如果美國也推行負利率 Negative US interest rates take banks through the looking glass大綱

A few days ago, I attended a financial conference with a large collection of some of the most powerful and savvy asset managers in America. When asked to vote about the likely path of US interest rates, almost two-thirds of the participants suggested that the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year, rather than keep them neutral (or raise them).

幾天前，我與美國一些最有影響力且最精明的資產經理們一道參加了一個金融會議。在被要求就美國利率的可能走勢發表意見時，近三分之二的與會者認爲，美聯儲(Fed)今年將降息，而不是讓利率保持不升不降（或者加息）。

Yes, you read that right. Less than two months ago, the Fed finally embarked on its long-awaited (and heralded) tightening move. It then signalled that it expected to see four rate rises this year. While investors did not entirely accept this, the Fed Funds futures market suggested that two, not four, rises were likely in 2016.

是的，你沒看錯。不到兩個月前，美聯儲終於啓動了拖延已久（而且預熱已久）的加息舉措。接着，美聯儲暗示，預計今年將加息4次。儘管投資者並不完全認同，但聯邦基金期貨(Fed Funds futures)市場暗示，今年美聯儲可能會加息兩次，而非4次。

But if the group of investors I saw was representative (and I think they are), a US rate cut is now the majority view. Talk about a mood swing; this makes a teenager look consistent.

然而，如果我在會議上見到的這些投資者具有代表性的話（我認爲他們有），那麼如今的主流觀點是美國將降息。瞧這情緒變化得多快，青春期的少男少女也只能自嘆弗如。

Is this justified? In economic terms, I would argue not. After all, the fundamental US economic data have not moved so wildly in recent weeks. On the contrary, as Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, pointed out in testimony to Congress on Wednesday, growth is still fairly steady and the wider global picture is far from disastrous. Unsurprisingly, she emphasised that she still thinks that rates are on a modest upward trend.

這種觀點有道理嗎？從經濟的角度來看，我認爲沒有。畢竟，最近數週，美國的基本經濟數據沒有出現如此離譜的變動。相反，正如美聯儲主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)上週三在美國國會作證時指出的那樣，增長仍相當穩定，全球整體狀況遠算不上災難性。毫不意外的是，她明確表示，她仍認爲利率處於微幅上行趨勢。

But what is also clear is that this swing in views does not just reflect macroeconomic signals. On the contrary, subtle shifts in global capital flows are creating volatility. Moreover, market sentiment is now displaying what billionaire investor and philanthropist George Soros has described as “reflexivity” — prices fall, so people get frightened, and then prices fall further.

但同樣明顯的是，投資者對美國利率走勢看法的180度大轉彎反映的不僅僅是宏觀經濟信號。相反，全球資金流動的微妙變化正引發波動。另外，市場情緒正在體現出喬治∠坽斯（George Soros，億萬富翁、投資人、慈善家）所說的“反射作用”：價格下跌，人們感到害怕，接着價格進一步下跌。

Behind all this is a debate about whether the US could soon follow Japan and Switzerland and produce negative interest rates.

在所有這一切背後是這樣一場辯論：美國是否可能很快效仿日本和瑞士推行負利率？

That used to be the stuff of late night bar-room chats between economists. But the fact that Japan has moved into negative territory (after Switzerland) has changed all that. Another development has also had an enormous symbolic effect: the Fed has just launched its annual stress test of the banks, and asked the largest ones to model for the first time how their balance sheets could look with negative rates. (Specifically, they have been asked to model an “adverse market scenario” where three-month treasury bills tumbled to minus 0.5 per cent for a long period.)

