人民幣匯率中間價降至五年低點

China’s central bank set its daily currency “fix” at the lowest level in five years, tracking a weaker market price as the dollar rally took its toll on the renminbi.

中國央行將每日人民幣匯率中間價定在五年來的最低水平，以追蹤較爲疲軟的市場匯率。目前，美元的反彈正令人民幣匯率承壓。

The greenback has gained against a range of global currencies since minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting raised the likelihood of an interest rate rise as early as June or July.

由於美聯儲(Fed)近期會議的紀要內容加大了最早於6月或7月加息的可能性，美元相對一系列全球貨幣出現升值。

On Wednesday the People’s Bank of China set the fix 0.34 per cent below the previous day’s, in line with its commitment in August to set guidance based on the previous day’s spot close and the dollar’s moves against other global currencies.

週三，中國央行將當日人民幣匯率中間價定在比前一日低0.34%的水平，此舉符合該行去年8月作出的承諾。該行當時承諾，要依據前一日即期匯率收盤價和美元相對其他全球貨幣的走勢來設定人民幣匯率中間價。

After touching its weakest level in nearly four months on Wednesday morning, the onshore spot rate closed essentially flat. Traders said they suspected that the central bank had intervened modestly to prevent a sharp fall in the spot rate.

在週三上午觸及將近四個月來的低點後，在岸人民幣即期匯率收盤價與開盤價基本持平。交易員們表示，他們懷疑中國央行已適度出手干預，以防止人民幣即期匯率大幅下跌。

Foreign investors have struggled to interpret China's exchange rate policy since last August, when the central bank changed the way it sets it daily guidance for the currency to track market prices rather than dictate them.

去年8月，中國央行改變了人民幣匯率中間價設定方式，以追蹤市場走勢而不是指揮市場。自那以來，如何解讀中國的匯率政策一直令外國投資者大傷腦筋。

Local market participants broadly agree the renminbi is significantly more market-driven now than it was before the change. Shifting expectations about the timing of the next Fed interest-rate rise — rather than PBoC policy — are now the main force buffeting the renminbi, traders say.

當地的市場參與者普遍認同一點：與那次匯改前相比，如今人民幣匯率受市場影響的程度要大得多。交易員們表示，如今左右人民幣匯率的，是人們不斷改變的、對美聯儲(Fed)加息時點的預期，而不是中國央行的政策。

“The PBoC’s FX reserves have been stable and exchange rate depreciation expectations have ebbed. But the yuan’s twin outflows of foreign investors unwinding carry trades and local firms paying FX debts have continued,” Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, senior market strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore, wrote on Wednesday. “Both are now set to flare up again as the Fed gets ready to hike rates this summer.”

週三，蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)駐新加坡高級市場策略師曼蘇爾•莫希-烏丁(Mansoor Mohi-Uddin)寫道：“近來中國央行的外匯儲備很穩定，人民幣貶值預期也已消退。不過，境外投資者退出套息交易以及國內企業償付外幣債務導致的兩股資金外流仍在繼續。隨着美聯儲準備好在今年夏天加息，這兩股資金外流將再次提速。”

Mr Mohi-Uddin expects the the yuan to fall to 6.80 in the coming months and believes it may reach 7.00 if the Fed hikes rates times two or three times in 2016.

莫希-烏丁預計，今後幾個月人民幣匯率會跌至1美元兌換6.80元人民幣，如果美聯儲在2016年加息兩到三次的話，人民幣匯率或許會跌至1美元兌7.00元人民幣。