美聯儲加息將給俄經濟帶來不確定性
Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev proposed last week that the country formulate budgets for only one year instead of the traditional three. Officially, the reason that the government feels unable to plan ahead for so long are the risks surrounding the oil price and rouble exchange rate fluctuations. But cabinet officials say the move was precipitated by the uncertainty over what happens when US rates rise.
俄羅斯總理德米特里蔠德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)上週提議俄只制定一年的預算，而非傳統上的三年預算。俄政府感到無法制定這麼長時間的預算，官方就此給出的解釋是，存在油價和盧布匯率波動的風險。但俄內閣官員表示，之所以會有這麼一出，是因爲不知道美國加息後會發生什麼。
Economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev has already become a laughing stock for adjusting the economic growth rate several times a year.
俄經濟部長阿列克謝烏柳卡耶夫(Alexei Ulyukayev)之前已因一年數次調整經濟增長率而淪爲人們的笑柄。
“But at least every time the rouble drops or soars again, at least we know what it means for the economy,” said one former senior official in Mr Ulyukayev’s ministry. “We can’t say that of the impact of US monetary policy. It could bring just a little bit more pressure on our currency and just a little bit more capital outflows, both of which wouldn’t be felt too strongly overall, or it could affect our financial stability.”
“但至少，每次盧布下跌或再次飆升的時候，我們還知道這對經濟意味着什麼。”一名曾任俄經濟部高官的人士表示，“至於美國的貨幣政策會帶來什麼影響，我們就不知道了。它可能只會對我們的貨幣帶來略多一點的壓力、讓我們的資本外流稍稍加速，整體而言這兩方面的衝擊給我們的感覺都不會太強烈；又或者，它可能會影響我們的金融穩定。”
For Russia’s central bank, a stronger dollar, almost inevitably the result of a rate hike in the US, would make it even more difficult to rebuild its international reserves, which have dwindled from more than $500bn before the current crisis to $364bn.
美國加息幾乎必然會讓美元變得更加強勢，這將讓俄羅斯央行更難以重建其外匯儲備——俄羅斯外匯儲備已從本次危機前的逾5000億美元降至3640億美元。
The predictions for the fallout of a possible US interest rate rise for Russia differ widely. Western sanctions imposed last year, cheaper oil and consequently a drastically weaker rouble have already wreaked havoc, causing the economy to contract by 2.2 per cent in the first quarter and by 4.6 per cent in the second.
關於美國可能進行的加息會對俄造成何種影響，各種預測分歧很大。西方去年實施的制裁、油價下跌以及由此導致的盧布大幅貶值，已對俄經濟造成嚴重破壞，今年一季度和二季度，俄經濟分別收縮了2.2%和4.6%。
“Of course a US rate hike would be negative for Russia, but not as negative as for some other emerging markets, because due to the sanctions, we are no longer as connected economically with the US as we used to be,” says Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital.
晉新資本(Renaissance Capital)經濟學家奧列格錠神明(Oleg Kouzmin)表示：“美國加息當然會對俄羅斯造成負面影響，但不會像對其他一些新興市場那樣嚴重，原因是西方的制裁使得我們與美國的經濟聯繫已不像過去那樣緊密。”
As a result of capital market sanctions, US banks now play a much smaller role as sources of new loans for Russian companies, many institutional investors have reduced their exposure to Russia, and Russian external trade has shrunk drastically.
資本市場制裁的結果是，美國的銀行現在在向俄企業提供新貸款方面起的作用要小得多，許多機構投資者削減了對俄敞口，而俄羅斯的對外貿易已大幅萎縮。
“If you are underweight Russia already, there is not that much more you can reduce,” says Mr Kouzmin.
庫茲明表示：“如果你之前已經削減了對俄敞口，那你現在就沒有太多減倉空間了。”
But others argue that the key point is how the effects of higher US rates on global trade will hit Russia.
但還有一些人辯稱，關鍵問題在於，美國加息對全球貿易造成的影響將如何衝擊俄羅斯。
“Russia’s heavy dependence on oil and gas exports means that its economy is more vulnerable to external shocks of all kinds,” says a US executive who has been investing in Russia for almost 20 years.
將近20年來一直投資俄羅斯的一名美國企業高管表示：“俄嚴重依賴石油和天然氣出口，這意味着，其經濟抵禦各種外部衝擊的能力要更弱一些。
“The question is therefore more what a US rate hike does to all emerging markets and the world economy, and if it does much damage there, Russia will suffer maximum pain.”
“因此，問題在更大程度上在於，美國加息對所有新興市場和世界經濟有何影響，如果它給新興市場和世界經濟造成重創，俄羅斯遭受的苦難將最爲嚴重。”
