人民幣匯率持續下跌 政府調控難挽頹勢

HONG KONG — At the end of last month, the Chinese renminbi was anointed as one of the world’s elite currencies, a first for an emerging market and a widely hailed acknowledgment of China’s rising financial influence and economic might.

香港——上月底，中國的人民幣被指定爲世界主要貨幣之一，這對一個新興市場經濟體來說是首次，也受到人們的廣泛稱讚，認爲這是對中國正在崛起的金融影響力和經濟實力的承認。

But soon after reaching that milestone, the renminbi started slowly and steadily falling as Chinese companies and individuals moved huge sums of money out of the country’s weakening economy.

但是，由於中國企業和個人在把鉅額資金撤出中國的疲軟經濟，導致人民幣在達到這個里程碑後不久，就開始緩慢、持續地貶值。

The falling currency sets a fresh challenge for Beijing’s leaders as the Chinese renminbi is increasingly woven into the global marketplace. While a weaker currency helps the country’s exporters, the government must also control the slide, or risk fanning market worries and trade tensions.

人民幣的貶值給北京的領導人帶來一種新的挑戰，因爲中國的貨幣已經越來越多地與全球市場交織在一起。雖然貨幣貶值有助於中國的出口，但政府仍須控制貨幣的下滑，以免誘發市場憂慮和貿易緊張關係。

So far, the Chinese government has stepped into currency markets repeatedly to control the tempo of the drop, but not enough to stop it.

到目前爲止，中國政府已多次涉入貨幣市場以控制人民幣貶值的速度，但其做法還不足以阻止貶值。

Over the last two weeks, the renminbi has dropped 1.3 percent against the dollar. The move follows a 4 percent devaluation in August. And while China’s central bank has stayed studiously silent, most banking industry economists now expect the renminbi to continue slipping in the weeks and months to come.

在過去的兩週裏，人民幣兌美元的匯率已降低了1.3％。這是在8月份人民幣貶值4％之後。儘管中國央行一直對此有意保持沉默，但大多數銀行業經濟學家現在預期人民幣在未來幾周和幾個月裏將繼續下滑。

“We are looking for larger depreciation in the first half of next year, and then a stabilization,” said Ryan Lam, the head of research at Shanghai Commercial Bank, a Hong Kong institution.

“我們預計將在明年上半年看到更大的貶值，然後趨穩，”香港上海商業銀行研究部負責人瑞安·林(Ryan Lam)說。

The currency is partly a barometer of global forces, a sign of the Chinese economy’s weakness and the dollar’s strength. It also reflects the market’s bet that the currency will continue to fall as the Chinese government looks to help the country’s economy by making exporters more competitive.

人民幣的走向在一定程度上是全球市場力量的晴雨表，反映了中國經濟疲軟和美元走強的跡象，也反映了隨着中國政府希望用讓出口更具競爭力來幫助中國經濟復甦，市場把賭注押在人民幣的繼續貶值上。

Every morning this last week, the central bank has weakened by an additional 0.1 or 0.2 percent its daily fixing of the value of the renminbi, which sets the midpoint for the currency’s daily trading range.

上週每天早上，中國央行在設定人民幣的初始值、既人民幣每日交易區間的中間價時，都在讓人民幣以0.1%或0.2％的幅度貶值。

The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, faces a tricky balancing act.

作爲央行的中國人民銀行面臨着一種棘手的平衡。

If the renminbi falls too steeply, the volatility could prompt traders to place large bets on further depreciation, making the decline harder to control. The International Monetary Fund added the renminbi on Nov. 30 to its group of global reserve currencies, alongside the dollar, euro, yen and pound. In an effort to meet the I.M.F. requirements, China had to loosen some of its currency controls, making it somewhat more susceptible to market forces.

如果人民幣貶值的速度太快，可能會促使投資者把大量賭注押在更進一步的貶值上，這會讓貶值的趨勢難以控制。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在11月30日把人民幣納入了全球儲備貨幣籃子，全球儲備貨幣還有美元、歐元、日元和英鎊。中國爲了滿足IMF的要求，不得不對其貨幣放鬆了一些管制，這使人民幣更容易受市場力量的影響。

While a weaker currency helps Chinese exporters, it also adds to the country’s already widening trade surplus with the United States.

雖然人民幣貶值有助於中國出口商，但這也讓中國與美國不斷增漲的貿易順差進一步擴大。

The I.M.F. has a policy of not commenting on short-term currency fluctuations, while the People’s Bank of China and the United States Treasury very seldom do so. All three declined to issue statements on the renminbi’s drop since the I.M.F. decision three weeks ago.

IMF的政策是不對匯率的短期波動發表評論，中國人民銀行和美國財政部也很少發表評論。這三家機構都拒絕對人民幣自從IMF三週前的決定以來的貶值發表評論。

The I.M.F. had said that China has adopted substantial reforms aimed at making the renminbi more “freely usable.” The Treasury accepted this in lending American support to the decision by the I.M.F.’s board to accept the renminbi. The I.M.F. and the Treasury have both urged China to let markets play a greater role in setting the value of the renminbi, which makes it harder for them to object now when market forces push down the currency.

