新興市場ETF遭遇拋售潮 Emerging market ETFs bleed $19bn so far this year

Fears about deteriorating economic conditions in China, Brazil and Russia have led to a massive retreat from emerging market exchange traded funds.

對中國、巴西和俄羅斯經濟狀況惡化的擔憂導致新興市場交易所交易基金(ETF)遭遇大規模資金流出。

So far this year investors have pulled $19bn from emerging market ETFs but experts suggest these vehicles are vulnerable to much more selling pressure.

今年迄今，投資者已從新興市場ETF撤出190億美元，但專家們提出，這些投資工具很容易受到更多拋售壓力。

Geoff Dennis, head of emerging markets equity strategy at UBS, the bank, said: “It feels like no one wants to be in emerging markets at the moment.”

瑞銀(UBS)新興市場股票策略主管傑夫丹尼斯(Geoff Dennis)表示：“眼下的感覺像是沒有人願意投資新興市場。”

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly survey of fund managers in September, the number of investment managers that are “underweight” emerging markets is the largest since 2005.

根據美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch) 9月進行的月度基金經理調查，新興市場股票持有量偏低的投資經理數量是2005年以來最大的。

The two largest products tracking these markets — BlackRock’s MSCI emerging markets ETF and Vanguard’s FTSE emerging markets ETF — have experienced divergent levels of outflows.

追蹤新興市場的兩大產品——貝萊德(BlackRock)的MSCI新興市場ETF(MSCI emerging markets ETF)和先鋒(Vanguard)的富時新興市場ETF(FTSE emerging markets ETF)——遭遇了不同水平的流出。

BlackRock’s fund suffered net withdrawals of $7.4bn, while Vanguard’s ETF, which comprises mostly retail investors who tend to be “stickier” than institutional investors, had outflows of $1.1bn.

貝萊德的基金遭受了74億美元的淨流出，而以散戶投資者（其“粘性”往往大於機構投資者）爲主的先鋒ETF，遭受了11億美元的流出。

Ursula Marchioni, chief strategist at iShares, BlackRock’s ETF arm, said: “It is too early to call a bottom in emerging markets, but valuations now appear attractive.”

貝萊德ETF部門——安碩(iShares)的首席策略師厄休拉氠爾基奧尼(Ursula Marchioni)表示：“現在就斷定新興市場已經觸底還爲時過早，但目前的估值似乎頗具吸引力。”

Ritesh Samadhiya, an equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch, said fund managers fear a possible recession in China and the threat of a broader debt crisis in emerging markets.

美銀美林股票策略師拉提什薩馬德亞(Ritesh Samadhiya)表示，基金經理擔心中國可能陷入經濟衰退，擔心新興市場爆發全面債務危機的威脅。

The US Federal Reserve cited concerns over China as a factor in its decision not to increase US interest rates on September 17.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)在9月17日決定不加息時，將有關中國的擔憂列爲一個因素。

BlackRock is hopeful this will improve the situation. “The Fed’s decision to hold rates could provide a boost to sentiment, but fundamentals in emerging market economies remain weak and we expect to see more volatility,” said Ms Marchioni.

貝萊德認爲美聯儲的決定有望使局面改觀。“美聯儲決定維持利率不變可能提振情緒，但新興市場經濟體的基本面仍然疲弱，我們預期會看到更多波動，”馬爾基奧尼表示。

Since the Federal Reserve’s announcement, $1bn flowed into BlackRock’s MSCI emerging markets ETF, although this is due to some investors closing short positions and ending bets on further price weakness.

自美聯儲宣佈其決定以來，貝萊德的MSCI新興市場ETF獲得10億美元的流入，儘管這是由於部分投資者解除空頭頭寸，結束對價格進一步疲軟的押注。

Other casualties of the sell-off include BlackRock’s single-country ETFs that provide exposure to Brazil, Mexico and South Korea. Together they registered net outflows of almost $2.3bn this year.

此輪拋售的其它對象包括貝萊德的單一國家ETF，此類基金提供巴西、墨西哥和韓國的敞口。今年以來它們總共遭受近23億美元的淨流出。

China-focused ETFs have also been subject to extreme pressure, with the Shanghai stock index down 40 per cent since its peak in late June.

專注於中國的ETF也受到極大壓力，原因是上海基準股指已從6月觸及的高點下跌40%。

The iShares FTSE A50 China ETF, which is listed in Hong Kong, has seen outflows of $5.6bn this year. Mainland Chinese assets managers have also been hit by withdrawals. Harvest, China Asset Management, Huatai-Pinebridge, CSOP and E-Fund together experienced net outflows of $18bn this year.

在香港上市的安碩富時A50中國指數ETF(iShares FTSE A50 China ETF)今年以來遭受56億美元的淨流出。中國內地的資產管理公司也受到資金流出的打擊。嘉實(Harvest)、華夏基金(China Asset Management)、華泰柏瑞(Huatai-Pinebridge)，南方東英(CSOP)和易方達(E-Fund)今年總共遭受了180億美元的淨流出。

ETFs tracking Chinese markets were dented after volatile conditions led to trading suspensions of more than half the companies on the country’s two main exchanges in July.

跟蹤中國市場的ETF受到打擊，也是因爲7月份市場動盪導致中國兩大股市超過一半的上市公司停牌。

Managers insisted their Chinese ETFs traded without interruption despite the suspensions in many of the underlying stocks. This failed to convince the majority of investors to stick with their funds, and experts suggest they might not be persuaded to return.

各管理公司堅稱，它們的中國ETF的交易沒有中斷，儘管組成ETF的許多股票停牌。但這未能說服多數投資者繼續持有這些基金，專家們暗示，這些投資者可能不會回頭。