美聯儲加息條件接近成熟 Conditions for rate rise approaching

Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concern about low inflation as well as threats to the US economy posed by a stronger dollar and developments in China, but deemed conditions for a rate rise to be “approaching”, according to minutes released on Wednesday.

週三公佈的會議紀要顯示，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)政策制定者對低通脹、對美元走強和中國形勢對美國經濟構成的威脅表示關切，但認爲加息的條件正在“接近”成熟。

The minutes of the July 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee include no mention of any plans to raise rates at their next meeting September 16-17. They point to a vigorous debate within the Fed over a number of key data points including inflation and the timing of an increase.

聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC) 7月28-29日的會議紀要，沒有提到在9月16-17日下次會議加息的計劃。紀要透露的情況是，美聯儲內部圍繞一些關鍵數據點（包括通脹和加息時機）正在展開激烈辯論。

But the minutes also offer a view of a Fed that is clearly approaching decision time on raising rates for the first time in almost a decade with much of the bank’s internal discussions focused on how best to communicate the eventual move to markets.

但紀要也讓人看到，美聯儲顯然正在接近差不多10年來首次加息的決策時間，該機構的內部討論有很大一部分聚焦於如何最好地向市場傳達最終的行動。

“Most [FOMC members] judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point,” Fed staff wrote.

“大多數（FOMC成員）判斷，收緊政策的條件尚未具備，但他們指出，各項條件正在接近這一點，”美聯儲人員寫道。

When that moment came, however, the Fed’s policymakers appeared keen to emphasise that it would likely be followed only by modest future increases in the federal funds rate.

然而，美聯儲政策制定者似乎熱衷於強調，當加息條件成熟時，聯邦基金利率接下來很可能只是適度上調。

Members of the FOMC were keen to make sure that “the committee’s communications around the time of the first rate increase should emphasise that the expected path for policy, not the initial increase, would be the most important determinant of financial conditions and should acknowledge that policy would continue to be accommodative,” Fed staff wrote.

聯邦公開市場委員會的成員們熱衷於確保“首次加息前後，委員會的溝通應該強調，政策的預期路徑，而不是初次加息本身，將是金融條件的最重要決定因素，同時應該承認政策將繼續保持寬鬆，”美聯儲人員寫道。

The July meeting took place before China’s move last week to depreciate its currency, the renminbi, in what many have interpreted as an expression of concern by the leadership in Beijing over the slowing Chinese economy.

7月的會議是在中國上週讓人民幣貶值之前召開的。很多人的解讀是，中國此舉反映出北京的領導層對於中國經濟不斷放緩感到擔憂。

But the Fed policymakers already had the potential risks posed by China in mind when they met in July. Some FOMC members expressed concerns about events there even as they saw diminishing risks of an escalating crisis in Greece.

但美聯儲政策制定者在7月開會時已經料到了中國構成的潛在風險。一些FOMC成員對中國的事態表示關注，即便在他們看來，希臘危機升級的風險正在逐漸消失。

“While the recent Chinese stock market decline seemed to have had limited implications to date for the growth outlook in China, several participants noted that a material slowdown in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the US economic outlook,” the minutes said.

“雖然近期中國股市下跌對中國增長前景的影響迄今似乎有限，但數名與會者指出，中國經濟活動若發生實質性放緩，可能給美國經濟前景帶來風險，”會議紀要稱。

There were also concerns that a Fed move to raise rates could lead to a divergence internationally in interest rates that “might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports,” Fed staff wrote.

美聯儲人員寫道，還有人擔心，美聯儲加息可能導致國際間利率走勢分化，“可能導致美元進一步升值，擴大大宗商品價格的下行壓力，加劇美國淨出口的疲弱”。