中國爲何未受益於美元走強

An era of cheap oil and dollar strength should prove a boon for a country that imports shiploads of commodities and wants exports to cushion a growth slowdown.

對一個進口大量大宗商品、並希望用出口緩衝經濟增長放緩的國家，油價低廉和美元走強的時代本來應該是一大福音。

That China, the world’s second-biggest economy and itself facing slower growth, is only a minor beneficiary illustrates the extent of Beijing’s foot-dragging on a 2013 pledge to hand markets a “decisive” role in price-setting.

作爲世界第二大經濟體、而且自身正面臨經濟增長放緩的中國卻受益甚少，這顯示出，在履行2013年作出的讓市場扮演定價“決定性”角色的承諾方面，中國政府沒有取得多少進展。

Take oil. China is the world’s biggest importer but price controls mean the 50 per cent slide in Brent prices since June shrinks to just half that level in China.

以石油爲例。中國是全球最大的石油進口國，但由於實行價格管制，雖然自去年6月以來布倫特(Brent)原油價格下跌50%，但在中國，油價跌幅卻縮小至只有25%。

Similarly on the currency: while China ditched the renminbi’s peg to the dollar nearly a decade ago, it continues to shadow the greenback. Last year it fell 2.4 per cent against the dollar. Though large by Chinese standards, the decline paled in comparison with the 12.1 per cent fall in the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index.

人民幣同樣如此：儘管中國在近十年前放棄了人民幣盯住美元的匯率政策，但它繼續與美元亦步亦趨。去年，人民幣兌美元匯率下跌2.4%。儘管按中國人的標準來看，這種跌幅確實很大，但它和摩根大通新興市場貨幣指數(JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index)下跌12.1%相比則不值一提。

Ma Guangyuan, a Beijing-based economist, says Chinese authorities know that “the dollar’s appreciation does more bad than good for emerging economies”, which is why they have not permitted the renminbi to fall too sharply.

北京經濟學家馬光遠表示，中國當局知道，“美元升值對新興經濟體來說弊大於利”，這就是他們不允許人民幣匯率急劇下跌的原因。

Tom Miller at Gavekal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based consultancy, believes Beijing has learnt that its needs are best served by a strong currency, which reduces the price of its commodities imports, gives consumers more bang for their buck and forces low-end exporters up the value chain.

北京諮詢公司龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的湯姆•米勒(Tom Miller)認爲，北京方面已經明白，強勢人民幣最能滿足中國的需要——它降低了大宗商品進口價格，讓消費者手中的錢買到更多實惠，並迫使低端出口商向價值鏈上方攀爬。

However, “it [also] serves grander geopolitical ambitions”, he says. “China’s vision of itself as a great power in Asia requires it to maintain an anchor currency that can be relied upon to retain its store of value and provide stability amid a sea of uncertainty.”

然而，米勒表示：“它（也）有利於更爲宏大的地緣政治抱負。中國有意成爲亞洲地區的大國，這需要它保持一種“貨幣錨”(currency anchor)屬性，作爲一種可信賴並維持價值儲藏功能的貨幣，在衆多不確定性當中提供穩定性。”

The strong dollar will add to pressure on the People’s Bank of China to ease monetary policy in an attempt to counteract the impact of capital outflows.

美元走強將加大壓力，促使中國人民銀行(PBOC)放鬆貨幣政策以抵消資本外流的影響。

Though modest, currency depreciation has quashed longstanding expectations that the renminbi was a one-way bet and deterred speculative inflows from investors hoping to earn risk-free profits.

人民幣貶值幅度雖然不大，但已經消除了長期以來對人民幣是一種單邊押注的預期，並阻止了希望獲得無風險利潤的投資者的投機性資本流入。

Expectations of interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve, combined with a rate cut by China’s central bank, have also reduced the attractiveness of carry trades in which investors borrow dollars at low rates to invest in higher-yielding renminbi assets.

美聯儲(Fed)加息預期再加上中國央行降息，也降低了套息交易（以低利率借入美元，然後投資於高收益的人民幣資產）的吸引力。

China experienced two consecutive quarters of financial outflows in the second and third quarters of 2014, according to the latest balance of payments data, the first such streak since 2012.

中國最新發布的國際收支數據顯示，中國在2014年第二季度和第三季度連續兩個季度出現資本外流，這是自2012年以來首次出現這種情況。

To counteract the monetary contraction caused by capital outflows, analysts expect at least two cuts in the required reserve ratio (RRR) for banks this year, which will help replenish the supply of base money lost to capital outflow.

分析師們預計，爲了抵消資本外流導致的貨幣緊縮效果，中國今年至少會兩次下調銀行存款準備金率，這將有助於補充因資本外流而損失的基礎貨幣供應。

“The PBoC is expected to adopt an easing bias to keep monetary policy ‘appropriate’ — including using various liquidity facilities and RRR cuts to offset drainage from FX outflows,” wrote Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, in a note this week.

瑞銀(UBS)中國經濟學家汪濤在本週發佈的一份研究報告中表示：“預計中國人民銀行將會傾向於寬鬆政策以保持貨幣政策‘適當’，包括使用不同的流動性工具和降低存款準備金率以抵消外匯資金外流的影響。”

Lower inflation because of falling oil prices will allow authorities more space to ease policy. On trade, the stronger dollar should provide a modest boost to Chinese exports this year, at a time when a slowdown in investment is dragging on growth.

因油價下跌導致的通脹下降將讓有關當局有更多空間實施寬鬆政策。就貿易而言，在投資放緩拖累經濟增長之際，美元升值今年應該會溫和提振中國出口。

“The strong dollar may lead to further moderate depreciation in 2015. That’s going to help the economy export its excess manufacturing output from overcapacity industries,” says Hong Hao, managing director for research at Bocom International Holdings, the international brokerage arm of Bank of Communications, China’s fifth-largest lender.

交銀國際控股(Bocom International Holdings)負責研究部門的董事總經理洪灝表示：“美元強勢可能導致人民幣在2015年進一步小幅貶值。這將有助於中國出口產能過剩行業的多餘製造業產出。”交銀國際是中國第五大銀行交通銀行(Bank of Communications)旗下的國際經紀部門。

China customs data yesterday showed the largest annual merchandise trade surplus on record in 2014, with the three largest monthly surpluses on record all coming since August.

中國海關昨日發佈的數據顯示，2014年年度貿易順差創出有記錄以來的最高水平，3個月度貿易順差最高的月份全都出自去年8月以來。

China’s current account surplus — the broadest measure of trade in goods and services — fell for four of the five years from 2009 to 2013, exerting a drag on overall gross domestic product growth.

在從2009年到2013年的5年時間裏，中國經常賬戶盈餘有4年出現下降，拖累了整個國內生產總值(GDP)的增長。經常賬戶是衡量商品和服務貿易的最廣泛的指標。

But the surplus rose 10 per cent in the first three quarters of 2014 from a year earlier, and full-year GDP figures out this month are almost certain to show a positive contribution to growth from net exports — a trend economists expect to accelerate this year.

但2014年前3個季度的經常賬戶盈餘同比增長10%，而且幾乎可以肯定的是，本月發佈的2014年全年GDP數據將會顯示出淨出口對增長的積極貢獻——經濟學家預計今年這種趨勢還會加強。