俄企業依賴中國貸款 美國製裁效果待觀察

MOSCOW — With the latest round of sanctions against Russia, the United States Treasury Department said it had “increased the cost of economic isolation for key Russian firms,” like the state oil company Rosneft and the banking arm of the natural gas giant Gazprom.

莫斯科——隨着針對俄羅斯的最新一輪制裁出爐，美國財政部表示，此舉已“提高了俄羅斯關鍵企業經濟孤立的代價”。這些企業包括：國有油企俄羅斯石油公司（Rosneft，簡稱俄油），以及天然氣巨頭俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司（Gazprom，簡稱俄氣）旗下的銀行。

The isolation, though, does not extend to the companies’ growing reliance on Chinese lending, a trend in the Russian natural resources industry that will blunt the effect of sanctions aimed at the finances of Russian oil companies.

不過，這種孤立並未觸及這些企業對中國貸款越來越深的依賴。在俄羅斯自然資源行業中出現的這一趨勢，將削弱針對該國油氣企業融資能力的制裁的效力。

Energy companies form the backbone of the Russian economy. If oil and gas are taken together, they export more energy than Saudi Arabia, and that money props up the military of President Vladimir V. Putin. Rosneft is the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, pumping about 4.1 million barrels daily.

能源企業構成了俄羅斯經濟的中流砥柱。該國油氣合計的能源出口量超越了沙特阿拉伯，而由此帶來的收入支撐了總統弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)的軍力。俄油是世界上最大的上市油企，日產量約爲410萬桶。

Given the gigantic outlays for drilling wells and building pipelines in the Siberian wilderness, such companies rely deeply on cheap sources of capital. The Chinese have been willing to oblige.

考慮到在西伯利亞荒野之中鑽井及鋪設管線的鉅額成本，這些企業嚴重依賴廉價的資金來源。在這方面，中國人一直樂於配合。

“We absolutely don’t expect any impact on the operations or finances of Rosneft or Novatek,” another Russian energy company hit with sanctions on Wednesday, said Pavel Kushnir, an oil and gas analyst at Deutsche Bank in Russia.

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)駐俄羅斯油氣分析師帕維爾·庫什尼爾(Pavel Kushnir)表示，“我們認爲，俄油或諾瓦泰克(Novatek)的運營和融資絕不會受到任何影響。”諾瓦泰克是週三列入制裁名單的又一家俄羅斯能源企業。

“There is a possibility the Chinese banks will try to increase the cost of financing to take advantage of the situation, but this is just speculation,” he said. “I think it will have no impact.”

“有一種可能性是，中國的銀行會利用當前局勢來試圖擡升融資成本，不過這只是猜測而已，”他說。“我想，不會有任何影響。”

The sanctions were so narrowly focused that some financial analysts in Moscow saw them as largely symbolic. The broader significance, they say, was mostly an implied threat of broader measures to come, should the crisis drag on.

制裁措施針對的範疇十分有限，因此莫斯科的一些分析人士認爲，它們在很大程度上是象徵性的。他們表示，更大的意義基本在於，發出隱含的威脅信號：倘若危機拖延下去，更多制裁將接踵而至。

“What is most important is the sentiment,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist with BCS Financial Group, a Moscow brokerage firm. “If the situation doesn’t improve around Ukraine, which doesn’t seem very likely, there could be another sanction. That will affect risk premium around all new debt issues.”

“最重要的是市場情緒，”莫斯科經紀公司BCS金融集團(BCS Financial Group)的首席經濟師弗拉基米爾·蒂霍米羅夫(Vladimir Tikhomirov)說。“如果烏克蘭局勢沒有改善——似乎不太可能——就還會有新的制裁。那樣就會影響到與所有新債務問題有關的風險溢價。”

The third round of sanctions did cross a new line by focusing on large publicly traded enterprises in major sectors of the Russian economy. The latest measures prohibit American banks and investors from proffering loans with a maturation of more than 90 days to four Russian companies — Rosneft, Novatek, Gazprombank and VEB, the state foreign trade bank.

第三輪制裁的確有所突破，針對的是俄羅斯主要經濟部門的大型上市企業。這些最新的制裁措施規定，禁止美國銀行及投資者向四家俄羅斯公司提供期限超過90天的貸款。這四家企業分別是：俄油、諾瓦泰克、俄羅斯天然氣工業銀行(Gazprombank)，以及該國的對外經貿銀行——開發與外經銀行(VEB)。

The move weighed broadly on Russian stocks. Shares in Rosneft were down 4.3 percent. The Russian Micex, which had climbed back from its losses after the first round of sanctions in March, was off 2.6 percent.

