美國最賺錢的企業 依然是油企

It is stunning that Apple managed to sell 74m smartphones in the fourth quarter of last year. The resulting profit, $18bn, is unfathomably large. At the same time, though, it is not a surprise that Apple is the most profitable company in the world. The influence of its products is immense. We live in an age of information, mobility and connectivity. Apple is the company for our times and so it seems natural that it should make the most money.

蘋果(Apple)去年第四季度7400萬部智能手機的銷售業績着實令人震驚。由此產生的180億美元的鉅額利潤超出了人們的想象。但與此同時，蘋果是世界上最賺錢的公司並不令人感到意外。蘋果產品的影響力非常大。我們生活在一個信息、移動和互聯的時代。蘋果正是應運而生的公司，所以它最賺錢似乎是理所當然的。

In that context it is striking to consider the companies that have led the US profits table over the past six decades.

在這種背景下，分析過去60年引領美國利潤表的公司是非常有趣的事情。

At one end, Apple; at the other, General Motors. Between them, a gradual transformation of the US corporate landscape. In the 1950s, the fattest profits were stamped out by manufacturers and heavy industry; the scene today is more raucous, with technology, healthcare, finance and telecoms among the biggest earners. And through the years in between, a single wide streak of continuity: huge profits at the oil groups.

榜單的一頭是蘋果，而另一頭是通用汽車(General Motors)。在它們中間的公司則體現了美國企業格局的逐步轉變。上世紀50年代，製造業企業和重工業創造了最豐厚的利潤；現在的榜單更加多元化，科技、醫療、金融以及電信行業都加入了最賺錢企業之列。而在這些年裏，唯一始終不變的是依然賺取鉅額利潤的石油集團。

Looking down a list of the 10 most profitable companies in the S&P 500 for each of the past 60 years, the continuity is astonishing. From 1955 to 1961 the list barely changes. It is topped by General Motors, its rivalFord is somewhere on it, and the rest is a mix of big oil — Exxon, Texaco, Chevron, Mobil, Gulf Oil — and industrial groups.

看一下過去60年裏每年標普500指數(S&P 500)成分股中10家最賺錢公司的榜單，就會發現驚人的連續性。從1955年至1961年，這個榜單幾乎沒有變化。通用汽車位居榜首，其競爭對手福特汽車(Ford)也在其中，其餘的是石油巨頭——埃克森(Exxon)、德士古(Texaco)、雪佛龍(Chevron)、美孚(Mobil)和海灣石油公司(Gulf Oil)——和工業集團。

Then, in 1961, comes the first sign that the US and, in lockstep, the global economy is changing:International Business Machines squeaks on to the list. The company had been producing transistor-based (rather than switch- or vacuum-tube based) computers for a few years, and had already invented disc-based random-access memory. But IBM’s appearance on the list is not just a moment for technology. It is a milestone in the ascendancy of informational labour — as opposed to the physical work of manufacturing. IBM computers were being used to run airline reservation systems. Its Selectric typewriter had just been introduced.

接下來在1961年，首次有跡象表明美國經濟以及與其步調一致的全球經濟正在發生變革：IBM躋身最賺錢公司的名單之列。當時IBM生產晶體管(而非基於開關或真空管的)電腦已有數年時間，併發明瞭可隨機訪問的磁盤存儲器。但IBM出現在名單上不僅僅代表着科技時代的來臨，它也是信息化勞動相對於製造業體力勞動獲得優勢的一個里程碑。當時，IBM的電腦被用於運行航空訂票系統，而該公司的Selectric電動打字機纔剛剛問世。

The following 25 years are strikingly consistent. The motor industry, oil and industrials dominate the list with IBM. Only three companies break this pattern. In 1967, Eastman Kodak appears at number 9. In 1970, the conglomerate craze (the flip side of today’s break-up fever) shows up briefly, in the form of ITT — telecom, hotel operator, bread baker and industrial manufacturer. AT&T cracks the top 10 in 1985, after the government dismantled its monopoly in US telephony.

