中國通脹降至5年最低點 中國增長疲軟

Chinese consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in almost five years in September, the latest sign of flagging growth that may encourage Beijing to adopt further targeted easing measures.

9月份中國居民消費價格指數(CPI)出現了近五年內的最低漲幅，是中國增長疲軟的最新表象，或將刺激中國政府採取進一步定向寬鬆舉措。

The consumer price index rose 1.8 per cent year-on-year in September, down from 2 per cent growth in August and at its slowest pace since August 2010.

今年9月，中國CPI指數同比上漲1.8%，漲幅低於8月份的2%，是2010年8月以來的最低漲幅。

The producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, also fell 1.8 per cent, compared with the 1.6 per cent fall forecast in a Reuters poll, the 31st consecutive month of declines.

9月，基於商品批發價格的生產者價格指數(PPI)同比下跌了1.8%，低於路透社(Reuters)在調查中給出的下跌1.6%的預期，是該指數連續第31個月下跌。

“It’s a very low reading. We have a decline in core inflation, which shows that it’s not just food prices declining. There is a generalised softness of domestic demand. This is consistent with weakening growth,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, Asia economist for Crédit Agricole.

法國農業信貸銀行(Crédit Agricole)亞洲經濟學家達利烏斯•科瓦爾奇克(Dariusz Kowalczyk)表示：“這樣的通脹指數確實很低。核心通脹率正在下降，表明不僅僅是食品價格出現了下跌。目前國內需求普遍疲軟，這與疲弱的經濟增長勢頭相一致。”

“Policy makers in Beijing should begin to be concerned that global disinflationary pressures are spreading to China.”

“全球通縮壓力正在向中國蔓延，北京的決策者也應該開始擔心這個問題了。”

Core consumer inflation fell from 1.6 per cent in August to 1.5 per cent in September, while growth in food prices fell from 3 per cent to 2.3 per cent.

核心消費者通脹率從8月份的1.6%降至9月份的1.5%。與此同時，食品價格漲幅從3%降至2.3%。

On the manufacturing side, cooling property sales have rippled through the economy this year, hitting demand for building materials such as copper and cement as developers slow new construction. Steel prices in some areas of China are now as cheap as cabbage.

在生產方面，今年房地產銷售的降溫波及到整個中國經濟。隨着開發商新建樓盤增長放緩，中國對銅和混凝土等建材的需求大受打擊。如今，在中國部分地區，鋼鐵已經跌至白菜價。

The weak property market also affected consumer prices through the housing component, which tracks rental prices. Transport prices, another component of CPI, contracted because of falling global oil prices.

由於疲弱的樓市導致房租下滑，也影響了消費者價格指數。此外，由於全球油價下跌，CPI指數的另一個成分——交通運輸價格——也出現了下跌。

China will announce data on third-quarter gross domestic product next Wednesday. Consensus forecasts are for year-on-year growth of 7.2 per cent. That would be a 5½-year low and below the government’s 2014 growth target of 7.5 per cent.

下週三，中國將公佈三季度國內生產總值(GDP)數據。市場預計三季度GDP將同比增長7.2%。這將是5年半以來的最低增速，也低於中國政府爲2014年全年設定的7.5%的增長目標。

The government has launched a string of targeted monetary and fiscal stimulus measures this year, including lower reserve ratios for small banks, direct loans from the central bank to large state-owned lenders, and easing of rules on mortgage lending.

中國政府已啓動了一系列貨幣和財政定向刺激舉措，其中包括降低小型銀行的存款準備金率、央行對大型國有銀行直接發放貸款、以及放寬按揭貸款門檻。

The latest CPI figures could make additional easing measures more likely, although Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly said that the government will not launch a broad-based stimulus that could exacerbate existing distortions in the economy.

中國總理李克強曾反覆重申，中國政府不會推出大範圍刺激措施，因爲這會加重中國經濟中的結構性問題。儘管如此，最新發布的CPI數據，卻令中國推出進一步寬鬆舉措的可能性大大增加。

On Tuesday the central bank lowered the interest rate on its 14-day bond repurchase agreements, a key benchmark for short-term funding costs.

週二，中國央行(PBoC)再次下調了14天正回購利率。14天正回購利率是市場中短期資金成本的重要基準指標。

“The government has stepped up policy easing and we continue to expect one 50 basis point bank reserve requirement ratio cut per quarter from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015,” analysts from Nomura wrote on Wednesday.

野村證券(Nomura)分析師週三在一份報告中寫道：“中國政府加大了政策寬鬆力度。從2014年第四季度到2015年第四季度，我們預計會繼續看到銀行存款準備金率每季度下調50個基點。”

One-year interest-rate swaps based on the seven-day repo rate hit 3.08 per cent on Wednesday, the lowest level since February 2013, suggesting that money-market traders expect the repo rate to remain at low levels.

週三，基於7天回購利率的一年期利率互換跌至3.08%。這是2013年2月以來的最低水平，表明貨幣市場的交易人員預計回購利率會維持在低位不變。