美聯儲推遲加息牽連了誰 Collateral damage from a delay to US rate rises

If policymakers in the eurozone and Japan hoped to engineer a weaker currency by their aggressive expansion of monetary policy, they must be watching the latest moves in currency markets with dismay. Despite fresh rounds of quantitative easing and radical experiments with negative interest rates — usually associated with a weaker exchange rate — the euro and yen have rallied. Threats of official intervention from Tokyo did nothing to prevent the yen climbing last week to a 17-month high against the dollar.

如果歐元區和日本的政策制定者希望通過貨幣政策的積極擴張使得匯率下跌，他們肯定正在沮喪地看着最近外匯市場的動向。儘管推出了數輪量化寬鬆並祭出了負利率的激進試驗——通常會導致匯率下跌的舉措——但是歐元和日元匯率均出現上漲。日本官方干預市場的威脅未能阻止日元兌美元匯率近日攀升至17個月高點。

Interpreting the vagaries of foreign exchange markets is a risky business. One popular conclusion, though, has been that these moves betray the helplessness of central banks, for whom a weak currency would be an invaluable tool. Investors think the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are nearing the limits of monetary policy and no longer believe they will be able to revive growth and fight off deflation.

解讀外匯市場的異常波動是一件冒險的事。不過，一條廣爲接受的結論是，這些舉動暴露出央行的無能爲力，對於它們來說，疲軟的本幣匯率將是一項非常寶貴的工具。投資者認爲歐洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BoJ)對貨幣政策的運用即將達到極限，他們不再認爲兩家央行有能力恢復經濟增長並對抗通脹。

There is some truth in these fears. The yen’s current level is hardly a ringing endorsement of Abenomics. Nonetheless, the perverse behaviour of foreign exchange markets does not necessarily reflect despair over the state of the global economy. Yen and euro strength is at least in part a consequence of the recent change in stance by the US Federal Reserve, which has signalled that it is in no hurry to proceed with a second rise in interest rates.

這些擔憂有一定道理。日元目前的匯率水平遠算不上是對安倍經濟學(Abenomics)的有力背書。儘管如此，外匯市場的異常表現也未必反映出市場對全球經濟狀況感到絕望。日元和歐元走強至少部分是因爲近期美聯儲(Fed)的立場轉變，該央行釋放信號稱其不急於接着進行第二次加息。

This has triggered weakness in the dollar, now back at last October’s level against a basket of major currencies. This makes the job of the ECB and BoJ harder but will be a great relief to policymakers in many emerging markets. It helps oil exporters that were struggling to keep currency pegs in place — especially as a weaker US currency tends to support commodity prices. It takes the pressure off countries that built up huge volumes of dollar-denominated debt thanks to the excesses encouraged by quantitative easing.

這引發了美元走低，如今美元對一籃子主要貨幣的匯率回到了去年10月的水平。這使得歐洲央行和日本央行的工作更難收到成效，但也使得很多新興市場的政策制定者鬆了一大口氣。美元走低有利於此前難以維繫匯率掛鉤的石油出口國——尤其是因爲美元走低往往可以支撐大宗商品價格。美元走低緩解了美元債務龐大的國家身上的壓力，而導致這些國家積累起龐大美元計價債務的原因，正是當初量化寬鬆所催生的無節制行爲。

Above all, it has already helped China avert a sharp devaluation in the renminbi — addressing one of the biggest fears that fuelled the turbulence in global markets at the start of the year. The Chinese currency has bounced back from January’s lows, with data from March showing the first rise in the country’s foreign exchange reserves in five months.

最重要的是，美元走低已然幫助中國避免了人民幣急劇貶值——解除了今年年初造成全球市場波動的最大擔憂之一。人民幣匯率已經從1月的低點有所反彈，3月數據表明中國外匯儲備5個月來首次回升。

One theory among investors has been that policymakers reached a tacit understanding on the advantages of a weaker dollar at February’s G20 meeting — an echo of the 1985 Plaza accord. This seems improbable, given repeated pledges to avoid any targeting of exchange rates. The Fed’s internal deliberations, however, show a growing appreciation of the risks that global financial turbulence and a global slowdown pose to the US recovery.

投資者中間流傳的一種說法是，在2月的二十國集團(G20)會議上，各國的政策制定者就美元走低的好處達成了默契——1985年廣場協議(‎Plaza Accord)的情景再次上演。考慮到各國再三承諾要避免任何瞄準匯率的行爲，這種情況似乎極不可能。然而，美聯儲內部討論表明，該央行日益充分地認識到了全球金融動盪和全球經濟放緩對美國經濟復甦構成的風險。

Moreover, central banks in advanced economies need to give increasing weight to the effects of their actions on emerging economies. The International Monetary Fund warned this week that “spillovers” from China to global financial markets would grow considerably over the next few years.

此外，各發達經濟體的央行需要日益重視其政策舉動對新興經濟體的影響。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上週警告稱，未來數年，中國對全球金融市場的“溢出效應”將大幅增加。

The Federal Reserve cannot ignore the reality that its actions will have global consequences. The possibility of a shock Chinese devaluation or a debt crisis that might bring down governments in emerging markets is a more alarming prospect than the ever-present risks of sluggish growth in developed economies.

美聯儲不能忽視其舉動將對全球市場造成的影響。人民幣可能急劇貶值或者可能發生一場可能讓新興市場多個政府下臺的債務危機的前景，比始終存在的發達經濟體增長滯緩的風險更令人擔憂。

At present, a policy stance that helps moderate strength in the dollar is in the best interests of the US and of the global economy. Insofar as any conclusion can be drawn from unpredictable short term moves in exchange rates, it is that the eurozone and Japan are suffering collateral damage.

目前，有助於緩和美元走強的政策立場最符合美國乃至全球經濟的利益。如果可以從變化莫測的短期匯率波動得出任何結論的話，那就是歐元區和日本正在承受連帶損害。