人民幣邁向國際化的關鍵一步
The International Monetary Fund will hold discussions in May and make a decision in November on whether to add the Chinese renminbi to the four currencies it uses to value its Special Drawing Right (SDR), the international reserve asset created by the Fund.
China is keen for this to happen, as the deputy governor of its central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), reiterated at a press conference in Beijing on Thursday. There is a snag: the renminbi is not and may never be a convertible currency, which is a standard pre-requisite of a reserve currency. But as David Lubin of Citi Research argues in a note also published on Thursday, that consideration is likely to be put aside.
中國渴望將人民幣納入SDR，正如中國人民銀行(PBOC)副行長易綱3月12日上週四在北京召開的記者招待會上重申的那樣。一個潛在的障礙是，人民幣現在不是、並且可能永遠也無法成爲可兌換貨幣，而這正是成爲儲備貨幣的標準前提。但正如花旗研究(Citi Research)的戴維•盧賓(David Lubin)在一份同樣於上週四發表的報告中所指出的那樣，這方面的顧慮可能被擱置一旁。China’s share of global exports has continued to grow since it overtook the US as the world’s biggest exporter in 2007. The renminbi is used to settle almost a quarter of China’s current account transactions.
自2007年取代美國成爲全球最大出口國以來，中國在全球出口中的份額持續增長。中國近四分之一的經常賬戶交易是用人民幣結算的。
To be sure, in terms of world payments processed by SWIFT, the renminbi is still tiny compared with the US dollar, the euro and even sterling. But it is not much smaller than the yen and recently overtook the Canadian dollar to become the fifth most used currency. Also, even if by a wide margin, it is the second most used currency in trade finance.
誠然，就環球銀行金融電信協會(SWIFT)處理的全球支付交易而言，與美元、歐元、甚至英鎊相比，人民幣仍微不足道，但它不比日元差多少，而且在最近超過加拿大元，成爲全球第五大常用貨幣。此外，人民幣還是貿易融資中的第二大常用貨幣，儘管比排第一位的美元落後一大截。So China has already made great strides in its ambition to make the renminbi an international currency. It is no small ambition. Success would not only reduce funding costs for Chinese companies and help them expand overseas; it would also support the creation of a Sino-centric financial order to challenge the western-dominated Breton Woods institutions set up after World War II.
因此，中國在人民幣國際化的抱負上已經取得了巨大的進展。這種抱負不小。如果取得成功的話，它不僅會降低中國企業的融資成本，並幫助它們海外擴張；而且還會對創立一個以中國爲核心的金融秩序起支持作用，來挑戰在二戰後創立、由西方主導的佈雷頓森林體系。How would inclusion in the SDR basket advance China’s progress to its goal? As Lubin notes, adding the renminbi to the dollar, euro, yen and sterling in the SDR basket would not put any obligation on central banks actually to hold renminbi among their reserves, although it would give any bank holding SDRs an implicit exposure to the renminbi.
將人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子會如何推動中國實現其目標？正如盧賓指出的那樣，將人民幣像美元、歐元、日元和英鎊一樣納入SDR貨幣籃子，並不會強制各國央行實際持有人民幣作爲儲備，儘管這會讓持有SDR的銀行間接持有人民幣。Significantly, however, inclusion in the SDR basket would allow the renminbi to sidestep the convertibility criterion for a reserve currency. As Lubin notes, IMF rules state that “reserve assets must be denominated and settled in convertible foreign currencies…” Under that rule, central banks that currently hold renminbi cannot report them as part of their foreign reserves. But if the renminbi joined the SDR basket, it would automatically and by definition become a reserve currency – in all likelihood, Lubin reckons, precipitating a change in the IMF’s rules.
然而，重要的是，納入SDR貨幣籃子將讓人民幣繞過儲備貨幣所必須滿足的可兌換標準。正如盧賓所指出的那樣，按照IMF的規定，“儲備資產必須由可兌換的外國貨幣計價和結算……”根據此規定，當前持有人民幣的央行不能將之報告爲外匯儲備的一部分。但如果人民幣加入SDR貨幣籃子，它就會按照定義自動成爲一種儲備貨幣——盧賓估計，這多半會促使IMF的規則發生調整。If so, central banks would be free to hold renminbi as part of their reserves. This would mark a huge step forward for China’s strategic aims. Rubin writes:
若果真如此，各國央行將能自由地將人民幣作爲外匯儲備的一部分。這將標誌着中國的戰略目標取得巨大進展。Creating RMB liabilities is really the only way in which China can advance its goal of internationalising its currency, and the persistence of China’s trade surplus means that it is difficult to create net RMB liabilities through the current account of the balance of payments. As a result, China needs to rely on capital transactions to achieve its goal, and inclusion in the SDR basket is an important way of achieving this…
盧賓寫道：“創造人民幣債務實際上是中國推進其人民幣國際化目標的唯一途徑，而中國持續貿易順差意味着，它很難通過國際收支中的經常賬戶來創造人民幣淨債務。因此，中國需要依賴資本交易來實現其目標，將人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子是實現這一點的重要途徑……”Of greater significance, however, is the change implied in the global financial order were the renminbi to join the SDR basket. Lubin quotes a well-known speech of 2009 by the governor of the PBoC arguing that the SDR should become the centre of gravity of the international monetary order, functioning as a “super-sovereign reserve currency” that would be “disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country”. China, then, would share a central role in a system hitherto dominated overwhelmingly by the US dollar.
然而，更重要的是，如果人民幣加入SDR貨幣籃子，它意味着全球金融秩序的改變。盧賓提到了中國人民銀行行長周小川在2009年的一場著名演講，當時周小川表示，SDR應該成爲國際貨幣秩序的重心，作爲一種“超主權儲備貨幣”，“超脫於任何一國的經濟狀況和利益”。中國將在一個迄今由美元佔據壓倒性主導地位的體系中分享核心角色。What are the renminbi’s chances of inclusion? The IMF, Lubin notes, has two criteria: a country’s share in global exports; and whether its currency is “freely usable”.
人民幣進入SDR貨幣籃子的機會有多大？盧賓指出，IMF有兩個標準：一個是一國佔全球出口的份額，另一個是其貨幣是否“可自由使用”。As shown above, the renminbi meets the first of those conditions by a wide margin. The second condition – the IMF’s own rules notwithstanding – is not the same as being “freely convertible”. One of the tests to determine whether a currency is freely usable, Lubin notes, is whether it is “widely traded”. Here, too, the rebminbi appears to qualify. What’s more, Lubin writes, “the IMF makes it clear that the decision to include the RMB in the SDR is not a box-ticking exercise: judgment will be required.”
正如上文講述的那樣，人民幣大大超出了第一個標準。第二個標準（儘管是IMF自己制定的規則）並不等同於“可自由兌換”。盧賓指出，決定一國貨幣是否可自由使用的標準之一是，它是否“被廣泛交易”。從這一點來說，人民幣似乎也是符合的。此外，盧賓寫道：“IMF明確表示，將人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子的決定不是打鉤練習：它將需要判斷。”As Simon Mundy reported for the FT, also on Thursday, Samsung Electronics has outlined plans to start trading renminbi in South Korea, in a bid to cash in on China’s drive for internationalisation. The renminbi’s long march is looking unstoppable.
正如西蒙•芒迪(Simon Mundy)上週四爲英國《金融時報》報道的那樣，爲了利用中國的人民幣國際化努力，三星電子(Samsung Electronics)已經草擬了開始在韓國交易人民幣的計劃。人民幣國際化的漫長征途看起來勢不可擋。
