增速5年來最低水平 A股能否延續上漲行情

Even as China’s economy has faltered, growing at its lowest pace in more than five years in the third quarter, the stock market has surged. Investors, it seems, are betting that the weak economy will force the central bank to pump cheap money into the financial system.

儘管中國經濟步履蹣跚——今年第三季度的增速是5年多以來的最低水平——但其股市仍大幅上漲。投資者似乎在押注經濟疲弱將迫使中國央行向金融體系注入廉價資金。

Other forces are at work. The launch of the Hong Kong-Shanghai stock connect, which will give foreign investors access to the Shanghai market, has stoked bullishness, amid expectations that foreign inflows will lift demand for shares once the pilot programme gets under way.

其他因素也起了作用。“滬港通”項目（該試點項目將允許外國投資者進入上海股市）的出臺刺激了做多情緒，人們預計，一旦該項目實施，外國資金的流入將會提振內地股票的需求。

Chinese equities have outperformed every leading market for the past three months. The CSI 300, an index of large companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, is up 13 per cent in that time, way ahead of India’s 0.5 per cent gain, the distant second best in Asia. The index hit a near 20-month high this month before retreating slightly.

中國股市過去3個月的表現比任何一個主要市場都強。由上海和深圳股市的大型上市公司組成的滬深300指數(CSI 300)在這3個月裏上漲了13%，遙遙領先於亞洲漲幅第二的印度股市，後者上漲了0.5%。滬深300指數本月在創出將近20個月來的新高後小幅回落。

A disconnect between stocks and the wider economy is nothing new for China, but the relationship has usually been reversed. After hitting an all-time high in late 2007, the CSI 300 lost ground for four of six years between 2008 and 2013, even as the economy boomed. Even after recent gains, the index remains nearly 60 per cent below its 2007 peak.

股市與宏觀經濟脫節對中國來說不是什麼新鮮事，兩者之間的關係往往是反相關的。在2007年末創出紀錄高點以後，滬深300指數在從2008年到2013年的6年裏有4年都是下跌，儘管其間中國經濟蓬勃發展。即便在經歷了最近的上漲之後，該指數仍比其2007年的峯值低近60%。

Several factors explain the strong performance of mainland equities, known as “A-shares”, in recent months. Some see similarities to the performance of US and European markets since the financial crisis, where loose monetary policy boosted equity and bond markets as the real economy stagnated.

被稱爲“A股”的中國內地股票近幾個月來表現強勁，背後可能有多個原因。一些人認爲，它與美國和歐洲市場自金融危機以來的表現相似——在歐洲和美國，隨着實體經濟停滯不前，政府出臺的寬鬆貨幣政策推升了股市和債市。

“In the US in 2010-12 the economy was in bad shape but the stock market rose. It’s the exact opposite of the A-share market of years past,” said Wu Weizhi, chairman of Rabbit Fund, a Shenzhen-based hedge fund.

中歐瑞博投資管理股份有限公司(Rabbit Fund)董事長吳偉志表示：“在2010年至2012年的美國，經濟低迷，但股市上漲。過去幾年的A股市場正好相反。”中歐瑞博是總部位於深圳的一家對衝基金。

“A lot of Chinese A-share investors are fairly optimistic about the stock market because they see this kind of change coming. The trend of falling interest rates is already quite clear. It’s just a matter of how low they’ll go.”

“許多中國A股投資者都對股市相當樂觀，因爲他們認爲這種變化即將來臨。利率日益走低的趨勢已非常明顯。現在僅僅是利率將會有多低的問題。”

Other investors point to the influence of a weak property market. The dismal performance of equities in recent years helped fuel a real estate bubble. But property prices have fallen for four consecutive months and attitudes towards real estate as an asset class have begun to shift.

其他投資者提到了樓市低迷造成的影響。近幾年股市的低迷表現幫助催生了房地產泡沫。但房價已連續4個月下跌，房地產作爲一個資產類別，投資者對其的態度已開始發生變化。

“From the perspective of asset allocation, the demand for funds from the real economy is gradually declining, so money will circulate in secondary markets,” said Gui Jiang, founder of Simpleway Asset Management. “But real estate has already hit a cyclical high point, so the stock market looks likely to become the main destination for funds.”

信璞投資管理有限公司(Simpleway Asset Management)創始人歸江表示：“從資產配置的角度看，實體經濟的資金需求在逐步下降，因此資金會在二級市場內循環。但房地產已經達到週期性高點，因此股市看上去很可能會成爲資金的主要目的地。”

Others cite the impending launch of the stock connect programme, which will allow Hong Kong and foreign investors to buy a net Rmb13bn ($2.1bn) in 568 selected Shanghai-listed stocks a day, up to a total of Rmb300bn. The start date, originally planned for this month, is now uncertain.

還有人提到了即將開通的“滬港通”項目的影響。在該項目下，香港和外國投資者可投資568只選定的滬市股票，日投資額度爲130億人民幣（合21億美元），總額度爲3000億元人民幣。“滬港通”項目原計劃於本月開通，現在開通時間待定。

Some offshore investors have been looking to pre-empt the stock connect by using existing channels to add exposure to China and exploit price gaps among dual-listed companies. That has helped push the average premium for Hong Kong-listed over mainland-listed shares down from 11 per cent in July to 2 per cent yesterday.

一些海外投資者一直在試圖搶在“滬港通”項目開通前有所行動，他們利用現有渠道來增加對中國內地的投資敞口，並抓住滬港兩地上市公司的A股與H股價差牟利。這在一定程度上導致H股相對於A股的平均溢價從7月份的11%收窄至昨日的2%。

Indeed, demand for foreign ETFs tracking the mainland market has been so strong that some providers have been forced to limit or halt new subscriptions as they exhaust their quotas under the QFII programme.

實際上，投資者對追蹤中國內地股市的海外ETF（交易所交易基金）的需求極爲強勁，以至於一些ETF提供商在用光它們的合格境外機構投資者(QFII)配額後被迫限制或暫停新的申購。

Much depends on whether market expectations for further monetary easing turn out to be correct. The People’s Bank of China last week injected Rmb200bn in liquidity into the banking system via loans to midsize banks, but it has so far eschewed aggressive easing in favour of targeted measures.

股市能否繼續上漲，在很大程度上取決於市場所預期的貨幣政策進一步放鬆是否會成爲現實。中國央行上週通過向中型銀行發放貸款，向銀行業體系注入2000億元人民幣流動性，但它迄今仍避免採取激進的寬鬆措施，而是更傾向於採取有針對性的舉措。

The CSI 300 fell 0.5 per cent on Tuesday, despite data showing gross domestic product growing slightly faster than expected. This suggests that any news that implies a lower probability of further monetary easing is likely to hurt the market. And that has led sceptics to question the sustainability of the current rally.

滬深300指數週二下跌0.5%，儘管數據顯示中國國內生產總值(GDP)增速略高於預期。這表明，任何暗示進一步貨幣寬鬆可能性下降的消息都可能打擊市場。這導致懷疑論者開始質疑當前上漲行情的可持續性。