IMF曾表示，中國爲了讓人民幣能“更自由地使用”已進行了實質性的改革。美國支持IMF董事會把人民幣納入儲備貨幣藍子的決定是因爲美國財政部接受了IMF的上述說法。IMF和美國財政部都在敦促中國在制定人民幣價值上讓市場發揮更大的作用，因此當市場現在壓低了人民幣的價值時，這兩家機構都很難表示反對。

Those market forces are tougher to manage, although China still has formidable resources to do so.

雖然這種市場力量更難管理，但中國仍然有強大的資源來這樣做。

It has the world’s largest trade surplus. And until the last couple of years, that kept the renminbi on a path of gradual appreciation. But money is sluicing out of the country now, and it is more than offsetting the money that comes in from China’s selling of more goods overseas.

中國擁有世界上最大的貿易順差。直到最近一兩年，這個順差一直把人民幣保持在逐漸升值的道路上。然而現在，錢正在泄洪式地流出國門，足以抵消中國向海外出口更多商品所產生的任何外匯收入。

The Chinese government has responded to faltering investment spending in the country by cutting interest rates. While lower lending rates have helped housing prices and construction by making mortgages cheaper, lower rates on bank deposits have also given an extra incentive for Chinese investors to look overseas for opportunities. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is now raising interest rates, making it more attractive to keep money in dollars.

作爲對國內投資支出疲軟的響應，中國政府已多次降息。雖然較低的貸款利率讓抵押貸款更便宜，幫助提升了住房價格和建築行業，但銀行的低存款利率也讓中國投資者有更多的理由到海外尋找機會。與此同時，美聯儲現在開始加息，這讓持有美元更具吸引力。

Chinese exporters — and importers in the United States and Europe — are celebrating the renminbi’s weakness.

中國的出口商以及美國和歐洲的進口商都對人民幣的走弱表示歡迎。

Betty Chong, a director of the J.C. & Winsons Company, which manufactures gloves, hats and scarfs in Wuxi for export, said that she no longer added a premium to her prices as a buffer against appreciation of the renminbi. “The devaluation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar of course helps my exports — my goods are comparatively more competitive than those from nearby manufacturers in Bangladesh, Vietnam and India,” she said.

永盛創業是一家在無錫生產出口手套、帽子和圍巾的公司，公司董事貝蒂·莊(Betty Chong)表示，現在他們無需再額外加價來緩衝人民幣的升值了。“人民幣對美元貶值有利於我們的出口業務——相對於附近孟加拉國、越南和印度的生產商，我們產品的競爭力增強了，”她說。

China’s exporters to Europe are benefiting, as well as those selling to the United States. China’s central bank made headlines a week ago by saying that it would publish an index of the renminbi’s value in terms of a basket of currencies, not just the dollar. Such an index would highlight that the renminbi actually strengthened against some currencies in the first 11 months of this year, like the euro, even as it weakened against the strong dollar.

和麪向美國的出口商一樣，面向對歐洲的中國出口商也從中受益。中國央行上週表示，它將參考一籃子貨幣發佈人民幣匯率指數，而不僅僅參考美元，這個消息登上了報紙頭條。該指數將突顯人民幣今年前11個月相對於歐元等一些貨幣實際是在走強，雖然它對相對於堅挺的美元走弱。

But because the dollar has faltered in the past two weeks, the drop in the renminbi lately has been even sharper against other currencies. The renminbi has fallen 3.7 percent against the euro in the past two weeks, for example.

但由於美元在過去兩週裏有所下滑，人民幣最近相對於對其他貨幣的跌幅更大。例如在過去兩週，人民幣對歐元下跌了3.7%。

A weaker renminbi is not a complete boon to Chinese companies.

對中國企業來說，人民幣走弱也不全是好事。

Zhang Zepeng, the sales manager at the Qingdao Reliance Refrigeration Equipment Company, which makes cold-storage rooms and refrigerator compressors in Qingdao, has profited from a weaker renminbi on its exports. But he is concerned about rising costs for supplies bought overseas, since his company also sells within China.

張澤鵬（音）是青島信實製冷設備公司的銷售經理，該公司製造冷藏室和冰箱的壓縮機，其出口業務從人民幣貶值中受益。但張澤鵬對不斷上漲的原材料進口費用感到擔心，因爲該公司也在國內銷售產品。

“Since we need to import some of our raw materials, I do not want to see the RMB further devalue to, say, 6.7 or 6.8 against the U.S. dollar, since that will mean we will have to pay more for our raw material imports as well,” he said. It is now around 6.5 to the dollar.

“我們需要進口一些原材料，我不希望看到人民幣進一步貶值到6.7或6.8元兌1美元，因爲這意味着我們必須花更多的錢在原材料進口上，“他說。目前人民幣對美元匯率在6.5左右。