大宗商品市場陷五年來最差行情
The commodity rout is approaching an ugly new milestone, with losses across more members of a leading benchmark than in any year since the financial crisis.
大宗商品暴跌行情正接近一個難看的新的里程碑，彭博大宗商品指數(Bloomberg Commodity Index)中，價格下跌的大宗商品種類超過自金融危機以來的任何年份。
All but one of the 22 futures contracts in the Bloomberg Commodity Index are now lower in the year to date, with negative returns ranging from minus 6 per cent for sugar to a staggering 50 per cent plunge for natural gas. The last year so many constituents fell was 2008.
今年迄今，在彭博大宗商品指數的22種期貨合約中，有21種合約價格下跌，跌幅從蔗糖的6%，到天然氣的驚人50%。上一次出現如此多的大宗商品價格下跌是在2008年。
Down 26 per cent in the year to last Friday, the index is headed for the worst of five straight years of declines.
在截至上週五的一年裏，彭博大宗商品指數已累計下跌26%，即將進入連續5年下跌的最糟糕行情。
The breadth of the washout across a varied basket of commodities highlights how pain has spread for producers from grain farmers to commodity exporting nations such as Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
多種大宗商品價格紛紛下跌突顯出，從糧食種植者到巴西和沙特阿拉伯等大宗商品出口國，生產者的痛苦正在蔓延。
Continuing declines could feed into consumer prices and jar the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise US interest rates further next year.
價格繼續下跌可能會傳導至消費者價格，並阻礙美聯儲(Fed)明年繼續加息的計劃。
The Bloomberg index is one of the two most widely used commodity indices, tracked by tens of billions in assets. Commodity investors held $219.5bn as of October, according to RBC Capital Markets, down from more than $400bn at their peak.
彭博大宗商品指數是使用最普遍的兩個大宗商品指數之一，數百億美元的資產跟蹤這一指數。根據加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)的數據，今年10月，大宗商品投資者持有2195億美元資產，而峯值時曾超過4000億美元。
“We have seen a fundamental change in investor attitude towards commodities as an asset class,” said Christophe Salmon, chief financial officer of Trafigura, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders. Trafigura’s Galena Asset Management division has decided to wind down its flagship metals hedge fund after year-end.
全球最大大宗商品交易商之一Trafigura首席財務官克里斯托弗薩爾蒙(Christophe Salmon)表示：“我們看到投資者對於大宗商品這一資產類別的態度發生了根本變化。”該公司旗下的Galena Asset Management決定在今年結束後逐步終止其旗艦金屬對衝基金。
In a sign of commodities’ disfavour, last month the US futures regulator declared it would stop publishing data on commodity index investment due to “a low level of interest”.
上月，美國期貨監管機構宣佈，由於“關注度較低”，將停止公佈有關大宗商品指數投資的數據。這一跡象表明，大宗商品不再受到青睞。
One reason why many futures have dropped is the slowdown in China, the motor of demand growth for commodities from copper to soyabeans. A stronger dollar has pressured commodities in the index as they are priced in the US currency.
衆多大宗商品期貨合約價格下跌的一個原因是中國經濟放緩，中國是從銅到大豆等多種大宗商品需求增長的推動力。美元升值令彭博指數涵蓋的大宗商品價格承壓，因爲它們是以美元計價的。
Unique factors have also played a part, with lean hogs softening due to expanding pork production and natural gas suffering from warm weather in US cities.
特殊因素也起到了一定作用，瘦肉豬價格下跌是因爲生豬產量增加所致，天然氣價格則因美國城市天氣暖和而下跌。
Cotton is the only Bloomberg index member that is up this year, gaining a modest 3.6 per cent as the world harvest shrank by 15.4m bales. Some see it as a harbinger for other commodities as the prolonged price slide begins to cut into supplies.
棉花是彭博指數中唯一一個今年價格出現上漲的品種，由於全球產量減少1540萬包，棉花期貨價格溫和上漲3.6%。一些人認爲這是其他大宗商品的一個先兆，表明長期價格下跌已導致供應縮減。
“We believe we will look back at the first quarter of 2016 as the bottom for commodity markets. Cotton is telegraphing that,” said Ron Lawson of Logic Advisors, commodities investment firm.
美國大宗商品投資機構Logic Advisors的羅恩勞森(Ron Lawson)表示：“我們認爲，2016年第一季度將成爲大宗商品市場的底部。棉花價格正傳達出這一訊息。”
Analysts early this year made a case that commodities were again trading independently of one another, presenting an opportunity for specialist investors able to exploit the idiosyncrasies of individual markets.
今年初，分析人士曾認爲，大宗商品價格再次表現出相互獨立性，這給那些能夠發掘單個市場特性的專業投資者提供了機會。
Almost all commodity futures instead moved in one direction: down.
結果幾乎所有大宗商品期貨價格都是一個走勢：下跌。
“If you were sceptical about commodities five years ago, you probably haven’t gotten evidence to convince you to change your mind,” said Kurt Nelson, partner at SummerHaven, a commodities investment manager.
大宗商品投資管理公司SummerHaven合夥人庫爾特納爾遜(Kurt Nelson)表示：“如果你5年前曾對大宗商品懷有疑慮的話，那麼你現在可能還沒有找到證據來說服你改變想法。”
