中國需求疲軟令鉑 鈀價格承壓

Lower Chinese imports of palladium and platinum are weighing on prices of the precious metals, highlighting weakness in commodities expected to benefit from the country’s shift towards higher consumption.

中國對鈀和鉑的進口下降，給這兩種貴金屬的價格帶來了壓力，突顯出本來有望受益於中國向更高消費轉變的大宗商品的弱勢。

China’s net imports of platinum fell 56 per cent to 2.8 tonnes in February, the lowest level since 2009 according to HSBC. Palladium fared little better, with imports down 54 per cent.

根據匯豐(HSBC)的數據，中國2月份鉑淨進口量下跌56%，至2.8噸，爲2009年以來的最低水平。鈀的狀況也不佳，進口量下跌了54%。

Demand for platinum jewellery in China fell by 1.3 per cent last year and did not recover before the Chinese new year. The metal is popular for wedding rings and China consumed over 60 per cent of the world’s platinum jewellery last year, more than the US, western Europe, Japan, India and the rest of the world combined, according to the World Platinum Investment Council.

中國對鉑金珠寶的需求去年下跌了1.3%，在今年春節前夕也未見起色。鉑金婚戒非常流行，根據全球鉑金投資委員會(World Platinum Investment Council)的統計，去年中國消費了全世界60%以上的鉑金珠寶，超過了美國、西歐、日本、印度和世界其他地方的總和。

The price of platinum fell to a five-year low of $1,087 a troy ounce in March and is now trading at $1,140; palladium is down 4 per cent this year to $765.5.

3月，鉑價一度跌至5年來的低點，至每盎司1087美元，當前的交易價爲每盎司1140美元；鈀價今年迄今下跌了4%，目前爲每盎司765.5美元。

While the import drop can be explained by the Chinese new year holiday, Macquarie estimates that January and February imports for platinum were the lowest in any two-month period since October 2010. Aggregating the two months for palladium shows they were down 38 per cent, said the bank.

雖然進口量下跌可以通過春節來解釋，但麥格理(Macquarie)估計，今年1、2月的鉑進口量是2010年10月以來任何兩個月期間最低的。該銀行表示，這兩個月鉑進口量總計下降了38%。

For palladium, the drop comes despite growth in gasoline car sales that require catalysts using the metal. The Chinese car fleet is also newer than in developed markets, meaning less supply of recycled palladium from older catalysts.

至於鈀，儘管需要使用這種金屬爲催化劑的汽油車銷量上升，儘管中國保有的汽車比發達市場更新意味着，從舊車的汽車催化劑回收的鈀的供應量較少，但其進口量依然下降。

A doubling of the number of cars on China’s roads over the next five years is expected to underpin palladium demand along with tightening emissions standards, according to Barclays.

根據巴克萊(Barclays)的預測，未來5年期間中國的汽車數量將會翻番，加上排放標準收緊，預計這些因素將支撐對鈀的需求。

China’s car sales rose in the first two months of the year, with deliveries of passenger cars for the retail market increasing by 16 per cent to 3.49m units in January and February, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

今年頭兩個月中國汽車銷量上升。根據全國乘用車市場信息聯席會(China Passenger Car Association)的數據，1月和2月零售市場的乘用車交付量上升了16%，至349萬輛。

“For palladium the low import figure is also concerning, reinforcing the confusing trend for Chinese palladium imports to fail to respond to (much more positive) trends in Chinese car production,” Macquarie said.

“鈀的進口數據走低也令人擔憂，這使中國鈀進口趨勢未能響應中國汽車生產（積極得多）的趨勢更加令人困惑，”麥格理表示。

One theory according to analysts is that Russian supply of palladium in different forms is going to China. The country’s Norilsk Nickel is the world’s largest palladium producer, and prices for palladium rose last year amid fears over the situation with Ukraine and Russian sanctions.

分析師們給出的一種解釋是，俄羅斯以不同形式供應的鈀流入了中國。俄羅斯的諾里爾斯克鎳業公司(Norilsk Nickel)是世界最大的鈀生產商，去年因市場擔憂烏克蘭局勢和俄羅斯遭制裁，鈀價一度上升。