美聯儲做出歷史性加息決定 Fed raises rates in historic move

The Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, calling an end to the near-zero borrowing costs that have prevailed since the US was struck by the worst financial crash in modern times.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)近10年來首次上調短期利率，結束了自美國遭遇近代最嚴重金融危機以後一直實行的接近於零的借款成本。

In a landmark step, the US central bank announced a quarter-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.25-0.5 per cent, lifting it from the historic lows it has occupied since December 2008, when the US was mired in an economic crisis that would ultimately drive unemployment to 10 per cent.

美國央行邁出了具有里程碑意義的一步，宣佈將聯邦基金利率上調四分之一個百分點，至0.25%-0.5%的目標區間，此前美國利率自2008年12月（當時美國深陷經濟危機，這場危機最終使美國失業率升至10%）以來一直徘徊於歷史低點。

Policymakers expect only “gradual” future increases in the federal funds rate after yesterday’s move, the Fed said in a statement. It added that given the current shortfall in inflation compared with its 2 per cent target, it would “carefully monitor actual and expected progress” towards its inflation goal.

美聯儲在一份聲明中表示，政策制定者預計，昨日加息後，未來加息只會“循序漸進地”進行。該機構還稱，鑑於目前的通脹率距離2%的目標水平仍有一定差距，它將在實現其通脹目標方面“認真監測實際和預期的進展”。

It said it expected to maintain the current large size of its balance sheet until normalisation of interest rates was “well under way”.

美聯儲表示，它預期將保持目前較大規模的資產負債表，直到利率正常化“順利推進”。

The two-year Treasury yield jumped above the 1 per cent mark for the first time since 2010 after the decision.

加息決定公佈後，2年期美國國債收益率自2010年以來首次躍升至1%關口上方。

The US central bank’s upward move may be incremental at just 25 basis points, but it represents a historic gamble by chair Janet Yellen, coming at a time when global growth remains lacklustre and the Fed’s foreign counterparts including the European Central Bank are set upon easy policy.

美聯儲加息行動或許是漸進式的，幅度僅爲25個基點，但此舉代表着該機構主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)的歷史性豪賭，因爲當前全球經濟增長依然乏力，美聯儲的國外同行，包括歐洲央行(ECB)，正在實行寬鬆貨幣政策。

The increase comes amid signs of a steady US recovery, with consumer spending growth holding firm and unemployment standing at just 5 per cent, lower than the 5.3 per cent rate that was prevailing when the Fed last kick-started an interest rate-raising cycle in 2004.

美聯儲加息之際，有跡象表明美國經濟穩步復甦，消費支出強勁增長，失業率只有5%，低於美聯儲2004年上一次啓動加息週期時的5.3%。

While inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed’s 2 per cent goal, the Fed said it was now “reasonably confident” that it will rise back to the objective over the medium term following a considerable improvement in the labour market this year.

儘管通脹迄今頑固地保持在低於目標值2%的水平，但美聯儲表示，它現在“有合理信心認爲”，今年勞動力市場出現顯著好轉之後，中期而言通脹將回升至目標水平。

In its statement, the Fed said its policy stance would remain “accommodative” even after the increase. “The committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labour market indicators will continue to strengthen,” the statement added.

美聯儲在其聲明中表示，即使在此次加息後，其政策立場仍將保持“寬鬆”。聲明稱，“（聯邦公開市場）委員會目前預計，隨着貨幣政策立場逐步調整，經濟活動將繼續以適度步伐擴張，勞動力市場指標將繼續加強。”

Median interest-rate projections from the Fed’s policymakers suggested rates could rise by another 100 basis points in 2016, a faster pace than predicted by financial markets. Their median estimate for the longer-term fed funds rate stayed unchanged at 3.5 per cent.

美聯儲政策制定者的利率預測中值似乎表明，2016年利率可能再上升100個基點，這個速度快於金融市場的預計。市場對較長期聯邦基金利率的預測中值仍爲3.5%。

Ms Yellen has fallen over herself to communicate to markets that the Fed will lift rates only slowly, allowing it to weigh the impact of a modest move on the economy and financial conditions, including the dollar, before following through with further increases. The Fed’s predictions for future increases suggest this will be the shallowest rate-lifting cycle in modern times.

耶倫近來積極地向市場傳遞這樣一個信息，即美聯儲只會緩慢地進行加息，使其能夠評估每一次小幅加息對經濟和金融狀況（包括美元）的影響，然後才進一步加息。美聯儲對未來加息的預測似乎表明，這將是近代以來最平緩的加息週期。

The Fed said that in determining the timing and size of future moves, it will assess “realised and expected” economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 per cent inflation. It currently expects only gradual increases, and the fed fund rates rate is likely to remain below normal levels for some time.

美聯儲表示，在確定未來加息的時機和幅度時，它將以自己的雙重目標（就業最大化和2%的通脹）爲參照，評估“實現的和預期的”經濟狀況。它目前預期利率上調只會循序漸進地進行，聯邦基金利率可能在一段時期內低於正常水平。

The increase will be executed by raising the interest rate the Fed pays on excess reserves held by banks to 0.5 per cent, effective on December 17, as well as the use of an overnight reverse repurchase programme.

此次加息將通過以下方式執行，自12月17日起，美聯儲將把銀行超額存款準備金的利率提高至0.5%，並將實施一個隔夜逆回購計劃。