這曾經是經濟學家們深夜在酒吧閒聊時的話題。但日本（繼瑞士之後）已推行負利率政策，這改變了一切。另一項具有重大象徵意義的動向也產生了巨大影響：美聯儲剛剛啓動了針對銀行的年度壓力測試，並首次要求規模最大的那些銀行建模演示負利率可能會給它們的資產負債表帶來何種影響。（特別是，這些銀行被要求就“負面市場情境”構建模型，在這種情境下，3個月期國債收益率長期降至-0.5%。）

The Fed has stressed that this is “hypothetical”. And it is not an entirely unprecedented idea: short-term rates have tumbled briefly below zero in the US before. No matter. The symbolism of this in the Wall Street echo chamber is extraordinarily powerful: what was once almost unimaginable is actually being imagined — and tangibly measured. And this is frightening for investors for at least two reasons.

美聯儲強調，這是一種“假設”。這並非一種從未有過的想法：美國短期利率以前曾短暫降至零以下。沒關係。在人云亦云如一個“迴音室”的華爾街，這種象徵意義引起的反響特別強烈：曾經幾乎不可想象的事情如今真的在被考慮，並正得到實實在在的衡量。這讓投資者感到害怕，原因至少有兩個。

First, and most obviously, a world with rates below zero is one in which normal economic relationships are apt to break down. In such a world, it feels as if all manner of taboos might tumble, so it is hard to set mental boundaries.

首先，也是最爲明顯的原因是，在負利率情況下，正常的經濟關係容易失效。在這種情況下，似乎所有的禁忌都可能打破，因此很難在心理上設定限度。

Until recently, it was widely assumed among investors that even if central banks did cut rates, these could not fall below minus one per cent. But this week JPMorgan issued a piece of research which suggests that central banks now have the technical tools to cut rates to minus 4.5 per cent in the eurozone, minus 3.45 per cent in Japan, minus 2.7 per cent in the UK and minus 1.3 per cent in the US. But nobody knows any more if even that (unlikely) scenario is the floor.

直到不久前，投資者曾廣泛認爲，即便央行真的降息，也不可能低於-1%。但上週，摩根大通(JPMorgan)發表一份研究報告稱，央行現在具備技術手段，能夠將歐元區利率降至-4.5%，日本利率降至-3.45%，英國利率降至-2.7%，美國利率降至-1.3%。但沒有人知道，這種（不太可能出現的）情況是否就是底部。

Secondly, as investors confront this bewildering Alice in Wonderland world, they are also discovering great “known unknowns” in the system: nobody knows what this means for banks. Or as the Bank of America Merrill Lynch observed: “Modelling the negative rate scenario is extraordinarily difficult … [since] predicting how Libor would behave in a negative environment is a difficult question.”

其次，在投資者面臨這個令人迷惑的“愛麗絲仙境”之際，他們也發現了這個系統中重要的“已知的未知情況”：沒有人知道這對銀行業意味着什麼。或者就像美國銀行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)所說的那樣：“繪製負利率情境模型特別困難……（因爲）預測倫敦銀行間同業拆借利率(Libor)在負利率環境下會如何表現是一個難題。”

The good news is that investors may eventually adapt; the idea of negative rates in Switzerland, for example, no longer shocks. The bad news, however, is that this could take a long time. And the path of the underlying economic data looks dangerously patchy.

好消息是投資者可能最終會適應；例如，瑞士的利率爲負不再是令人震驚的想法。然而，壞消息是，他們可能需要很長時間才能適應。基本經濟數據的走勢看上去起伏不定，這很危險。

Either way, two things are now clear: first, this volatility is unlikely to vanish any time soon in a world of increasing reflexivity; and second, the Fed will need to play an astonishingly canny hand in the coming weeks.

不管怎樣，現在有兩點是明確的：首先，在一個“反射作用”日益增強的世界裏，這種波動性不太可能很快消失；其次，未來幾周，美聯儲需要使出出人意料的精明招數。

One place to start would be for it to commit to publishing the results of those novel stress tests on negative rates as quickly as possible — and with all the details. The Fed cannot afford to let market imaginations run (any more) wild.

美聯儲首先要做的可能是承諾儘快公佈新的負利率壓力測試結果以及所有細節。讓市場想象（更）瘋狂發展是美聯儲承受不起的。