此舉重創了俄羅斯股市。俄油的股價下跌了4.3%。俄羅斯Micex指數本已從首輪制裁後的低谷恢復元氣，但此次下挫了2.6%。

And the fallout could prove substantial for some on the new list. Among the eight military industrial companies banned from doing business with Americans was the Kalashnikov Concern, the maker of AK assault rifles and their civilian variants, called Saigas, which are popular in the United States. In recent years, about 30 percent of the factory’s output has been sold in the United States, the world’s largest civilian gun market.

對新制裁名單上的一些公司而言，後果可能會相當嚴重。在禁止與美國進行業務來往的八家軍工企業中，就有卡拉什尼科夫集團(Kalashnikov Concern)。該公司是AK突擊步槍及其民用版本賽加(Saiga)的生產商。後者在美國市場上頗受歡迎。近些年來，公司產量的30%左右銷往美國這一世界第一大的民用槍支市場。

The Kalashnikov factory’s parent company, Rostec, issued a statement lamenting the sanctions’ “negative effect on cooperation between a number of Russian and American companies, and threat to tear apart the common trust.”

卡拉什尼科夫集團的母公司俄羅斯技術集團公司(Rostec)發表聲明，抱怨制裁“對多家俄羅斯與美國企業之間的合作造成負面影響，並可能撕裂雙方的互信”。

While the latest sanctions are not likely to inflict deep pain, Rosneft and other Russian energy companies may have to get more creative about their financing needs. China, for one, has proved a good source of funds in the past.

儘管最新一輪的制裁不太可能造成巨大的痛苦，但俄油等俄羅斯能源企業或許不得不在滿足自身的融資需求上更富創意。比如，中國過去已證明是個不錯的資金來源地。

Rosneft has repeatedly turned to Chinese lending during periods of tension with the West including taking a $6 billion loan from the Chinese in 2005 to buy Yukos assets. At the end of the first quarter this year, Rosneft reported $41 billion in commercial debt owed to mostly Western banks and $25 billion in funds received as prepayment for future oil deliveries, of which analysts estimate about $20 billion is Chinese financing.

在與西方關係緊張的時期，俄油曾反覆轉向中國借貸。比如2005年，俄油從中國貸款60億美元（當時約合490億元人民幣），來收購尤科斯石油公司(Yukos)的資產。今年第一季度末，俄油通報欠有410億美元（約合2540億元人民幣）的商業債務，債主多數爲西方銀行，另有250億美元爲石油預付款。分析人士估計，其中約有200億美元是來自中國的融資。

Rosneft has not disclosed details of the Chinese prepayment agreement, or its upper limit. But Mr. Kushnir, the Deutsche Bank analyst, noted that last fall Rosneft retired some Western bank debt with prepayment funds most likely from Chinese sources, suggesting the terms are at least competitive with commercial loans.

俄油沒有披露與中國之間的預付款協議的細節，或是其金額上限。不過，德意志銀行的分析師庫什尼指出，去年秋季，俄油用預付款償還了欠西方銀行的部分債務，而這些預付款很可能來自中國。這表明，預付款的條件至少與商貸差不多優惠。

During a state visit of Mr. Putin to China in May, Novatek, the other energy company placed under sanctions on Wednesday, secured Chinese financing to build a liquefied natural gas plant at Sabetta on the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic Ocean, intended to supply Asian markets by crossing thawing Arctic shipping lanes. During that visit, Gazprom also negotiated a prepayment for future sales to China.

普京今年5月對中國進行了國事訪問，期間諾瓦泰克與中方達成協議，將利用其資金在北冰洋亞馬爾半島的薩貝爾港建造一座液化天然氣工廠。這座工廠意在利用北冰洋逐漸融化的貨運航線來向亞洲市場供氣。本週三，諾瓦泰克成爲被列入制裁名單的又一家能源企業。在普京的那次訪問期間，俄氣也與中國談成了一項未來供氣的預付款協議。

If sanctions widen, though, Rosneft and others may find their position more challenging.

然而，假如制裁進一步擴大，俄油等企業或許會發現自身的處境愈發艱難。

Rosneft, Mr. Tikhomirov said, will inevitably pay higher rates if European banks follow the cue from the United States and the company is eventually cut off from the dollar bond market, the most liquid globally.

蒂霍米羅夫認爲，倘若歐洲的銀行按美國的指示行事，俄油又最終被全球流動性最強的美元債券市場排除在外，它就不可避免地要付出更高的利息。

That could complicate a number of Rosneft’s major projects in the works, like plans to drill in the Arctic, and to buy Morgan Stanley’s oil unit. “It will have to manage its balance by either cutting costs, or deciding not to pursue projects,” Mr. Tikhomirov said.

那樣的話，可能會讓俄油正在進行的多個大型項目複雜化，包括在北冰洋鑽探和收購摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)石油部門的計劃。“俄油將不得不保障自身的收支平衡，要麼削減成本，要麼做出停止項目的決定，”蒂霍米羅夫說。