應讓希臘無痛離開歐元區 Europe should welcome Greece’s vote

Greece’s No vote was greeted with euphoria in Athens’s Syntagma Square: the fountains were bathed in red light, the flags waved, the crowds sang patriotic songs. Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister, had said the vote was about national pride and his message had struck home. One young woman, a freelance journalist, confided: “I actually voted Yes. But part of me is glad Greece said No. We are a small country, but we have a big history. This is about our dignity.”

希臘的“反對”投票結果在雅典的憲法廣場(Syntagma Square)受到人羣的熱烈歡呼：噴泉沐浴着紅光，人們揮舞着旗幟，高唱着愛國歌曲。希臘總理亞歷克西斯•齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)曾表示這場公投關乎國家自豪感，這一說法深入人心。一名身爲自由職業記者的年輕女子透露：“我實際上投了‘支持’票。但我內心的一部分樂於看到希臘說‘不’。我們是個小國，但我們的歷史源遠流長。這關乎我們的尊嚴。”

Watching the celebrations, however, it was hard not to feel real foreboding. Without a quick new deal with the creditors, Greek banks could collapse within days, introducing the country to a whole new level of economic misery. Pride and dignity would swiftly disappear along with jobs and savings.

然而，看着這場慶祝時，觀察者很難不產生真切的不祥預感。在無法與債權人迅速達成新協議的情況下，希臘銀行業可能在幾天內崩潰，使這個國家的經濟苦難沉入新的谷底。自豪和尊嚴將很快伴隨着就業和儲蓄一同消失。

Mr Tsipras has told his fellow countrymen that he can get a better deal from Europe. But, if he really believes that, he is seriously misreading EU politics. In reality, Greece’s creditors are likely to take a very hard line. They are angry and fed up with Greece. More important, many also believe that the long-term survival of the European single currency depends on making it clear that countries must live by common rules, balance their budgets and pay their debts. If Greece needs to be punished to make that point, so be it.

齊普拉斯告訴其國民稱，他能夠從歐洲得到一份更好的協議。但是，如果他果真如此認爲，那他就嚴重誤判了歐盟(EU)的政治。現實是，希臘的債權人很可能採取非常強硬的立場。它們怒不可遏，對希臘厭煩至極。更重要的是，很多人還認爲歐元區的長期生存有賴於表明所有成員國必須遵守共同規則，平衡本國預算並且償還債務。如果需要用懲罰希臘來表明這一點，那就這樣吧。

The tragedy is that both the Greek government and their creditors are now misreading their own interests. The Greeks still insist that they want to stay inside the European single currency — despite the mounting evidence that it has been a disaster for their economy. The leaders of the eurozone feel that they must be tough with Greece, to discourage other potential rule-breakers.

悲劇在於，希臘政府及其債權人兩方面都看不清自己的利益。希臘人仍然堅持稱他們希望留在歐元區內——儘管越來越多的證據表明單一貨幣對該國經濟是一場災難。歐元區的領導人覺得自己必須強硬對待希臘，以此震懾其他可能破壞規則的國家。

In reality, both Greece and the rest of the eurozone should treat the Greek vote as an opportunity to rethink the malfunctioning euro project. They can find a common interest in making it as painless as possible for Greece to leave the euro — both to lessen the suffering of ordinary Greek people and to establish a model that other countries might be able to follow in the future. For Greece is not the only country struggling to cope with a currency union. The current crisis could be a chance to show there are ways out of the euro that could benefit all sides — those that leave the currency union and those that stay

事實上，希臘及歐元區都應該把希臘公投視爲一個反思運轉不佳的歐元項目的機會。讓希臘盡可能無痛苦地離開歐元區，符合雙方的共同利益——既能減輕希臘普通人的苦難，又建立一個未來其他國家也許能夠效仿的模式。因爲希臘並未唯一一個疲於應付貨幣聯盟的國家。當前的危機可以成爲一個機會——表明有一些退出歐元區的方式可能使各方（無論是離開貨幣聯盟的國家還是繼續留在其中的國家）受益。

For the moment, however, all that eurozone leaders can see is the dangers of making any moves that appear to “reward” Mr Tsipras. They know that there are many heavily-indebted countries in Europe and do not want to encourage the idea that countries can avoid the hard work of getting their national finances in order, in the hope that one day, a debt write-off might come to their rescue. Greece’s national debt as a share of its economy is currently 178 per cent — the largest in the EU. But Italy’s debt-to-output ratio is more than 130 per cent. Even France is closing in on 100 per cent, the figure that Greece was at when the markets first took fright in 2009.

