magnified in a climate of low growth, sliding inflation, high debt and meagre productivity.

然而正如德里克也承認的那樣，在外匯世界，“人人爲己”。一國的舉措對另一國的貨幣產生影響。在正常時期是這樣。在低增長、通脹下滑、高負債和生產率低下的環境下，影響更是被放大。

If you truly believe a currency truce has been declared, you should be worried how quickly it might fall apart.

如果你真的相信宣佈了貨幣戰休戰協議，你應該擔心該協議多快會崩潰。

The Federal Reserve got the conspiracy theorists excited after a surprisingly dovish March meeting, seemingly bypassing its reliance on data-dependence. This came after the dollar had fallen in recent weeks, in turn bolstering commodity prices and sentiment for emerging markets.

美聯儲(Fed)在3月議息會議上令人意外地發表鴿派言論，似乎放棄了對數據的依賴，這讓陰謀論者變得興奮起來。在這之前的數週，美元貶值，進而提振了大宗商品價格和對新興市場的情緒。

The Fed may have good reason to pause. Market turmoil is seen by some as making it more difficult to raise rates. Stephen Jen, a fund manager, says the Fed has become “not really ‘data-dependent,’ but rather ‘market-dependent’”.

美聯儲可能有很好的理由暫停加息。一些人認爲市場動盪讓加息變得更加困難。基金經理任永力(Stephen Jen)表示，美聯儲已變得“不是真正‘依靠數據’，而是‘依靠市場’”。

Yet most commentators coalesce around the idea that, currency truce or not, the Fed’s dovishness may provide some breathing room for markets.

然而大多數評論員都認同一個觀點，即無論是不是貨幣戰休戰，美聯儲的鴿派立場都可能爲市場提供一些喘息空間。

“Maybe the Fed has backed off on [rates normalisation] policy as that was the best way of easing tension in the global system,” says Mr Derrick. “That might take pressure off China outflows and bolster the oil price.”

德里克表示：“或許美聯儲放棄了（利率正常化）政策，因爲這是緩和全球體系中緊張形勢的最佳方式。這可能減輕中國資本外流壓力並提振油價。”

Time is perhaps global central banks’ only useful weapon. There are numerous explanations for why Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, allowed the euro to strengthen by putting a floor under further rate cuts for the foreseeable future.

時間或許是全球各大央行唯一有用的武器。歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)劃定了在可預見的未來進一步降息的下限，從而讓歐元走強，他爲何這麼做，市場有許多解讀。

Analysts at HSBC — firm adherents to the currency truce theory — say the ECB has “given up the fight to continually engineer higher inflation through a weaker exchange rate”.

匯豐(HSBC)的分析師是貨幣戰休戰論的忠實擁躉，他們表示，歐洲央行“放棄了通過貨幣貶值來持續刺激通脹的戰鬥”。

At BNP Paribas, however, Michael Sneyd, a FX strategist, believes time will come to the ECB’s rescue, arguing that a short-term rise in the euro will reverse in the second half of the year as the ECB’s recharged bond-buying programme takes effect.

然而，法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)的外匯策略師邁克爾•斯尼德(Michael Sneyd)相信，時間將拯救歐洲央行，並表示，隨着歐洲央行擴容的債券購買計劃生效，歐元短期上漲的勢頭將在今年下半年反轉。

Time is short in Japan, however, where the temptation must be to get back on the currency intervention habit. That it has refrained from doing so merely fuels the FX truce argument. After all, the country is just one really big yen surge away from falling off the wagon.

但留給日本的時間不多，因此重拾干預匯率習慣的誘惑一定很大。而日本沒有這樣做，這更是推動了貨幣戰休戰論。畢竟，日本只要再經歷一次日元的真正大幅升值，就會忍不住重新干預匯率了。

On balance, say analysts, it can probably resist the temptation for now: at the G20, Japan was left in no doubt that its concerns over yen strength were not shared around the table. It knows how a currency war works and how easily intervention could start one.

分析師表示，總的來說，日本目前很可能抵制住這種誘惑：在G20會議上，日本確定無疑地認識到，其對日元走強的擔憂並非會議桌上各方的共同擔憂。日本知道貨幣戰如何才能奏效，以及用干預匯率發動一場貨幣戰多麼容易。

“There is a risk of a currency war, but it is difficult to imagine in this present situation due to the G20’s commitment not to target FX rate for competitive purposes and their strong concern on currency manipulation,” says Junya Tanase, a JPMorgan FX strategist.