隨後的25年展現了驚人的連續性。汽車、石油以及工業企業與IBM共同主宰榜單。只有3家公司打破了這種局面。1967年，伊士曼柯達公司(Eastman Kodak)出現在第9位。1970年，組建企業集團的熱潮（如今拆分熱的另一面）風靡一時，典型代表是美國國際電話電報公司(ITT)，旗下業務包括電信、酒店運營、麪包店以及工業製造。在美國政府打破其在電話服務行業的壟斷地位之後，AT&T於1985年跌出了前10名的榜單。

The real moment of change comes in 1986, when two pure consumer goods companies reach the top tier. Philip Morris (now Altria) and Nabisco — tobacco and biscuits — take the number seven and 10 spots. Five years later the top 10 looks dramatically different than it did in 1955. Merck and Bristol-Myers reflect the growing importance of healthcare while Coca-Cola andProcter & Gamble join Altria and underline the strength of the consumer economy.

真正變革的時刻出現在1986年，當時兩家純消費品企業進入了前10名。後來改名爲奧馳亞(Altria)的菸草公司菲利普莫里斯(Philip Morris)和餅乾生產商納貝斯科(Nabisco)分別佔據第7位和第10位。5年之後，位列前10名的公司與1955年相比已發生巨大變化。製藥公司默克(Merck)和百時美施貴寶(Bristol-Myers Squibb)的上榜反映了醫療保健的重要性日益上升，而可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和寶潔公司(Procter & Gamble)與奧馳亞一起上榜則突顯出消費經濟的力量。

It is tempting to draw a line from the state of the economy or the world at large to the state of corporate profitability. But companies have a life of their own. Mergers, for example, have as much to do with where profits accumulate as which industries are rising or falling. It is easy to point to “the rise of the American consumer” but the US was already a consumer economy in the 1950s with household expenditures accounting for well over half of output.

人們會忍不住認爲美國經濟乃至整個世界經濟的狀況與企業盈利能力狀況存在關聯。但是企業有其自身的生命週期。例如，公司合併既與利潤積累相關，也與行業的崛起或衰落有關。人們很容易認爲這是“美國消費者崛起”的結果，但美國在上世紀50年代就已經是消費經濟，那時家庭支出佔到社會總產出的一半以上。

That said, manufacturing accounted for almost 30 per cent of US GDP at the time. Now it is 12 per cent while finance, professional services and healthcare have gone from 7 per cent to 21 per cent.

話雖如此，但當時製造業對美國國內生產總值(GDP)的貢獻比例接近30%。現在這一比例爲12%，而金融、專業服務和醫療的比例已經從7%提高到21%。

In the past 20 years there have been, three important additions to the list. First, personal computing, as represented by Intel and Microsoft (1993 and 1999 respectively). Second, Walmart (2002) — a perfect example of how industrial, alongside economic and technological changes, can influence company profits. Retail was no less important to the US economy in the 1950s than it is today; but Walmart’s cost-cutting strategy has insured that more of the industry’s profits are captured by a small number of companies.

在過去20年間，榜單上又出現了3個重要的變化。首先是以由英特爾(Intel)和微軟(Microsoft)爲代表的個人計算機行業，兩家公司分別在1993年和1999年上榜。其次是於2002年上榜的沃爾瑪(Walmart)——這是行業變革（與經濟及技術變革一起）影響公司利潤的一個完美案例。零售業在上世紀50年代對美國經濟的重要性不亞於今天，但沃爾瑪削減成本的戰略保證了該行業的多數利潤由少數幾家公司把持。

Perhaps most significant was the appearance of the banks. Citigroup was the most profitable company in the US in 2002, just six years before the financial crisis.

或許最重要的變化是銀行出現在榜單之列。花旗集團(Citigroup)是2002年美國最賺錢的公司，此時距金融危機爆發僅有6年時間。

But if there is one thing that should give us pause, it is the ubiquity of the oil companies at, or near, the top of the profitability rankings. Exxon and Chevron appeared on the 1955 list, and six decades later they remain.

但如果有一件事值得我們深思的話，那就是石油公司普遍處於（或接近）盈利能力排名的頂端。埃克森和雪佛龍出現在1955年的榜單上，而60年後它們依然榜上有名。

As much as the world has changed over the past 60 years, it still runs on oil.

不管世界在過去60年發生了多麼大的變化，它仍然要依賴石油運轉。