然而，如今歐元區領導人看得見的只是採取任何看似“便宜”齊普拉斯的舉動所帶來的危險。他們知道歐洲有很多債臺高築的國家，因而不想鼓勵這樣的想法——相關國家可以逃避修復國家財政的艱苦工作，只盼着有一天債務減記會解救他們。目前希臘公共債務佔經濟的比例爲178%——是歐盟債務負擔最重的國家。但是意大利的債務與產出之比也超過了130%。甚至法國也接近100%，這是希臘2009年第一次驚嚇市場時的水平。

There is a similar fear of the political consequences of allowing an anti-austerity party to triumph in Greece. Countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy have all made painful cuts in an effort to restore their public finances. The governments of all four countries have Syriza-style, populist parties breathing down their necks. The last thing they want is for Syriza to be seen to succeed. Indeed, the grim truth is that they actually have a vested interest in seeing Greece suffer — as a warning to their own voters, not to take the route of left-wing populism.

讓一個反緊縮政黨在希臘獲得勝利，其政治後果也令人憂慮。愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等國爲恢復公共財政都採取了痛苦的緊縮措施。這四國的政府都面臨着類似於希臘激進左翼聯盟(Syriza)的民粹主義政黨的虎視眈眈。它們最不希望看到的就是激進左翼聯盟被視爲成功典範。的確，嚴酷的事實在於，利益決定着它們樂於看到希臘受苦受難——以此警告本國選民不要走上左翼民粹主義的道路。

In other EU countries, such as Finland, Germany or the Netherlands, it is right-wingers — who opposed the original bailouts for Greece and warned that the money would never be repaid — that stand to gain if Syriza is seen to triumph. Here too, the political incentives all point towards European leaders taking a hard line.

在芬蘭、德國和荷蘭等其他歐盟國家，如果激進左翼聯盟被視爲勝利，那麼坐收漁利的將是右翼政黨（他們反對當初對希臘的紓困，並警告稱希臘永遠不會償還債務）。這裏也一樣，所有的政治動機都會指向歐洲領導人採取強硬態度。

To these factors must be added sheer irritation. Yanis Varoufakis, who as finance minister compared Greece’s creditors to terrorists, has now resigned. But even Mr Tsipras accused them of being conservative extremists, blackmailing Greece. Just as Greeks feel humiliated to be told they are deadbeats and debtors, so the Germans feel enraged to lend Greece money — only to be called Nazis in the Greek media.

此外還應加上純粹惱怒的因素。把債權人比作恐怖分子的希臘財長亞尼斯•瓦魯法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)已經辭職。但是齊普拉斯本人也曾指責債權人是保守的極端主義分子，勒索希臘。就像希臘人對於被稱爲“無賴”或欠債人感到羞辱一樣，德國人對於把錢借給希臘，到頭來卻被希臘媒體稱爲“納粹”感到義憤填膺。

The danger, however, is that anger and a fear of setting a bad example are leading EU nations to take too narrow a view of the consequences of Greek failure. It may be the EU is right to believe that financial contagion from a Grexit can be contained. But the political costs would be very high. A Greece that slips into economic chaos could easily turn into a failed state within the EU. That, in turn, would further discredit the European project — at a time when it is under pressure from all sides.

然而，危險在於，憤怒以及對於確立糟糕先例的擔憂，將引導歐盟國家對希臘失敗的後果抱有過於狹隘的視野。歐盟相信希臘退出歐元區的金融傳染能夠得到遏制，這或許是對的。但政治代價將非常高。希臘如果滑入經濟混亂，將很容易變成歐盟內的一個失敗國家。這進而將使“歐洲項目”進一步喪失信譽——這項事業正受到各方面的壓力。

If European leaders were thinking clearly, they should see that rather than punishing Greece, it is now in the EU’s interests to do its level best to make sure that Greece can leave the euro, but stay inside the EU with a minimum of pain. If that means giving Greece debt relief as part of the exit package, so be it. Debt relief, in return for Grexit, could make political as well as economic sense.

如果歐洲領導人能想明白，他們應當看到，目前符合歐盟利益的，不是懲罰希臘，而是竭盡全力確保希臘以最少的痛苦離開歐元區，但留在歐盟。如果這意味着對希臘減免債務是退出歐元區方案的一部分，那麼只好如此。以債務減免換取希臘退出歐元區，可能在政治和經濟上都是合情合理的。

Even so, restoring the drachma in Greece without provoking an even more intense economic crisis will be very difficult. But, if it could be done, the EU may finally have a model for liberating other European nations from a malfunctioning euro.

即便如此，希臘也將很難重啓德拉克馬而不引發一場甚至更嚴重的經濟危機。但是，如果這一退出形式可行，那麼歐盟或許終於有了一個將其他歐洲國家從運轉失靈的歐元中解放出來的模式。