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)外匯策略師Junya Tanase表示：“目前存在爆發貨幣戰的風險，但在當前形勢下很難想象，因爲G20承諾不以競爭性目的來盯住匯率，而且各國都對匯率操縱表示強烈關注。”

China, too, can use time in its currency battle against market speculators. Military strategists joke that no battle plan ever withstood contact with the enemy. Those investors who began this year selling the renminbi might agree after what looked like winning trades soured as the People’s Bank of China unleashed its armoury.

中國也可以在貨幣戰中用時間來打擊市場投機者。軍事戰略家們笑稱，沒有任何作戰計劃能經受住與敵人的接觸。在中國央行打開武器庫使得曾經看似獲利的交易變得無利可圖之後，今年開始出售人民幣的投資者或許會表示認同。

Ensuing skirmishes have left both sides in an uneasy stand-off. In January, the offshore renminbi weakened sharply against the dollar as investors bet that capital flight from China would intensify — encouraged by the signals sent by the weaker offshore rate — and that the PBoC would be unable to burn through its reserves to limit the damage, for long.

隨後的較量讓雙方陷入了不安的僵局中。今年1月，離岸人民幣兌美元匯率大幅下跌，因爲投資者押注，在走弱的離岸匯率發出的信號推動下，中國資本外逃將加劇，而且中國央行無法長久地通過動用外匯儲備來遏制人民幣貶值。

Instead, the PBoC intervened directly in the offshore market, reducing liquidity in the process and increasing the pain for anyone positioned against it. Anecdotal reports also suggest there has been some degree of clampdown on flows offshore, curbing the ability for any flight, too.

相反，中國央行直接干預離岸市場，以減少流動性，增大做空人民幣的成本。坊間傳聞還暗示，存在一定程度對流向離岸市場的資金流的打壓，以抑制資本外逃的能力。

The result has been a collapse in the spread between the tightly controlled onshore rate and its battered offshore cousin, implying the renminbi bears have retreated for now, at least.

結果是受嚴格控制的在岸匯率與受重創的離岸匯率之間的匯差急劇縮小，這意味着人民幣空頭至少目前已經撤退。

But if central banks have bought themselves time, how long will it last? And what happens if, or when, US data pick up?

但如果說各大央行爲自己爭取到了時間，又能堅持多久呢？如果美國經濟數據改善，或者當美國經濟數據改善，會發生什麼？

As Paul Lambert at Insight Investment says, while dollar weakness creates opportunities for investing in EM FX, there won’t be much conviction behind the move.

正如Insight Investment的保羅•蘭伯特(Paul Lambert)所言，雖然美元走弱爲投資新興市場外匯創造了機會，但此舉背後不會有太多的信心。

That much is clear from the way the dollar has oscillated this month — strengthening in the run-up to the Fed meeting, weakening in response to its dovish tone, then firming again as Fed members undercut the cautious tone with a series of hawkish speeches.

這種信心不足從美元本月的振盪表現就可以清楚看出——在美聯儲會議前走強，又因爲美聯儲會議的鴿派論調走弱，然後又隨着美聯儲委員一系列鷹派演講削弱謹慎論調而再次走強。

EM FX has moved inversely, showing how shackled it has become to dollar moves. On the back of recent dollar strength, China allowed the renminbi to record its biggest percentage drop since the first week of January.

新興市場外匯呈現相反走勢，表明其在很大程度上受到美元走勢的束縛。緊跟着近期美元走強，中國讓人民幣錄得1月首周以來的最大百分比跌幅。

“If the data keeps on getting better, the Fed can’t stay forever in this dovish place,” says Mr Lambert. “There might be a tradeable improvement in risk currencies, but there isn’t going to be a sustained improvement. The dollar is going to have a soft patch, but the dollar is not going to trade lower.”

“如果美國經濟數據繼續改善，美聯儲不會永遠保持鴿派立場，”蘭伯特說，“風險貨幣可能會回升，出現一些交易機會，但不會持續回升。美元將進入平穩走勢，但不會貶值。”

For Shinzo Abe, prime minister, with the yen still resolutely firmer than the Y115/$ level Japan was expected to defend to the hilt, the temptations to re-engage on the FX battlefield are everywhere.

由於日元仍牢牢強於日本本來要盡全力捍衛的1美元兌115日元的水平，對於日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)來說，處處都是重新進入外匯戰場的誘惑。

His Abenomics growth programme is running low on firepower, has made almost no new converts in 2016, and is yielding ground in key areas suh as so-called womenomics and wage inflation. International investors have fled Japanese stocks this year, and show little inclination to lay any further bets on a market whose three-year bull run was so clearly policy-driven.

他的安倍經濟學增長計劃已經火力不足，2016年幾乎沒作出任何新的轉變，而且在所謂的女性經濟和工資上漲等關鍵領域也節節敗退。國際投資者今年已開始逃離日本股市，對於過去三年的牛市明顯受政策驅動的日本股市，他們幾乎沒有顯示出進一步投資的意向。

On top of that, Mr Abe has other issues scratching away at the Abenomics shrine and turning yen strength into a liability. It is too early, say analysts, to declare the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy a success or failure.

最重要的是，安倍還面臨其他問題在動搖他的“安倍經濟學神社”，並將日元的強勢變成一個累贅。分析師表示，現在談日本央行(BoJ)負利率政策成功與否還爲時過早。

But the move has generated confusion and unintended consequences — precisely the recipe for currency turmoil and, potentially, the circumstances where Japan would leap in to “smooth” the movement of the yen.

但此舉已造成混亂，產生了意外後果，這恰恰會導致貨幣動盪，而且可能造成一種形勢，迫使日本匆忙“平息”日元波動。

Mr Abe cannot afford further yen strengthening. In the weeks that followed the negative rate announcement — a move widely judged to be an attempt by the BoJ to remind markets of its “all-in” resolve to support Abenomics and to hold the yen below Y115/$ — the yen challenged the Y110/$ level in spite of heavy asset outflows as foreign investors fled and domestic funds sought higher yields overseas.

安倍無法承擔日元進一步走強的後果。人們普遍認爲負利率政策是日本央行試圖提醒市場，自己“全心全意”決心支持安倍經濟學，並將日元維持在弱於1美元兌115日元的水平。但在該政策公佈後的幾周內，儘管外國投資者逃離日本，同時國內資金到海外尋求更高收益，導致大量資產外流，日元仍挑戰了1美元兌110日元的水平。

For its part, China cannot keep the bears away forever. Sales desks report that short positions have been cut sharply from their extreme levels in January, but caution many investors still hold trades designed to benefit from a weaker renminbi “just in case,” although few are clear about what might end the current detente.

就中國而言，它本身不能永遠抑制空頭。金融機構銷售部門報告稱，空頭頭寸比1月極端水平大幅削減，但警告許多投資者仍持有“萬一”人民幣走弱便可從中獲益的頭寸，儘管幾乎沒人知道什麼能結束目前人民幣跌勢的緩和。

“It may not be a core conviction trade, but you want to be positioned in case there is a move,” says one bank sales desk head. “In January, it felt like the China depreciation story was maxed out across the board in terms of all the pricing points — volatility, skew, forwards, the lot.”

一位銀行銷售部門主管表示：“這可能不是一種核心的確信交易，但你希望有所準備以防人民幣下跌。1月時，從波動性、偏度、遠期等所有定價點來看，感覺到處充斥着人民幣貶值的消息。”

The shorts are not giving in publicly, either. In a recent note to investors, Crispin Odey, the outspoken UK-based hedge fund manager, told investors he was still convinced the currency had further to go, given China’s need to write off trillions in debt and refinance the entire banking system.

空頭也沒有公開屈服。坦率的英國對衝基金經理克里斯平•奧迪(Crispin Odey)最近向投資者表示，他仍然堅信人民幣會進一步下跌，因爲中國需要減記數萬億元人民幣的債務併爲整個銀行體系再融資。

“You cannot do all that without interest rates at almost zero and a weak exchange rate,” he concluded.

他總結道：“如果沒有接近於零的利率和疲軟的匯率，你不可能做到這一切。”

Most analysts too are holding to their year-end forecasts, expecting the renminbi to fall as far as Rmb6.9 against the dollar.

多數分析師也都堅持自己的年終預測，預計人民幣將下跌到1美元兌6.9元人民幣。

Mr Chandler may be right to scoff at the idea of a currency truce. But currency wars feel very real for many central banks.

錢德勒對貨幣戰休戰論嗤之以鼻，他可能是對的。但許多央行感到貨幣戰非常真實。

At least Mr Draghi is one central banker who may have packed up his armour and fled the battle as the euro sits around $1.12. The broad conclusion drawn by Mr Derrick is that currency wars have served the ECB well enough over recent years, as the ECB talked up and then unveiled its quantitative easing programme, weakening the euro by a third from May 2014 to March 2015.

至少，隨着歐元徘徊在1歐元兌1.12美元上下，德拉吉就是可能已收起盔甲逃離戰場的央行行長之一。德里克總體認爲，過去幾年歐洲央行的貨幣戰打得非常好，它先是放出風聲，然後公佈量化寬鬆計劃，使歐元從2014年5月到2015年3月貶值了三分之一。

“Would they be that unhappy if it was back at $1.17? Probably not,” says Mr Derrick.

德里克說：“如果重返1歐元兌1.17美元，他們會那麼不高興嗎？可能不會。”